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BC

Boston College 28 at SMU 38

SMU
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:58 · Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior+1.6Home team on offense+6.8Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score differential+1.1Blowout margin+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:49: Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +4.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 1:03: Grayson James pass complete to Kamari Morales for 13 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +6.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  3. TD · Q3 10:45: Grayson James run for 20 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +13.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:52: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 38 yds for a TD (B. Smith Run For Two-point Conversion) — SMU win probability +11.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:52: Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +21.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:23SMU 4th & 5 at BC 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:02BC 4th & 5 at BC 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:56BC 4th & 2 at SMU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:42SMU 4th & 7 at BC 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:53BC 4th & 5 at SMU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:12BC 4th & 2 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.8%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:51BC 4th & 4 at BC 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:02SMU 4th & 12 at BC 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:27BC 4th & 3 at SMU 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−1.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:51SMU 4th & 18 at SMU 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:59SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:58BC 4th & 1 at BC 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.1%−7.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:11BC 4th & 19 at BC 22, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:08SMU 4th & 2 at BC 5, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.7%−1.7
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−18.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:35SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:49BC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:53SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:03BC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:45BC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:52SMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:52BC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−1.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:08SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:3489% → 89%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.4%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
89.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 8 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
89.2%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
89.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+29
89.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 29 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
89.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 10 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
89.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
88.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 2 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
88.8%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the BC 7Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
88.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
88.5%
Collin Rogers 24 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2112% → 12%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
88.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the BC 25Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
88.1%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
88.1%
Liam Connor punt for 32 yds, downed at the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:1788% → 89%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
88.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 14 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
88.1%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+7
88.1%
Brashard Smith run for 7 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
87.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 12 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
87.9%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
88.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:3112% → 12%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
88.4%
Grayson James run for 5 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
88.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+8
88.1%
(06:09) JAMES, Grayson pass to the left incomplete intended for BOND, Lewis thrown to the BC44, clock 06:06. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on MOSES, Ahmaad enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the BC44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
88.0%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the BC 44Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
87.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 7 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+1
87.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
87.6%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:0889% → 88%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
88.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+2
88.4%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 9
50
-5
88.2%
(02:59) JENNINGS, Kevin pass to the right complete for 15 yards to SMITH, Brashard caught at the BC44 and advanced to the BC35 (PRICE, KP), clock 02:51. PENALTY SMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WILLIAMS, PJ enforced 5 yards from the SMU50 to the SMU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+17
87.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 17 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
88.3%
Boston College Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
88.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 24Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 13
OPP 24
0
88.3%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+6
87.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 6 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
88.1%
Collin Rogers 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5112% → 17%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 8 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
87.7%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
87.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 23 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
87.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
87.5%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+3
87.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 3 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+2
87.7%
(12:55) JAMES, Grayson pass short up the middle incomplete intended for WARD, Treshaun thrown to the SMU34, clock 12:53. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on NETTLES, William enforced at the spot of the foul for 2 yards to the SMU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
87.0%
Jordan McDonald run for 5 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
87.4%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
87.7%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+13
87.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Kamari Morales for 13 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
87.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+8
87.3%
Grayson James run for 8 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 3:4884% → 89%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
84.0%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 7Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+4
83.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 4 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+19
83.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 19 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+36
84.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 36 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
85.6%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+11
85.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 11 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
85.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
85.4%
Kevin Jennings run for 2 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+15
84.7%
(06:01) JENNINGS, Kevin pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SMITH, Brashard thrown to the BC0, clock 05:57. PENALTY BC Pass Interference on CROUCH, Daveon enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the BC4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.7%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4612% → 20%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 7 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
87.9%
(05:16) JAMES, Grayson pass to the left incomplete intended for MORALES, Kamari thrown to the BC38, clock 05:13. PENALTY BC Illegal Touch-Pass on MORALES, Kamari enforced 0 yards from the BC32 to the BC32, penalty results in a loss of down [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
88.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 10 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
87.8%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
88.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 2
50
0
87.3%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 2
50
+19
88.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 19 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
86.5%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-10
86.8%
Grayson James sacked by Mike Lockhart for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 20
OPP 41
+32
88.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 32 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
85.7%
Boston College Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+7
86.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 7 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
80.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Kamari Morales for 13 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
81.4%
SMU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2222% → 22%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
78.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Kamari Morales for no gain to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
77.7%
Grayson James pass intercepted, touchback. Isaiah Nwokobia return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FG
5 plays · 56 yds · 0:2481% → 86%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+45
81.0%
Brashard Smith run for 45 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
83.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 11 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
83.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+41
85.8%
Collin Rogers 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 4:1017% → 33%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
83.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
82.9%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+19
83.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 19 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
82.0%
Jordan McDonald run for 10 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
81.1%
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+19
81.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 19 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
80.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
66.6%
Grayson James run for 20 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5372% → 87%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.0%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 12 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+23
72.6%
Brashard Smith run for 23 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
75.3%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+38
87.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 38 yds for a TD (B. Smith Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5516% → 15%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
83.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
82.9%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
83.7%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+12
84.6%
Liam Connor punt for 45 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 12 yds to the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:4987% → 88%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
87.1%
Brashard Smith run for 8 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
87.5%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
87.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 18 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
87.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 2 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
87.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 7 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+7
87.2%
Brashard Smith run for 7 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
87.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+2
87.9%
Kevin Jennings run for 2 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-6
87.3%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 20Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+37
87.8%
Collin Rogers 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:3112% → 12%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
87.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 11 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
87.7%
Jordan McDonald run for 22 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
86.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
85.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
85.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
86.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+6
86.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 6 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
86.7%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
88.2%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:3689% → 89%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
89.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 9 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+2
89.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
89.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 4
50
+1
89.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the BC 49Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-15
89.3%
SMU Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Unsportsmanlike Conduct on HUDSON, Jordan enforced (-15 Yards) to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 18
OWN 36
+11
88.9%
Isaac Pearson punt for 49 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for 11 yds to the BC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 5:5911% → 37%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
88.9%
Jordan McDonald run for 8 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+8
87.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Kamari Morales for 8 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
87.4%
Jordan McDonald run for 5 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+19
86.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Jordan McDonald for 19 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
85.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+4
85.2%
Jordan McDonald run for 4 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+4
86.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
85.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 13 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
85.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4377% → 80%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
76.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 8 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
78.2%
JENNINGS, Kevin pass to the left incomplete intended for SMITH, Key'Shawn thrown to the SMU45. PENALTY BC Pass Interference on FARRIS, Isaiah enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the SMU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
79.4%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
79.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
76.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
79.8%
Isaac Pearson punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · -7 yds · 2:4828% → 19%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
71.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 8 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
69.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the BC 29Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
74.7%
Jordan McDonald run for no gain to the BC 29Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+2
75.6%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
73.4%
Grayson James run for 1 yd to the BC 32Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
73.9%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-10
78.9%
Grayson James sacked by Kobe Wilson for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 22Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 19
OWN 22
-9
80.6%
Grayson James sacked by Jahfari Harvey for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:5893% → 98%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
93.3%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the BC 12Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+6
94.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 6 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+1
95.6%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the BC 5Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+5
98.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · 25 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
97.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:52
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
-21.7
TD · Q3 10:45
Grayson James run for 20 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
-13.4
TD · Q3 8:52
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 38 yds for a TD (B. Smith Run For Two-point Conversion)
+11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com