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LOU

Louisville 24 at Virginia 20

UVA
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:41 · Carter Schwartz punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 48 , Ethan Davies returns for 9 yds to the UVA 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior−11.0Home team on offense+2.4Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:59: Isaac Brown run for 7 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +7.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:40: Isaac Brown run for 14 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +10.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:26: Will Bettridge 31 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +8.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:03: Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Xavier Brown for 46 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +32.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:55: Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +56.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 11 of 11LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:39UVA 4th & 1 at LOU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:52LOU 4th & 1 at UVA 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%−0.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:13UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:41LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:15UVA 4th & 7 at LOU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:24UVA 4th & 3 at LOU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    44.3%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:24UVA 4th & 3 at LOU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    44.3%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:57LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 12, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:29UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:38LOU 4th & 13 at UVA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−9.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:46UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:26UVA 4th & 9 at LOU 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−8.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:26LOU 4th & 21 at LOU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−5.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:00UVA 4th & 6 at LOU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−12.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:47LOU 4th & 15 at UVA 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−5.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−14.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:33UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 3, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−8.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:48UVA 4th & 10 at LOU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−3.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−6.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:39UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:59LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:40LOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:03UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:55LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1536% → 40%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.7%
Kobe Pace run for 9 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+18
35.9%
Anthony Colandrea run for 18 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
36.2%
Anthony Colandrea run for 13 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
36.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 19 yds to the LOU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
36.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 3 yds to the LOU 13Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+5
37.0%
PENALTY LOU Offside (Dawson,Jared) 5 yards from LOU13 to LOU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+2
37.2%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the LOU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
37.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 1 yd to the LOU 5Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
37.9%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the LOU 2Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
38.1%
Grady Brosterhous run for 1 yd to the LOU 1Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.9%
Grady Brosterhous run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2DOWNS
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:3860% → 58%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.6%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
39.9%
Isaac Brown run for 19 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
39.7%
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
40.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the UVA 47Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-5
40.4%
PENALTY LOU False Start (Mendoza,Jonathan) 5 yards from UVA47 to LOU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+13
41.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
40.8%
Jr. Donald Chaney run for 7 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+4
40.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 4 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
40.8%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
41.0%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+9
41.7%
Tyler Shough run for 9 yds to the UVA 19Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
42.3%
Isaac Brown run for no gain to the UVA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:3143% → 45%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
43.2%
Xavier Brown run for 2 yds to the UVA 17Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+28
43.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 28 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
45.3%
Anthony Colandrea run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 5
50
+6
45.9%
Xavier Brown run for 6 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
45.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
46.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Gibson for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 45Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 11
OPP 45
-6
45.4%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 6 yards to the UVA 49Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 17
OWN 49
+1
44.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 38 yds , Ahmari Huggins-Bruce returns for 1 yd to the LOU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:1755% → 53%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
45.4%
Tyler Shough sacked by Caleb Hardy for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 11Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 13
OWN 11
-5
45.9%
PENALTY LOU False Start (Brooks,Ja'Corey) 5 yards from LOU11 to LOU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 18
OWN 6
-5
46.2%
Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (-5 Yards) to the LOU 5Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 19
OWN 5
+7
46.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 7 yds to the LOU 12Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 12
OWN 12
0
46.9%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 12
OWN 12
+9
47.4%
Carter Schwartz punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 48 , Ethan Davies returns for 9 yds to the UVA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2048% → 48%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
48.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
47.8%
PENALTY UVA False Start 5 yards from UVA48 to UVA43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+8
47.2%
Anthony Colandrea run for 8 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
48.1%
Xavier Brown run for no gain to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
47.5%
Daniel Sparks punt for 21 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain to the LOU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 1:5553% → 62%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
47.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 21 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
46.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 9 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+12
46.0%
Isaac Brown run for 12 yds to the UVA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
45.7%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+23
45.9%
Isaac Brown run for 23 yds to the UVA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
38.3%
Isaac Brown run for 7 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7DOWNS
23 plays · 72 yds · 8:2744% → 47%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.6%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
44.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for 15 yds to the UVA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
46.0%
Xavier Brown run for 8 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
46.9%
Xavier Brown run for no gain to the LOU 48Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+5
46.3%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the LOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
47.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
47.1%
Kobe Pace run for 9 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+3
47.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for 3 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
48.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Gibson for no gain to the LOU 31Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-10
48.7%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Pace,Kobe rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LOU24 (Guerad,Jordan) PENALTY UVA Holding (Stevens,Brian) 10 yards from LOU31 to LOU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 20
OPP 41
+7
47.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 7 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+13
46.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 13 yds to the LOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
49.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 4 yds to the LOU 17Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
49.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+11
48.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 5 yds to the LOU 12 for a 1ST down Louisville Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tamarion McDonald) to the LOU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-7
50.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kameron Courtney for a loss of 7 yards to the LOU 13Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
49.6%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 12Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+9
48.9%
Anthony Colandrea run for 9 yds to the LOU 3Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
47.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
47.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1957% → 51%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
42.9%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 5Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+5
45.8%
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 10Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+2
47.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 2 yds to the LOU 12Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+3
48.7%
Carter Schwartz punt for 43 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 3 yds to the UVA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2550% → 46%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
49.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
49.3%
Anthony Colandrea run for 1 yd to the UVA 47Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 11
OWN 47
-1
47.9%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Adonijah Green for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 46Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
46.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 47 yds , Ahmari Huggins-Bruce returns for no gain to the LOU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
46.5%
Duke Watson run for 3 yds to the LOU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 2:0356% → 60%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
43.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 1 yd to the LOU 21Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+61
44.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 61 yds to the UVA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
39.7%
Isaac Brown run for 6 yds to the UVA 12Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 4
OPP 12
-10
39.7%
(13:24) Shotgun Brown,Isaac rush right for 2 yards gain to the UVA10 (Britton,Anthony) PENALTY LOU Holding (Nygra,Pete) 10 yards from UVA12 to UVA22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+14
40.9%
Virginia Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Caleb Hardy) to the UVA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
39.9%
PENALTY LOU False Start (Bell,Chris) 5 yards from UVA08 to UVA13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
0
40.3%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
40.3%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
42.3%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
40.2%
Brock Travelstead 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:3739% → 37%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
38.8%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Ramon Puryear for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 12Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+13
38.5%
Anthony Colandrea run for 13 yds to the UVA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.7%
Noah Vaughn run for 5 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
38.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
37.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 16 yds , T.J. Capers returns for no gain to the UVA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
23.5%
Isaac Brown run for 14 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 5:0325% → 32%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the UVA 25Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 5 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
24.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 6 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
25.3%
(09:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass incomplete short left to Fields,Malachi thrown to UVA44 PENALTY UVA Holding (Steen,Blake) 10 yards from UVA36 to UVA26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 20
OWN 26
0
24.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+6
24.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 6 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+23
23.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 23 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
26.6%
Anthony Colandrea run for 7 yds to the LOU 38Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+24
26.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 24 yds to the LOU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
27.6%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the LOU 17Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 13
OPP 17
0
25.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+4
23.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 4 yds to the LOU 13Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
32.1%
Will Bettridge 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:5473% → 71%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
26.7%
Louisville Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chris Bell) to the LOU 13Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+1
27.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 1 yd to the LOU 14Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
28.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
29.0%
Brady Hodges punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:1728% → 36%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
27.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 3 yds to the UVA 43Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
27.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 9 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
29.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
28.5%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+14
27.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 14 yds to the LOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
30.5%
Malachi Fields pass complete to Tyler Neville for 22 yds to the LOU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
32.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
32.5%
Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the LOU 6Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
30.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
35.7%
Will Bettridge 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:0268% → 68%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
31.8%
Isaac Brown run for 12 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
29.9%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 40Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+19
29.5%
Isaac Brown run for 19 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
27.8%
Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the UVA 40Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+22
27.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 22 yds to the UVA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
26.8%
Duke Watson run for 4 yds to the UVA 14Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
26.7%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the UVA 16Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 8
OPP 16
-7
26.8%
Tyler Shough sacked by Kam Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the UVA 23Similar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+41
31.7%
Brock Travelstead 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:3636% → 74%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
36.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
50
+2
41.7%
Xavier Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
41.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 7 yds to the LOU 41Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-5
41.6%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Steen,Blake) 5 yards from LOU41 to LOU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+46
73.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Xavier Brown for 46 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19INT
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:1234% → 35%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+45
66.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 45 yds to the UVA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
60.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jr. Donald Chaney for no gain to the UVA 37Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-3
60.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for a loss of 3 yards to the UVA 40Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 13
OPP 40
0
65.0%
Tyler Shough pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:4173% → 73%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
72.8%
Kobe Pace run for 8 yds to the UVA 11Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+1
73.5%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 10Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 3
OWN 10
-5
71.7%
(07:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass complete short left to Pace,Kobe caught at UVA16, for 6 yards to the UVA16 (Davis,Jurriente) PENALTY UVA Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Stevens,Brian) 5 yards from UVA10 to UVA05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 5
0
72.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 8
OWN 5
-2
71.4%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Sanker,Jonas) 2 yards from UVA05 to UVA03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 10
OWN 3
0
72.7%
Daniel Sparks punt for 56 yds , Ahmari Huggins-Bruce returns for no gain to the LOU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:3033% → 92%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
66.9%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+18
69.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 18 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
62.1%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
62.0%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+9
63.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 9 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
61.7%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+18
62.0%
Isaac Brown run for 18 yds to the UVA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
59.1%
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the UVA 22Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+14
62.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 14 yds to the UVA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
64.5%
Duke Watson run for 3 yds to the UVA 5Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
7.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:0115% → 13%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
15.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 8 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
17.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 8 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
17.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 8 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+12
20.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Andre Greene Jr. for 12 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
17.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
17.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
15.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
12.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:4395% → 96%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
5.0%
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 40Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+8
5.2%
Duke Watson run for 8 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
3.9%
Duke Watson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:55
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-56.8
TD · Q4 10:03
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Xavier Brown for 46 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
+32.2
TD · Q3 10:40
Isaac Brown run for 14 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com