2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:38 · Ivan Mora punt for 50 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:32: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 31 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +3.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:34: Phil Mafah run for 1 yd for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:18: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Michael Frogge for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +6.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:31: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 8 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +3.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:52: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 9 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 13:02WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it10.8%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q1 11:55CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snapGo for it88.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.7%average punt
- Q1 11:55CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snapGo for it88.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.7%average punt
- Q1 9:08WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snapGo for it12.5%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.5%average punt
- Q1 3:41CLEM 4th & 21 at CLEM 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snapGo for it84.1%−0.58% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.7%average punt
- Q2 6:46CLEM 4th & 2 at WAKE 2, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.8%48% to convertField goal84.0%−0.894% to makePunt80.9%−3.9average punt
- Q2 0:30WAKE 4th & 15 at WAKE 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snapGo for it10.1%−1.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.1%average punt
- Q3 8:26WAKE 4th & 25 at WAKE 10, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it4.2%−1.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q3 5:38WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 35, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q3 4:10CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 19, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%average punt
- Q4 4:28WAKE 4th & 9 at CLEM 26, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.131% to convertField goal0.2%64% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 1:32WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.0%97% to makeGo for two19.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:39CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.1%97% to makeGo for two81.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:34CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%97% to makeGo for two84.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:46CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.2%97% to makeGo for two87.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:18WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.9%97% to makeGo for two15.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:31CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.2%97% to makeGo for two87.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:52CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:03CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:55CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:587% → 7%
CLEMDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 1:0793% → 92%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
7.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 18 yds to the CLEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
7.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 5 yds to the CLEM 38Similar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+7
7.8%
Aidan Swanson punt for 48 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 7 yds to the WAKE 21Similar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+7
7.8%
Aidan Swanson punt for 48 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 7 yds to the WAKE 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 2:478% → 9%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
7.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 5 yds to the WAKE 26Similar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
7.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 9 yds to the WAKE 43Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
7.9%
PENALTY Clemso Offside (Capehart,DeMonte) 5 yards from Wake F43 to Wake F48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
8.8%
Ivan Mora punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 24 yds · 5:2791% → 89%
Q1 9:08
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+8
8.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 8 yds to the CLEM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-1
8.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for a loss of 1 yard to the CLEM 29Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
8.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 12 yds to the CLEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+5
8.7%
run for 5 yds to the CLEM 41 fumbled, recovered by CLEM Cade KlubnikSimilar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 21
OWN 36
+3
11.4%
Aidan Swanson punt for 40 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 3 yds to the WAKE 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5TD10 plays · 73 yds · 2:0911% → 15%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
11.3%
PENALTY Wake F False Start (Trost,Keagen) 5 yards from Wake F27 to Wake F22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+10
11.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 10 yds to the WAKE 32Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+8
11.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 8 yds to the WAKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
11.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete deep right to Morin,Taylor thrown to Clemso16 PENALTY Clemso Pass Interference (Lewis,Shelton) 15 yards from Clemso48 to Clemso33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+31
15.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 31 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5385% → 87%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
14.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 14 yds to the WAKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
15.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 3 yds to the WAKE 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+19
15.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 19 yds to the WAKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+22
12.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 22 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7INT3 plays · -3 yds · 0:3414% → 14%
CLEMDrive 8TD2 plays · 23 yds · 0:2787% → 90%
WAKEDrive 9INT7 plays · 27 yds · 2:2111% → 13%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
11.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete short left to Frogge,Michael thrown to Wake F47, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Clemso Pass Interference (Carter,Barrett) 11 yard from Wake F36 to Wake F47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD9 plays · 57 yds · 3:2789% → 91%
WAKEDrive 11TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:289% → 16%
Q2 6:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
9.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 4 yds to the WAKE 31Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
9.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete short middle to Alexander,Deuce thrown to Wake F38, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Clemso Pass Interference (Barnes,Khalil) 6 yards from Wake F31 to Wake F37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+38
9.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 38 yds to the CLEM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
16.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Michael Frogge for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4787% → 92%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
12.1%
Phil Mafah run for 15 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST down Wake Forest Penalty, personal foul (Bryce Ganious) to the WAKE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+7
11.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 7 yds to the WAKE 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
7.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 8 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT11 plays · 6 yds · 1:019% → 10%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 4 yds to the WAKE 29Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
9.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 7 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
9.4%
PENALTY Wake F False Start (Gordon,DeVonte) 5 yards from Wake F36 to Wake F31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 15
OWN 31
-10
9.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank rush right for 4 yards gain to the Wake F35, out of bounds at Wake F35 PENALTY Wake F Holding (Gordon,DeVonte) 10 yards from Wake F31 to Wake F21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+4
9.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 4 yds to the WAKE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14END OF HALF7 plays · 31 yds · 0:3092% → 93%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
8.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 6 yds to the CLEM 28Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+13
8.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 13 yds to the CLEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
7.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 7 yds to the WAKE 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0891% → 97%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
9.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 16 yds to the CLEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
8.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 19 yds to the WAKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
8.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Misun Kelley for 11 yds to the WAKE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
8.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Misun Kelley for no gain to the WAKE 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
8.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 6 yds to the WAKE 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-5
8.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mafah,Phil rush right for 16 yards gain to the Wake F07 (Patterson,Davaughn) PENALTY Clemso Illegal Motion (Moore,T.J.) 5 yards from Wake F23 to Wake F28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+14
8.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 14 yds to the WAKE 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
3.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 9 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -15 yds · 1:265% → 4%
CLEMDrive 17TD3 plays · 53 yds · 1:2397% → 99%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
3.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 10 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
3.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 15 yds to the WAKE 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
1.1%
Antonio Williams pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 28 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 1:251% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
WAKEDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -21 yds · 1:511% → 1%
Q3 4:10
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-15
1.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Kern,Michael pass incomplete short middle to Claiborne,Demond thrown to Clemso35 PENALTY Wake F Illegal Use Of Hands (Trost,Keagen) 15 yards from Clemso46 to Wake F39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 26
OWN 39
-5
1.0%
Michael Kern sacked by Wade Woodaz for a loss of 5 yards to the WAKE 34Similar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 31
OWN 34
0
0.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD18 plays · 87 yds · 8:2499% → 100%
Q3 2:19
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+9
1.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Josh Sapp for 9 yds to the CLEM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
1.1%
Cade Klubnik run for 3 yds to the CLEM 20 Cade Klubnik fumbled, recovered by CLEM Cade KlubnikSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
0.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 2 yds to the WAKE 46Similar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
0.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 3 yds to the WAKE 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22DOWNS10 plays · 49 yds · 4:270% → 0%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.2%
Michael Kern pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 6 yds to the WAKE 31Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+14
0.2%
Michael Kern pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 14 yds to the CLEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
0.2%
Michael Kern sacked by Ricardo Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the CLEM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23END OF GAME8 plays · 49 yds · 4:28100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:18
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Michael Frogge for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q3 9:52
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 9 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q1 1:32
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 31 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
+3.3