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CAL

California 15 at Pittsburgh 17

PITT
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:46 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense+7.5Pregame prior+4.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score differential+2.6Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:07: Desmond Reid 5 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +3.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:58: Desmond Reid 72 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +4.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:30: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 19 yds for a TD (C. Rogers Rush Attempt, Two-Point Conversion failed) — CAL win probability +25.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:37: Timeout California, clock 04:37 — PITT win probability +7.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:47: Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 25 — PITT win probability +17.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 9CAL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:46PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:56PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:06CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:58PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.6%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:54CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 46, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:04PITT 4th & 9 at CAL 40, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%−0.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:57CAL 4th & 6 at PITT 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:41PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 34, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:46CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:56PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:41CAL 4th & 17 at CAL 1, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−5.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:35CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 22, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−2.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:17CAL 4th & 24 at CAL 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−5.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:34PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 30, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:19PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−4.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:50CAL 4th & 7 at PITT 22, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−14.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−26.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:47PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 28, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−6.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:24CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 15, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:56CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:07PITT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:58PITT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:30CAL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    37.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0561% → 61%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
60.8%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
60.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 7 yds to the PITT 22Similar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+2
60.8%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the PITT 24Similar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
60.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4539% → 41%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
60.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 10 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
60.8%
Mikey Matthews run for 6 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+12
60.6%
Jaivian Thomas run for 12 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
60.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the PITT 46Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-10
60.4%
Mendoza, Fernando rush for 8 yards to the PITTSBURGH38, PENALTY CAL holding (Session, T.J.) 10 yards to the CAL44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 19
OWN 44
0
60.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jonathan BradySimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 19
OWN 44
+23
60.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 23 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
60.2%
Jaivian Thomas run for 4 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-3
60.1%
Josiah Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 32Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+11
60.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the PITT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
58.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 21 yds for a TD (L. Wilson Pass attempt, Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4659% → 63%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
59.4%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the PITT 29 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Nate Burrell) to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
59.9%
Eli Holstein sacked by David Reese for a loss of 4 yards to the PITT 40 Eli Holstein fumbled, recovered by PITT Branson Taylor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+9
59.4%
Eli Holstein run for 9 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
59.7%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 5
OWN 49
+19
59.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 19 yds to the CAL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
60.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 5 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+8
60.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 8 yds to the CAL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
60.0%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Desmond ReidSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
60.0%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+14
59.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 9 yds to the CAL 10 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Personal Foul (Aidan Keanaaina) to the CAL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
62.8%
Desmond Reid 5 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:5939% → 38%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
61.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 9 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-9
60.8%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the CAL 35 California Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trond Grizzell) to the CAL 25Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the CAL 26Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
61.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 11 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
61.2%
Kadarius Calloway run for 4 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
60.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 5 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-5
61.0%
California Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the CAL 41Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+4
61.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for 4 yds to the PITT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:0562% → 65%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
61.6%
Desmond Reid run for 6 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+3
61.7%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 28
0
61.4%
Eli Holstein run for no gain to the PITT 28Similar
Q2 14:58
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+72
65.4%
Desmond Reid 72 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4833% → 32%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 9 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
66.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 3 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
66.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
66.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 6 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
66.6%
Fernando Mendoza run for no gain to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
67.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 48 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for no gain to the PITT 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:4567% → 71%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
67.2%
Daniel Carter run for 8 yds to the PITT 14Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+15
67.4%
Holstein, Eli pass incomplete to Williams Jr., Raphael, PENALTY CAL pass interference (Hearns III, Lu-Magia) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
67.7%
Daniel Carter run for 15 yds to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
69.0%
Holstein, Eli pass incomplete to Williams Jr., Raphael, PENALTY CAL pass interference (Hearns III, Lu-Magia) 15 yards to the CAL41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
69.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the CAL 40Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
69.4%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
68.8%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 9
OPP 40
+58
71.2%
Ben Sauls 58 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:0330% → 30%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.0%
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the CAL 26Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
70.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 1 yd to the CAL 27Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
71.4%
Mendoza, Fernando pass incomplete to Hunter, Nyziah, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Lynum, Tamon) 15 yards to the CAL42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CAL.Similar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
69.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 14 yds to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
69.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+19
69.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 4 yds to the PITT 40 for a 1ST down Pittsburgh Penalty, Illegal Block (Rashad Battle) to the PITT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
68.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the PITT 24Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-3
68.9%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 27Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+6
71.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 6 yds to the PITT 21Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
70.2%
Ryan Coe 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1170% → 70%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 7 yds to the PITT 32Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
71.6%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the PITT 34Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
71.2%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
70.0%
Caleb Junko punt for 55 yds, downed at the CAL 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10END OF HALF
15 plays · 35 yds · 4:3228% → 27%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
71.7%
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the CAL 11Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+6
72.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 6 yds to the CAL 17Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+6
72.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 6 yds to the CAL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
72.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 12 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
71.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the CAL 36Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
71.7%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+21
72.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 21 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
69.6%
Mendoza, Fernando pass incomplete to Hunter, Nyziah, PENALTY PITTSBURGH 12 men on the field 5 yards to the PITTSBURGH36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 5
OPP 36
+7
69.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 7 yds to the PITT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
67.8%
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the PITT 29Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-2
68.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 31Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 12
OPP 31
-8
71.6%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Braylan Lovelace for a loss of 8 yards to the PITT 39Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 20
OPP 39
-15
73.5%
California Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Will McDonald) to the CAL 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:1127% → 25%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.4%
Jaivian Thomas run for 5 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
72.9%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 28Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
74.5%
California Penalty, False Start (Nick Morrow) to the CAL 23Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
75.2%
Mendoza, Fernando pass incomplete to Endries, Jack, PENALTY PITTSBURGH roughing passer (Overman, Jake) 15 yards to the CAL38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CAL.Similar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
72.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Kadarius Calloway for no gain to the CAL 38Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-10
73.2%
Mendoza, Fernando pass incomplete to Grizzell, Trond, PENALTY CAL holding (Reimer, Rush) 10 yards to the CAL28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+13
74.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 13 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
73.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
75.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:4676% → 76%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
75.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 7 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+6
76.3%
Desmond Reid run for 6 yds to the PITT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
76.3%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Desmond ReidSimilar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+14
76.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 14 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
78.1%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
78.4%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
77.4%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Jake OvermanSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 7
OWN 49
-5
75.9%
Caleb Junko punt for 38 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 8 Mikey Matthews fumbled, recovered by CAL Mikey MatthewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 2:1124% → 22%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
75.7%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Braylan Lovelace for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 5Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+4
76.1%
Jaivian Thomas run for 4 yds to the CAL 9Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 9
OWN 9
-8
77.4%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Kyle Louis for a loss of 8 yards to the CAL 1Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 17
OWN 1
0
78.1%
California Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the CAL 1Similar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 17
OWN 1
+14
78.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for 14 yds to the CAL 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
80.4%
Eli Holstein pass intercepted, touchback. Nohl Williams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5424% → 21%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Nyziah HunterSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
76.1%
Jaivian Thomas run for 2 yds to the CAL 22Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
78.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jonathan BradySimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
79.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 61 yds, downed at the PITT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16INT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:5378% → 82%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
78.1%
Desmond Reid run for no gain to the PITT 17Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+23
79.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 23 yds to the PITT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
82.0%
Desmond Reid run for 1 yd to the PITT 41Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
81.8%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the PITT 45Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+10
82.7%
Eli Holstein run for 10 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
84.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Jake Overman for 2 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-11
84.3%
Eli Holstein sacked by Teddye Buchanan for a loss of 11 yards to the PITT 46Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 19
OWN 46
-20
82.0%
Eli Holstein pass intercepted Cam Sidney return for 20 yds to the PITT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:1623% → 17%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
77.5%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Jimmy Scott for a loss of 6 yards to the PITT 46Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 16
OPP 46
0
79.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Josiah MartinSimilar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 16
OPP 46
-8
80.9%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Jimmy Scott for a loss of 8 yards to the CAL 46Similar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 24
OWN 46
0
82.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for no gain to the PITT 8 Kenny Johnson fumbled, recovered by PITT Kenny JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3882% → 83%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
82.2%
Desmond Reid run for 1 yd to the PITT 9Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+13
82.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 13 yds to the PITT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
83.4%
Eli Holstein run for 1 yd to the PITT 23Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+3
83.3%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+4
82.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 4 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+3
83.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 51 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 3 yds to the CAL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:5817% → 45%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
82.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 20 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
81.2%
Jaivian Thomas run for 2 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+9
81.1%
Jaivian Thomas run for 9 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
79.8%
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the PITT 46Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+27
80.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 27 yds to the PITT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
54.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 19 yds for a TD (C. Rogers Rush Attempt, Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5867% → 64%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
66.5%
Desmond Reid run for 5 yds to the PITT 35Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
68.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 8 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
69.8%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Raphael Williams Jr.Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
68.7%
Eli Holstein pass incomplete to Censere LeeSimilar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
66.4%
Eli Holstein run for no gain to the PITT 43Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
64.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21MISSED FG
17 plays · 58 yds · 6:2537% → 36%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
63.5%
Josiah Martin run for 7 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
62.4%
Jaivian Thomas run for 2 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+13
62.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 13 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
58.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 7 yds to the CAL 49Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
56.7%
Jaivian Thomas run for 4 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
56.9%
Fernando Mendoza run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 48Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-3
58.9%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Jimmy Scott for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 49Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+15
65.9%
Mendoza, Fernando pass incomplete to Grizzell, Trond, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Brookins, Cruce) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CAL.Similar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
59.5%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 7 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
56.7%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 4 yds to the PITT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
56.8%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for no gain to the PITT 25Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
58.1%
Fernando Mendoza run for 1 yd to the PITT 24Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+2
60.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the PITT 22Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
64.2%
Ryan Coe 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:0081% → 87%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
81.4%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-4
83.3%
Eli Holstein run for a loss of 4 yards to the PITT 21Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+7
82.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 7 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
86.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CAL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1717% → 12%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
84.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
85.7%
California Penalty, False Start (Mason Starling) to the CAL 15Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
87.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+11
88.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mason Starling for 11 yds to the CAL 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
93.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:30
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 19 yds for a TD (C. Rogers Rush Attempt, Two-Point Conversion failed)
-25.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:47
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 25
+17.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:37
Timeout California, clock 04:37
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com