2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreVT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:27 · Justin Lamson sacked by James Jennette for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:54: Bhayshul Tuten run for 7 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +19.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 17 yds to the VT 42 for a 1ST down — STAN win probability +5.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:01: Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 55 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +9.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:00: Micah Ford pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 19 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +9.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:56: Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 20 yds to the STAN 15 for a 1ST down — VT win probability +5.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 9:29STAN 4th & 13 at VT 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snapGo for it31.0%−0.121% to convertField goalTheir call31.1%45% to makePunt31.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:41STAN 4th & 1 at VT 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.5%71% to convertField goal29.4%−1.183% to makePunt26.0%−4.5average punt
- Q2 12:54VT 4th & 6 at VT 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snapGo for it68.9%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.2%average punt
- Q2 8:44STAN 4th & 7 at VT 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snapGo for it30.6%−<0.137% to convertField goal29.5%−1.127% to makePuntTheir call30.6%average punt
- Q2 1:54VT 4th & 1 at STAN 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.3%70% to convertField goal72.4%−1.991% to makePunt68.1%−6.2average punt
- Q2 0:17STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snapGo for it19.8%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.1%average punt
- Q3 12:06STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 30, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snapGo for it11.5%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.7%average punt
- Q3 8:16VT 4th & 9 at VT 34, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snapGo for it93.8%−1.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.8%average punt
- Q3 2:29STAN 4th & 9 at VT 44, down 21Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%−0.232% to convertField goal4.4%−0.827% to makePunt5.2%average punt
- Q4 14:40VT 4th & 6 at VT 29, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snapGo for it88.8%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.5%average punt
- Q4 6:28STAN 4th & 15 at STAN 20, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q4 2:33VT 4th & 6 at STAN 29, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%−<0.158% to makePunt98.7%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:40STAN 4th & 2 at VT 42, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%57% to convertField goal0.5%−0.230% to makePunt0.5%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 6:33VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.3%97% to makeGo for two69.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:54VT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.6%97% to makeGo for two77.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:01VT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.3%97% to makeGo for two88.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:00STAN Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.7%97% to makeGo for two11.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:28VT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSTANDrive 1MISSED FG11 plays · 40 yds · 5:3029% → 31%
Q1 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
29.1%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Ismael Cisse for 10 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+17
30.4%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Sam Roush for 17 yds to the VT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-5
31.5%
Justin Lamson sacked by Aeneas Peebles for a loss of 5 yards to the VT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:5269% → 71%
Q1 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+13
31.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 13 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
31.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 13 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
28.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 9 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3FUMBLE14 plays · 47 yds · 6:0830% → 31%
Q1 5:40
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+9
29.5%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 9 yds to the VT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
30.2%
LAMSON, Justin sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the STA50 (STEVENS, Aycen), clock 04:49. PENALTY VTU Offsides on PEEBLES, Aeneas enforced 5 yards from the VTU40 to the VTU35 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
30.7%
Justin Lamson run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 3 Justin Lamson fumbled, recovered by VT Antwaun Powell-Ryland A. Powell-Ryland return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1670% → 70%
STANDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 4:0030% → 31%
Q2 8:44
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
30.8%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD15 plays · 88 yds · 6:4366% → 85%
STANDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4415% → 17%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
14.9%
(01:04) FORD, Micah rush to the right for no gain to the STA36 (KELLER, Jaden), out of bounds, clock 01:02. PENALTY STA Holding on BACHMEIER, Tiger enforced 10 yards from the STA36 to the STA26 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+6
16.1%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Micah Ford for 6 yds to the STAN 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8END OF HALF4 plays · 3 yds · 0:1786% → 86%
VTDrive 9TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:5981% → 91%
STANDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5512% → 11%
Q3 12:06
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+6
11.4%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 51 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 6 yds to the VT 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 3:5092% → 94%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
7.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 1 yd to the VT 23Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+14
8.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 14 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-5
7.7%
Kyron Drones sacked by Tevarua Tafiti for a loss of 5 yards to the VT 34Similar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
6.0%
Peter Moore punt for 42 yds , Collin Wright returns for no gain to the STAN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12TD14 plays · 80 yds · 7:168% → 15%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 5
OWN 40
-5
9.1%
Justin Lamson sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 35 Justin Lamson fumbled, recovered by STAN Justin Lamson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
9.5%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 3 yds to the VT 42Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-1
9.6%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 43Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 9
OPP 44
+11
4.6%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 11 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
5.1%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 9 yds to the VT 24Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
14.9%
Micah Ford pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 19 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2089% → 89%
STANDrive 14INT8 plays · 28 yds · 3:4412% → 11%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
11.6%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 12 yds to the STAN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-16
11.4%
Micah Ford pass intercepted Keonta Jenkins return for 16 yds to the STAN 35Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-13
11.4%
Justin Lamson pass intercepted Keonta Jenkins return for 13 yds to the STAN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15TD8 plays · 35 yds · 3:2894% → 99%
STANDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:001% → 1%
VTDrive 17FG10 plays · 31 yds · 3:5599% → 100%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.8%
Bhayshul Tuten run for no gain to the STAN 49 Bhayshul Tuten fumbled, recovered by VT Bhayshul Tuten B. Tuten return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18END OF 4TH QUARTER11 plays · 16 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 2:02
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+10
0.3%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Sam Roush for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
50
-5
0.3%
Justin Lamson sacked by Malachi Madison for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 45Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 15
OPP 43
-7
0.2%
Justin Lamson sacked by James Jennette for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:54
Bhayshul Tuten run for 7 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
-19.6
TD · Q3 1:00
Micah Ford pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 19 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q3 13:01
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 55 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
-9.6