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SMU

SMU 34 at Louisville 27

LOU
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+18.3LOU 54.5%Donald Chaney run for 1 yd for a TD(Brock Travelstead KICK)AWAY 24 - HOME 20 · Q3 9:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:56 · Donald Chaney run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense−1.4Pregame prior+4.8Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:51: Kevin Jennings run for 59 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +8.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:56: Donald Chaney run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +18.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:19: Collin Rogers 43 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +8.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:40: Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 86 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +17.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:39: LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +29.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 2:51LOU 4th & 6 at SMU 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.9%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−2.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:11SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:13LOU 4th & 22 at SMU 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−1.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    59.6%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:23LOU 4th & 11 at SMU 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:17SMU 4th & 6 at LOU 38, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%
    38% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:56LOU 4th & 1 at SMU 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−12.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:19SMU 4th & 8 at LOU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−9.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:46SMU 4th & 11 at LOU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:08LOU 4th & 1 at SMU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−4.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−18.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:14SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 27, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:06LOU 4th & 9 at SMU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:45LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.7%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:34LOU 4th & 17 at SMU 19, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.6 ptsWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%−2.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−6.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:39SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:00LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:24SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:51SMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:56LOU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:40LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:39SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2038% → 40%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
61.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 33 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
61.8%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+13
61.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 13 yds to the LOU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
61.6%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the LOU 24Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+9
61.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 9 yds to the LOU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
61.5%
Kevin Jennings run for 4 yds to the LOU 11Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+6
61.4%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the LOU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
60.2%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:3861% → 63%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
60.6%
Donald Chaney run for 3 yds to the LOU 38Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-1
60.6%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 37Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+58
60.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 58 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
60.6%
Tyler Shough run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 6Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
62.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 6 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3538% → 43%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
61.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 31 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
60.8%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the LOU 43Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+15
60.8%
Louisville Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tayon Holloway) to the LOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
60.6%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the LOU 27Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+22
60.3%
Kevin Jennings run for 22 yds to the LOU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
60.2%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LOU 10Similar
Q1 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
57.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 10 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:2558% → 60%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
58.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 29 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
59.0%
Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+5
58.8%
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
59.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 6 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-2
59.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
58.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
59.9%
Brock Travelstead 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:3741% → 41%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
59.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 11 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
57.8%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 34 fumbled, recovered by SMU Roderick Daniels Jr. R. Daniels Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+6
58.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 6 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+4
58.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
58.7%
Isaac Pearson punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:5058% → 56%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
58.2%
Donald Chaney run for 4 yds to the LOU 24Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
58.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Donald Chaney for 7 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
58.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
58.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 10 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
59.3%
Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LOU 33Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+15
57.5%
(11:29) SHOUGH, Tyler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROOKS, Ja'Corey thrown to the SMU35, clock 11:30. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on CROSSLEY, Brandon enforced 15 yards to the LOU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
59.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 5 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+15
59.8%
Isaac Brown run for 15 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-12
60.4%
Tyler Shough sacked by Elijah Roberts for a loss of 12 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 22
OPP 44
0
57.8%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 22
OPP 44
0
56.9%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 22
OPP 44
0
55.7%
Brady Hodges punt for 22 yds, downed at the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:1044% → 55%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
56.3%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+9
56.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 9 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
54.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 2 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-10
54.4%
(07:49) JENNINGS, Kevin pass to the right complete for 10 yards to DIXON, Kelvontay caught at the SMU45 and advanced to the SMU45, End of Play, clock 07:45. PENALTY SMU Holding on BYRD, Savion enforced 10 yards from the SMU35 to the SMU25 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+16
55.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 16 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+59
45.0%
Kevin Jennings run for 59 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:1346% → 45%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
46.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 13 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
46.8%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+9
46.4%
Keyjuan Brown run for 9 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
46.2%
Keyjuan Brown run for 1 yd to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
46.7%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+12
45.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 12 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-8
46.5%
Tyler Shough sacked by Cameron Robertson for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 18
OPP 31
+7
45.1%
Donald Chaney run for 7 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
43.4%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+41
44.9%
Brock Travelstead 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 2:0356% → 64%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.9%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
43.1%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
42.7%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.3%
Kevin Jennings run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
42.7%
Kevin Jennings run for 13 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
39.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 10 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
38.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
38.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+4
39.0%
Kevin Jennings run for 4 yds to the LOU 38Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+55
35.7%
Collin Rogers 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
38.7%
(00:11) [SG] Kneel down by TEAM at LOU16 (team loss of 1), clock 00:03.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:5439% → 55%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
38.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 7 yds to the LOU 29Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+53
39.1%
Isaac Brown run for 53 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
42.0%
Caullin Lacy run for 9 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+4
41.4%
Donald Chaney run for 4 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
40.9%
Donald Chaney run for no gain to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
40.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 2 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
36.9%
Tyler Shough run for 2 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.5%
Donald Chaney run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:3650% → 62%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
49.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 33 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
46.5%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 9 yds to the LOU 33Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+5
45.7%
(09:14) DANIELS, JR., Roderick rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the LOU30 (QUINN, T.J.), clock 09:13. PENALTY LOU Offsides on THORNTON, Corey enforced 5 yards from the LOU33 to the LOU28 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
45.6%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the LOU 22Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+2
45.4%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the LOU 20Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 2
OPP 20
-1
46.1%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 21Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 3
OPP 21
-5
46.0%
SMU Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the LOU 26Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
37.7%
Collin Rogers 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 90 yds · 1:2942% → 59%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
41.5%
Donald Chaney run for no gain to the LOU 10Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
41.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 4 yds to the LOU 14Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+86
58.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 86 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:5243% → 44%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.8%
Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Guerad) to the LOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-7
51.2%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 7 yards to the LOU 39Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 17
OPP 39
0
53.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+6
55.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 6 yds to the LOU 33Similar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+50
56.4%
Collin Rogers 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:3261% → 63%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
61.0%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+16
61.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 16 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
64.2%
Isaac Brown run for 13 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
65.0%
Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+1
66.7%
Keyjuan Brown run for 1 yd to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
65.0%
Tyler Shough run for 1 yd to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
66.9%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
66.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 9 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
65.2%
Donald Chaney run for no gain to the SMU 19Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
63.2%
Donald Chaney run for no gain to the SMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5345% → 42%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
55.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
55.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 8 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
55.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+8
58.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 52 yds , Ahmari Huggins-Bruce returns for 8 yds to the LOU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5461% → 60%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
60.9%
Isaac Brown run for 12 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
63.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 1
50
+2
65.2%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
65.3%
Caullin Lacy run for 1 yd to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
65.4%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
63.3%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
60.2%
Brady Hodges punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 3:2145% → 84%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
55.2%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+4
55.0%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+4
56.0%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
54.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 17 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
50.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 17 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
49.0%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the LOU 38Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
48.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+6
49.6%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the LOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
47.1%
Brashard Smith run for 19 yds to the LOU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
45.5%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the LOU 7Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+5
45.4%
JENNINGS, Kevin pass up the middle incomplete intended for DIXON, Kelvontay thrown to the LOU0; QB hurried by WATTS, Antonio, clock 06:49. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on THORNTON, Corey enforced 5 yards to the LOU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
45.4%
(06:42) JENNINGS, Kevin pass short to the right incomplete intended for HIBNER, Matthew thrown to the LOU0; QB hurried by GILLOTTE, Ashton, clock 06:43. PENALTY LOU Offsides enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the LOU2 to the LOU1 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19INT
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:0325% → 18%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
25.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 6 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
25.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
24.1%
Tyler Shough run for no gain to the LOU 34Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+32
21.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 32 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
30.9%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+12
30.5%
SMU Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on ROBERTSON, Cameron enforced (Cameron Robertson) to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-9
31.4%
Tyler Shough sacked by Kori Roberson Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 19
OPP 21
+1
27.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 1 yd to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 18
OPP 20
+1
23.4%
Tyler Shough run for 1 yd to the SMU 19Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 17
OPP 19
0
18.1%
Tyler Shough pass intercepted, touchback. Isaiah Nwokobia return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20END OF GAME
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:5389% → 95%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
11.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+11
9.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
9.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 18 yds to the LOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
6.4%
(01:59) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at LOU48 (team loss of 2), clock 01:51.Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-1
5.0%
(01:18) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at LOU49 (team loss of 1), clock 01:12.Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 13
OPP 49
-1
4.7%
(00:34) Kneel down by TEAM at LOU50 (team loss of 1), clock 00:29.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:39
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
-29
TD · Q3 9:56
Donald Chaney run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+18.3
TD · Q3 5:40
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 86 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com