2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:12 · Alex Mastromanno punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:02: Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 23 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +3.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:11: Brock Glenn pass complete to Amaree Williams for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Nolan Hauser 25 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +2.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:36: Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — FSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 6:38: Nolan Hauser 31 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 13:41CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snapGo for it83.9%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.0%average punt
- Q1 12:05FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.6%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%average punt
- Q1 6:33CLEM 4th & 7 at FSU 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snapGo for it80.5%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call80.5%89% to makePunt79.7%−0.9average punt
- Q1 4:04FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snapGo for it19.5%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.7%average punt
- Q2 7:12CLEM 4th & 14 at FSU 21, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snapGo for it80.4%−0.617% to convertField goalTheir call81.1%74% to makePunt79.2%−1.9average punt
- Q2 4:58FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 16, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snapGo for it16.5%−1.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.7%average punt
- Q2 1:51CLEM 4th & 6 at FSU 21, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snapGo for it81.2%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call81.3%74% to makePunt79.3%−2.0average punt
- Q2 1:12FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 33, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.5%−0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q2 0:00CLEM 4th & 3 at FSU 8, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snapGo for it86.3%47% to convertField goalTheir call85.6%−0.890% to makePunt80.2%−6.1average punt
- Q3 11:23FSU 4th & 3 at CLEM 43, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.4%52% to convertField goal12.7%−1.728% to makePunt13.3%−1.0average punt
- Q3 8:49FSU 4th & 16 at CLEM 41, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snapGo for it12.1%−0.916% to convertField goal12.6%−0.432% to makePuntTheir call13.0%average punt
- Q3 5:00CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 48, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snapGo for it90.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.8%average punt
- Q3 4:06FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 5, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snapGo for it9.1%−1.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.5%average punt
- Q3 0:24CLEM 4th & 7 at FSU 8, up 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.1%−0.329% to convertField goalTheir call92.4%90% to makePunt87.6%−4.8average punt
- Q4 15:00FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 48, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.0%−1.0average punt
- Q4 15:00FSU 4th & 9 at CLEM 45, down 16Close callWent for it · 11.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.4%−0.332% to convertField goal10.6%−1.125% to makePunt11.7%average punt
- Q4 6:38CLEM 4th & 8 at FSU 14, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snapGo for it86.8%−0.731% to convertField goalTheir call87.5%84% to makePunt80.0%−7.4average punt
- Q4 5:39FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 20, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q4 1:54CLEM 4th & 4 at FSU 7, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.0%41% to convertField goalTheir call96.8%−0.291% to makePunt94.6%−2.4average punt
- Q4 1:02FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 31, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.2%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 3:20CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.2%97% to makeGo for two82.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:02CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.5%97% to makeGo for two85.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:11FSU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.2%97% to makeGo for two18.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:36FSU Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick14.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call14.0%−0.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1288% → 88%
Q1 14:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
11.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 5 yds to the CLEM 32Similar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
12.1%
PENALTY CU False Start (Carter,Barrett) 5 yards from CU 32 to CU 27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+2
12.2%
Aidan Swanson punt for 47 yds , Lawayne McCoy returns for 2 yds to the FSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2912% → 13%
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
12.2%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 3 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-5
12.5%
Brock Glenn sacked by Barrett Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 26Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
12.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3FG13 plays · 66 yds · 5:2687% → 85%
Q1 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
13.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 5 yds to the CLEM 32Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
13.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 6 yds to the CLEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
13.9%
Florida State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
13.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 5 yds to the FSU 17Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+5
14.5%
(07:32) PENALTY FSU Offside (Payton,Patrick) 5 yards from FSU17 to FSU12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1615% → 15%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.1%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 6 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
15.4%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for no gain to the FSU 28Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+23
15.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 53 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 23 yds to the CLEM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD2 plays · 58 yds · 0:3784% → 86%
FSUDrive 6INT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4814% → 14%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.6%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 3 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
13.6%
(02:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Glenn,Brock pass incomplete deep left to Douglas,Ja'Khi thrown to CU 50 QB hurried by Barnes,Khalil PENALTY CU Pass Interference (Covil Jr.,Sherrod) 15 yards from FSU27 to FSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
13.9%
Brock Glenn pass intercepted Avieon Terrell return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD6 plays · 50 yds · 0:5886% → 89%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
13.9%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Vizzina,Christopher pass incomplete deep middle to Wesco Jr.,Bryant thrown to FSU00 PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Thomas,Azareye'h) 15 yards from FSU36 to FSU21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+23
10.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 23 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4911% → 15%
Q2 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+35
11.5%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Landen Thomas for 35 yds to the CLEM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
12.2%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 9 yds to the CLEM 19 for a 1ST down Clemson Penalty, Roughing The Passer (10 Yards) to the CLEM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
12.3%
Malik Benson run for 5 yds to the CLEM 14 Malik Benson fumbled, recovered by FSU Malik BensonSimilar
Q2 11:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
15.3%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Amaree Williams for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9MISSED FG8 plays · 54 yds · 3:5185% → 85%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
14.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 20 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-6
14.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the FSU 23Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 16
OPP 23
-7
15.0%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Cam Riley for a loss of 7 yards to the FSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 2:0815% → 15%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
15.2%
(07:12) Shotgun Glenn,Brock pass complete deep right to Benson,Malik caught at CU 48, for 31 yards to the CU 48 (Lukus,Jeadyn) PENALTY FSU Holding (Otto,Andre') 10 yards from FSU21 to FSU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 10
OWN 21
-5
14.9%
PENALTY FSU False Start (Brown,Shyheim) 5 yards from FSU21 to FSU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:58
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
14.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11FG10 plays · 51 yds · 3:0285% → 88%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
15.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 8 yds to the CLEM 36Similar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
14.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 7 yds to the CLEM 47Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
14.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 4 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
14.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Josh Sapp for 24 yds to the FSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2814% → 14%
CLEMDrive 13FG16 plays · 77 yds · 1:0487% → 93%
Q2 0:44
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+16
13.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 16 yds to the CLEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
12.1%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Klubnik,Cade pass incomplete short middle to Stellato,Troy thrown to FSU39 PENALTY FSU Offside declined FSU Pass Interference (Knowles II,Kevin) 15 yards from CU 44 to FSU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
10.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 10 yds to the FSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+7
10.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 7 yds to the FSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT12 plays · 34 yds · 6:0312% → 11%
Q3 13:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+21
11.4%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+3
12.3%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Brian Courtney for 3 yds to the CLEM 43Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+8
12.2%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 8 yds to the CLEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
12.6%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Landen Thomas for 2 yds to the CLEM 33Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+17
12.7%
run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line fumbled, recovered by FSU Brock Glenn , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 16
OPP 41
0
11.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15PUNT11 plays · 41 yds · 3:4091% → 92%
FSUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4410% → 9%
Q3 4:06
4TH & 9
OWN 5
+14
9.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 54 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 14 yds to the FSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17MISSED FG10 plays · 37 yds · 3:3693% → 95%
Q3 3:09
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+16
6.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 16 yds to the FSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+13
5.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 13 yds to the FSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
5.2%
Nolan Hauser 25 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Patrick Payton (00:24) Hauser,Nolan field goal attempt from 25 yards NO GOOD blocked by Payton,Patrick (H: Swinney,Clay, LS: Caspersen,Holden), clock 00:24 recovered by CU Swinney,Clay at FSU26, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNS.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD18 plays · 74 yds · 5:2410% → 16%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+13
9.6%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Landen Thomas for 13 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+6
10.5%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Malik Benson for 6 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+6
10.8%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 6 yds to the CLEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
11.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Glenn,Brock pass incomplete short left to Poitier,Kentron thrown to CU 27 PENALTY FSU Holding (Jones,Keiondre) 10 yards from CU 46 to FSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+11
10.1%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Landen Thomas for 11 yds to the CLEM 45Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+17
8.1%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 17 yds Hykeem Williams fumbled, recovered by FSU Amaree Williams for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
16.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19FG6 plays · 61 yds · 2:4790% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:537% → 6%
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
6.5%
Brock Glenn sacked by T.J. Parker for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21FG12 plays · 48 yds · 3:3697% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22END OF GAME9 plays · 52 yds · 1:451% → 1%
Q4 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
0.9%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Landen Thomas for 9 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+14
1.1%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Malik Benson for 14 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
1.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Malik Benson for 19 yds to the CLEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
1.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Landen Thomas for 1 yd to the CLEM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:36
Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+7.7
FG · Q4 6:38
Nolan Hauser 31 yd FG GOOD
-3.8
TD · Q1 0:02
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 23 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
-3.1