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MIA

Miami 39 at California 38

CAL
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:42 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 67Home team on offense+9.5Pregame prior−16.5Score differential+2.1Garbage-time factor+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:07: Cam Ward pass intercepted Nohl Williams return for 40 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK) — CAL win probability +13.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:02: Damien Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Cam Ward pass to Xavier Restrepo for Two-Point Conversion) — MIA win probability +11.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:28: Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 18 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +12.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:04: Cam Ward run for 24 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +27.0 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:26: Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 5 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +58.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:41MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:20CAL 4th & 20 at CAL 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:57MIA 4th & 2 at CAL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.4%−1.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:07MIA 4th & 12 at CAL 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:00CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:38MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:42CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:33MIA 4th & 25 at MIA 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:21CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:18MIA 4th & 5 at CAL 43, down 18
    Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−2.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:05MIA 4th & 3 at CAL 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:13CAL 4th & 7 at MIA 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:43MIA 4th & 6 at midfield, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:42CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 33, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:35MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:42CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:05CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.5%−4.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 6:19MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:58CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:43CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:00CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:07CAL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:06CAL Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:02MIA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:28MIA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:04MIA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:26MIA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−9.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 4:1477% → 75%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.7%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MIA 31Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
23.0%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
23.3%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
23.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 7 yds to the MIA 47Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-1
23.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 46Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-9
24.4%
Cam Ward sacked by Teddye Buchanan and Nate Burrell for a loss of 9 yards to the MIA 37Similar
Q1 10:41
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
25.0%
Dylan Joyce punt for 36 yds, downed at the CAL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:0825% → 25%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
25.0%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 7 yards to the CAL 20Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 17
OWN 20
0
25.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 17
OWN 20
-3
25.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 17Similar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 20
OWN 17
0
25.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 2:5175% → 77%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
25.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 28 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
25.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 18 yds to the CAL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
25.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 8 yds to the CAL 9Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+6
25.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the CAL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 2:0824% → 29%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
24.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 14Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
24.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+14
24.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 14 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
24.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
24.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Corey Dyches for 15 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
25.4%
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the CAL 43Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+57
28.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 57 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:4872% → 71%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
28.1%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
28.3%
Cam Ward run for 5 yds to the MIA 38Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
27.9%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
28.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 21 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jacolby George) to the MIA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
28.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 7 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
28.1%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+1
28.7%
Jordan Lyle run for 1 yd to the CAL 45Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+1
29.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 1 yd to the CAL 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 1:0332% → 38%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+51
31.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 51 yds to the MIA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
32.8%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the MIA 5Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
38.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:3064% → 64%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
36.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 8 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
35.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 16 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
36.1%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
36.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+9
36.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 9 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
37.3%
Jacolby George run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 41 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Personal Foul (Cade Uluave) to the CAL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
36.6%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 28Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
37.9%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 12
OPP 28
0
39.7%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+46
36.4%
Andres Borregales 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0037% → 47%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.6%
Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
37.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
38.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+66
47.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 66 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:1652% → 43%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.3%
Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
48.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 6 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
49.4%
Damien Martinez run for 11 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
49.3%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-2
49.6%
Cam Ward sacked by Xavier Carlton for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 46Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
55.8%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+29
56.8%
Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 10 Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the CAL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3955% → 57%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.8%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
56.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 1 yd to the CAL 28Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
56.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 3 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
56.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:5341% → 36%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
59.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 14 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
58.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 11 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
57.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 6 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
56.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 5 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
56.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the CAL 37Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-18
58.8%
Cam Ward sacked by Nate Burrell for a loss of 18 yards to the MIA 45Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 25
OWN 45
0
62.9%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 25
OWN 45
0
64.3%
Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CAL 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
62.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3160% → 60%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
60.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
60.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 5 yds to the CAL 25Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-9
60.3%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Simeon Barrow Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the CAL 16Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
59.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 60 yds, downed at the MIA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-40
73.7%
Cam Ward pass intercepted Nohl Williams return for 40 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:4226% → 21%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 26Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+26
75.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 26 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
73.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
74.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for no gain to the CAL 43Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
75.7%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
79.3%
Dylan Joyce punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:0584% → 95%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
84.1%
Jaivian Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 15Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+56
82.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 56 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
86.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 20 yds to the MIA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.3%
Chandler Rogers run for 9 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:596% → 15%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 8 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
94.7%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
94.9%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
95.0%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MIA 43Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+15
95.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 15 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.5%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
95.6%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+7
95.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 7 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+5
96.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 5 yds to the CAL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
96.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 16 yds to the CAL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
96.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 13 yds to the CAL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.3%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Cam Ward pass to Xavier Restrepo for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:3589% → 97%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
89.3%
Jonathan Brady run for 20 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
90.6%
Fernando Mendoza run for 22 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
91.1%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 34Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+12
91.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 12 yds to the MIA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
92.3%
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the MIA 21Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+2
92.4%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the MIA 19Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
93.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
96.7%
Ryan Coe 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:393% → 15%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
97.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 21 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
97.3%
Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIA 36Similar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+15
97.6%
Cam Ward run for 15 yds to the CAL 49Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
97.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
97.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Riley Williams for no gain to the CAL 45Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
97.9%
Miami Penalty, Illegal Motion (Elijah Arroyo) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 6
50
+7
97.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 7 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
97.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elija Lofton for 24 yds to the CAL 19 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
97.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 13 yds to the CAL 6 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (3 Yards) to the CAL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.4%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.5%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Riley WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-15
97.4%
Miami Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Samuel Brown) to the CAL 18Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 0
OPP 18
+18
84.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 18 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 3:4293% → 95%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.7%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 24Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
93.0%
California Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the CAL 19Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+15
93.0%
Mendoza, Fernando pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the CAL12 (Baron, Tyler), PENALTY MIAMI face mask 15 yards to the CAL34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CAL.Similar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
93.8%
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the CAL 37Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
94.7%
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the CAL 37Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-4
94.9%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 33Similar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
94.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MIA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 2:3310% → 36%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
90.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 13 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
91.2%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Isaiah HortonSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
91.3%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Joshisa TraderSimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+5
91.7%
California Penalty, Defensive Offside (Xavier Carlton) to the MIA 48Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
91.4%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 5
OWN 48
-5
91.6%
Miami Penalty, False Start (Matthew McCoy) to the MIA 43Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+13
93.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 13 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
91.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 9 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+2
90.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 2 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
91.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 9 yds to the CAL 24Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+24
64.1%
Cam Ward run for 24 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1488% → 93%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
87.7%
Jaivian Thomas run for 19 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
91.7%
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the CAL 44Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
92.8%
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-5
94.0%
California Penalty, False Start (Corey Dyches) to the CAL 42Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+4
93.5%
Fernando Mendoza run for 4 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
93.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 1:0219% → 88%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+77
81.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 77 yds to the CAL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
67.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 5 yds to the CAL 10Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-15
67.9%
Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Isaiah Horton) to the CAL 25Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 20
OPP 25
0
71.8%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Samuel BrownSimilar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 20
OPP 25
+22
74.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 22 yds to the CAL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
67.2%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 5Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
12.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 5 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24INT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1632% → 19%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
25.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Corey DychesSimilar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
22.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Mason StarlingSimilar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-17
18.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass intercepted Francisco Mauigoa return for 2 yds to the CAL 27 Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the CAL 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
6.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:26
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 5 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
-58.8
TD · Q4 4:04
Cam Ward run for 24 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
-27
TD · Q3 13:07
Cam Ward pass intercepted Nohl Williams return for 40 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)
+13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com