Try the model
FSU

Florida State 16 at SMU 42

SMU
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:56 · Carter Campbell run for 6 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Home team on offense+35.0Pregame prior+0.6Score differential+20.6Garbage-time factor+14.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+18.2Blowout margin+12.7
This game in five plays
  1. SAFETY · Q2 0:22: TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETY — FSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:00: Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 11 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +10.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:42: Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 15 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +10.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:45: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Landen Thomas for 20 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:23: Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +7.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 3:21SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:53FSU 4th & 23 at FSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−1.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:00SMU 4th & 3 at FSU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    64.8%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:08FSU 4th & 20 at FSU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−2.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:12SMU 4th & 6 at FSU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:19FSU 4th & 2 at SMU 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.9%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−7.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:46FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 19, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:56FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 25, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:55FSU 4th & 8 at SMU 27, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:41FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 38, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:48SMU 4th & 11 at FSU 41, up 26
    Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    99.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:18FSU 4th & 18 at FSU 25, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:56SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 42, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:44SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:38FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:20SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:00SMU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:42SMU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:45FSU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:23SMU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:55SMU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1668% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.5%
Brashard Smith run for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
67.5%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
67.5%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
67.5%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+14
67.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 14 yds to the FSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
67.5%
JENNINGS, Kevin pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DIXON, Kelvontay thrown to the FSU15. PENALTY SMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MARYLAND, RJ enforced 5 yards from the FSU47 to the SMU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+6
67.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 6 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
67.5%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the FSU 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-5
67.5%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FSU 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+26
67.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 26 yds to the FSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
67.5%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the FSU 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+2
67.5%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 13Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
69.1%
Brashard Smith run for 13 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0632% → 35%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
68.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 11 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
68.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+50
68.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 50 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
67.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the SMU 9Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
65.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 9 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:1766% → 65%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.3%
Brashard Smith run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
66.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 6 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
66.7%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Joshua Farmer and Blake Nichelson for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 17
OWN 31
-6
66.3%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Grady Kelly for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 23
OWN 25
+11
65.9%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 11 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
65.2%
Isaac Pearson punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 2:2834% → 34%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
65.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 7 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-5
65.3%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FSU 23Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
65.7%
Kam Davis run for 3 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-10
66.0%
run for a loss of 10 yards to the FSU 16 fumbled, recovered by FSU DJ Uiagalelei D. Uiagalelei return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 15
OWN 16
-67
66.0%
MASTROMANNO, Alex punt 67 yards to the SMU17 downed by JOSEPH, Edwin, clock 01:03. PENALTY FSU Holding on MENZER, Malakai enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the FSU16 to the FSU8 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 23
OWN 8
+5
66.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5367% → 66%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
50
0
67.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
50
+2
66.9%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+5
66.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 5 yds to the FSU 43Similar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
66.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6INT
4 plays · 29 yds · 2:0536% → 37%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
64.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jalen Brown for 21 yds to the FSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
63.5%
Kam Davis run for 3 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
63.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 5 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
62.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass intercepted Jonathan McGill return for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 1:3566% → 73%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
65.5%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
65.3%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+8
64.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 8 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
66.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
66.0%
Kevin Jennings run for 15 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
72.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 42 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:0630% → 28%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
70.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FSU 22 Lawrance Toafili fumbled, recovered by FSU return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
70.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
71.3%
Florida State Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Intentional Grounding on UIAGALELEI, DJ enforced a result of a (Yards) to the FSU 12Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 20
OWN 11
-2
72.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 54 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:5672% → 73%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
71.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-6
72.2%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+39
70.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 39 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
73.2%
Florida State Penalty, Face mask (3 yards) (Darrell Jackson Jr.) to the FSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
73.2%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the FSU 14Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
73.2%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 10Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
72.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
73.0%
Collin Rogers 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10DOWNS
14 plays · 78 yds · 4:5328% → 30%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+18
72.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Malik Benson for 18 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
70.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+12
70.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 12 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
69.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 20 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
68.1%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 3 yds to the SMU 21 DJ Uiagalelei fumbled, recovered by FSU DJ Uiagalelei D. Uiagalelei return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
68.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+11
69.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 11 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
68.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
67.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
68.6%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 2 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
69.7%
DJ Uiagalelei run for no gain to the SMU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11SF
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5177% → 61%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
77.3%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
77.2%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 4Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+5
76.5%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 3
OWN 9
-9
61.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:2230% → 29%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
70.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
71.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:4531% → 32%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
69.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-25
68.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass intercepted Ahmad Walker return for 25 yds to the FSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1074% → 84%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
74.0%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Logan Parr) to the FSU 16Similar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+5
74.0%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the FSU 11Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
84.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 11 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0919% → 17%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
81.3%
TOAFILI, Lawrance rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the FSU12 (SMITH, Isaiah;WALKER, Ahmad). PENALTY FSU Holding on THOMAS, Landen enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the FSU9 to the FSU5 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+19
81.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 19 yds to the FSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
80.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-10
80.9%
Florida State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jeremiah Byers) to the FSU 19Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
81.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 15
OWN 19
0
81.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 15
OWN 19
0
82.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 54 yds , Jake Bailey returns for no gain to the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 3:0484% → 95%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
84.0%
Brashard Smith run for 16 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+33
84.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 33 yds to the FSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
85.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 7 yds to the FSU 17 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Conrad Hussey) to the FSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
85.1%
SMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the FSU 21Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+11
84.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 11 yds to the FSU 10Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
84.5%
SMU Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the FSU 15Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
94.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 15 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:578% → 19%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+35
91.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Darion Williamson for 35 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
90.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 9 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
89.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+1
89.8%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 1 yd to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
89.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
89.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
81.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Landen Thomas for 20 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2286% → 97%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.5%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
84.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+15
85.2%
PEARSON, Isaac punt 54 yards to the FSU20, returned by MCCOY, Lawayne. (SMITH, Key'Shawn), clock 03:44. PENALTY FSU Face mask on COOPER, Omarion enforced 15 yards from the SMU26 to the SMU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
87.7%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+13
87.7%
Brashard Smith run for 13 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
88.0%
Brashard Smith run for 17 yds to the FSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
88.0%
Kevin Jennings run for 9 yds to the FSU 16Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+4
88.0%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
88.0%
Kevin Jennings run for 3 yds to the FSU 9Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+7
90.0%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 7 yds to the FSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.1%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:276% → 5%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+44
94.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 29 , returns for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20INT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:017% → 1%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
93.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
93.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
94.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 8
OPP 27
-82
99.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass intercepted Kobe Wilson return for 82 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.6%
SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Kori Roberson Jr.) to the FSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.6%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for no gain to the FSU 43Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
99.6%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
99.6%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 10
OWN 43
-5
99.6%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (Jeremiah Byers) to the FSU 38Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 61 yds · 5:53100% → 100%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
99.7%
Brashard Smith run for 8 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+20
99.6%
Brashard Smith run for 20 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.6%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
99.6%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+19
99.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 19 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Derrick McFall run for no gain to the FSU 40Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Kevin Jennings run for no gain to the FSU 40Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-1
99.6%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Marvin Jones Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 41Similar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 11
OPP 41
+8
99.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 8 yds to the FSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
99.8%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 35Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-10
99.8%
GLENN, Brock pass to the right complete for 14 yards to BROWN, Jalen caught at the FSU30 and advanced to the FSU49 (KILGORE, Alexander). PENALTY FSU Holding on BYERS, Jeremiah enforced 10 yards from the FSU35 to the FSU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 18
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 18
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 19 yds · 4:18100% → 100%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
Keldric Luster run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+11
99.8%
Keldric Luster run for 11 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
99.8%
run for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+17
99.9%
Derrick McFall run for 17 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-1
99.9%
Derrick McFall run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+6
99.9%
Carter Campbell run for 6 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
99.9%
[SG] Kneel down by LUSTER, Keldric at SMU46 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
-2
99.9%
[SG] Kneel down by LUSTER, Keldric at SMU44 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
SAFETY · Q2 0:22
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETY
-15.4
TD · Q3 13:00
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 11 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q3 7:42
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 15 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com