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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSTAN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:32 · Aidan Flintoft punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CLEM 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:49: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 3 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +4.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:39: Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 19 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +3.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:06: Nolan Hauser 33 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +2.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:09: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 43 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +4.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:10: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser PAT BLOCKED) — CLEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7STAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 13:13STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:49CLEM 4th & 3 at STAN 3, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snapGo for it92.0%44% to convertField goalTheir call91.8%−0.193% to makePunt91.2%−0.7average punt
- Q1 1:41CLEM 4th & 18 at CLEM 25, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snapGo for it90.6%−0.712% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.3%average punt
- Q2 14:50STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 39, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it8.7%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q2 7:32STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snapGo for it9.0%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q2 5:52CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 43, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it89.7%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.0%average punt
- Q2 4:20STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 15, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q3 10:06CLEM 4th & 13 at STAN 16, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.4% before the snapGo for it87.8%−1.318% to convertField goalTheir call89.1%81% to makePunt84.6%−4.5average punt
- Q3 5:57STAN 4th & 5 at CLEM 10, down 13Close callWent for it · 8.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.2%−0.137% to convertField goal8.3%88% to makePunt5.0%−3.2average punt
- Q3 5:06CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 14, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snapGo for it92.4%−0.839% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.1%average punt
- Q3 3:45STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 45, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q3 2:01CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 16, up 13Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it94.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.9%−1.2average punt
- Q4 14:17STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 34, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 11:51STAN 4th & 18 at STAN 17, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 8:35STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 35, down 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:23CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 28, up 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 12:19CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:49CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:39STAN Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.2%97% to makeGo for two9.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:09CLEM Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:10CLEM Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:36CLEM Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:31STAN Touchdown, down 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSTANDrive 1FUMBLE6 plays · 9 yds · 1:377% → 7%
CLEMDrive 2TD3 plays · 34 yds · 0:4893% → 93%
STANDrive 3INT10 plays · 68 yds · 4:117% → 8%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
92.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 5 yds to the CLEM 39Similar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+25
92.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Ismael Cisse for 25 yds to the CLEM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.1%
Ashton Daniels pass intercepted, touchback. Avieon Terrell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4FG5 plays · 77 yds · 1:4692% → 92%
STANDrive 5INT7 plays · 55 yds · 2:318% → 9%
CLEMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1491% → 91%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+24
91.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 24 yds to the CLEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-8
91.1%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Jahsiah Galvan for a loss of 8 yards to the CLEM 25Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 18
OWN 25
0
90.9%
Aidan Swanson punt for 47 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for no gain to the STAN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:409% → 9%
Q1 0:16
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-3
91.0%
Ashton Daniels sacked by T.J. Parker for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8INT7 plays · 57 yds · 2:3291% → 91%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+15
90.7%
Klubnik, Cade pass incomplete to Wesco Jr., Bryant, PENALTY STAN pass interference 15 yards to the CLEMSON20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
90.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 4 yds to the CLEM 40Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+22
90.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Olsen Patt-Henry for 22 yds to the STAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
90.9%
Cade Klubnik pass intercepted Collin Wright return for no gain to the STAN 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 4:339% → 9%
CLEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3290% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2510% → 10%
CLEMDrive 12TD9 plays · 54 yds · 2:2790% → 95%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
90.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 5 yds to the STAN 37Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+6
89.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 6 yds to the STAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 3 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:016% → 11%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
93.8%
Micah Ford run for 26 yds to the CLEM 49 for a 1ST down Clemson Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the CLEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+19
89.1%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 19 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15FG14 plays · 58 yds · 4:3990% → 93%
Q3 13:53
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+15
90.2%
Klubnik, Cade pass incomplete to Moore, T.J., PENALTY STAN pass interference 15 yards to the STAN37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
90.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for no gain to the STAN 37Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+14
90.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 14 yds to the STAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16DOWNS9 plays · 65 yds · 3:587% → 8%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
92.2%
Daniels, Ashton pass incomplete to Ayomanor, Elic, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference 15 yards to the CLEMSON49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STAN.Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 3
OPP 8
-2
91.2%
Justin Lamson sacked by Sammy Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the CLEM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4593% → 93%
Q3 5:06
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
92.9%
Aidan Swanson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tiger Bachmeier at the STAN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:028% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4094% → 93%
Q3 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+7
93.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 7 yds to the CLEM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
91.1%
Ashton Daniels pass intercepted Wade Woodaz return for no gain to the STAN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD2 plays · 43 yds · 0:0895% → 99%
STANDrive 22DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:462% → 1%
CLEMDrive 23TD1 play · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 2:070% → 0%
CLEMDrive 25TD5 plays · 35 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
99.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 14 yds to the STAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+15
99.8%
Klubnik, Cade pass incomplete to Moore, T.J., PENALTY STAN pass interference 15 yards to the STAN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q4 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Olsen Patt-Henry for 2 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 26PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 6 yds to the STAN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q4 6:23
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+37
99.9%
Aidan Swanson punt for 37 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 28TD8 plays · 66 yds · 3:460% → 0%
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-9
99.9%
Justin Lamson sacked by Sammy Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the STAN 25Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+15
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 15 yds to the CLEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 11 yds to the CLEM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+22
99.8%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 22 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 29END OF GAME6 plays · 16 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:49
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 3 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q3 1:09
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 43 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
+4
TD · Q2 0:39
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 19 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
-3.7