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TCU

TCU 42 at SMU 66

SMU
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-7SMU 52.5%Josh Hoover pass complete to EricMcAlister for 19 yds for a TD (KyleLemmermann KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 24 · Q2 5:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:00 · Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 19 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginPregame prior
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Home team on offense−0.5Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Blowout margin+0.4Pregame prior−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:51: Josh Hoover run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +8.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:28: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 10 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +8.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:04: Josh Hoover pass intercepted Ahmaad Moses return for 60 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +9.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:18: Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 46 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +12.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:27: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 24 yds for a TD (Kevin Jennings pass to Brashard Smith for Two-Point Conversion) — SMU win probability +12.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:52SMU 4th & 5 at TCU 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:02TCU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:10TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:32TCU 4th & 2 at SMU 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%−1.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−9.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:20SMU 4th & 1 at TCU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    50.7%−2.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:00TCU 4th & 1 at SMU 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%−2.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−7.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:13TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:35SMU 4th & 12 at TCU 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:32SMU 4th & 6 at TCU 36, up 31
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:55TCU 4th & 3 at SMU 6, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:02SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:51TCU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:24TCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:01SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:00TCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:28SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:04SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:18TCU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:27SMU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 8:34SMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:15TCU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:23SMU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:55TCU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 5:0847% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
46.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
46.9%
Kevin Jennings run for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+9
46.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
46.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for no gain to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
46.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 5 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+7
46.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 7 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
46.9%
Kevin Jennings run for 1 yd to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+4
46.9%
Kevin Jennings run for 4 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
46.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for no gain to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+51
48.9%
Collin Rogers 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:5051% → 49%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
48.6%
Cam Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
48.7%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+17
48.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 17 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
48.3%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+8
48.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Cam Cook for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 1
50
0
48.2%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 1
50
+51
51.3%
Brandon Crossley 51 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5248% → 42%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.6%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
51.4%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
51.8%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+69
57.9%
Ethan Craw punt for 41 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 69 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
17 plays · 65 yds · 6:1942% → 46%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
57.6%
Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
57.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 4 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
56.2%
Chase Curtis run for 3 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
57.3%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
57.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 11 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
57.1%
HOOVER, Josh pass to the right incomplete intended for RICHARDSON, JP thrown to the SMU32. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on DAVIS, AJ enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the SMU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
56.2%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
56.1%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+11
56.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 11 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
56.1%
JOHNSON, Dominique rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the SMU11 (NWOKOBIA, Isaiah;WALKER, Ahmad). PENALTY TCU Holding on NICHOLS, Mike enforced 10 yards from the SMU18 to the SMU28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+3
56.7%
Josh Hoover run for 3 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 17
OPP 25
+4
56.8%
Cam Cook run for 4 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+11
62.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 11 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+7
61.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 7 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
62.7%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.9%
Josh Hoover run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1656% → 56%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
55.7%
Kevin Jennings run for no gain to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
55.4%
Brashard Smith run for 6 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-5
55.8%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+1
55.7%
Kevin Jennings run for 1 yd to the SMU 32 Kevin Jennings fumbled, recovered by TCU Kaleb Elarms-Orr K. Elarms-Orr return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:1145% → 51%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
55.1%
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
54.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Drake Dabney for 3 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+7
55.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 7 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
54.8%
Jeremy Payne run for no gain to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
55.1%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+13
56.0%
HOOVER, Josh pass to the right incomplete intended for BECH, Jack thrown to the SMU7. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on CROSSLEY, Brandon enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the SMU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
49.2%
Cam Cook run for 7 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:1952% → 62%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
52.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
52.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 13 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
53.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
53.0%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+5
52.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 5 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
52.6%
Kevin Jennings run for 2 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
54.2%
TCU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (JaTravis Broughton) to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
62.2%
Brashard Smith run for 25 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0139% → 48%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
61.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JoJo Earle for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 22Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+33
61.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 33 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
59.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 17 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
58.0%
HOOVER, Josh pass up the middle complete for 6 yards to EARLE, JoJo caught at the SMU32 and advanced to the SMU22 (WALKER, Ahmad). PENALTY Before the snap, TCU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the SMU28 to the SMU33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
58.9%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+5
59.3%
Cam Cook run for 5 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+9
59.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 9 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+19
52.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 19 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 60 yds · 3:2457% → 70%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
56.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
57.3%
Kevin Jennings run for 3 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+10
56.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
57.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+6
58.3%
Derrick McFall run for 6 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
58.3%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-5
59.8%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+21
57.0%
Brashard Smith run for 21 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
60.2%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
60.9%
Kevin Jennings run for no gain to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
69.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 10 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10INT TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:2431% → 21%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
69.4%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
69.9%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+4
70.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Cam Cook for 4 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-60
79.4%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Ahmaad Moses return for 60 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5121% → 20%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.9%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
79.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 3 yds JP Richardson fumbled, recovered by TCUSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
79.7%
Ethan Craw punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12FG
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0781% → 92%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+29
80.7%
Brashard Smith run for 29 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
83.8%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+49
91.6%
Collin Rogers 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 3:2911% → 24%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
89.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 22 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+19
89.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 19 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
89.0%
Jordyn Bailey run for 6 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
89.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 12 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
89.1%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
88.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Cam Cook for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-5
89.0%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+46
76.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 46 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5179% → 93%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
78.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 51 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
81.1%
SMITH, Brashard rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the TCU20 (HODGES, Johnny). PENALTY Before the snap, SMU Illegal Motion on BRINSON, Romello enforced 5 yards from the TCU24 to the TCU29. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+5
81.1%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
81.0%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+24
93.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 24 yds for a TD (Kevin Jennings pass to Brashard Smith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:458% → 7%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
92.1%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-12
92.7%
Josh Hoover sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the TCU 1 Josh Hoover fumbled, recovered by SMU Jahfari Harvey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.6%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17INT
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:591% → 1%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
98.7%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
98.7%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Mike Nichols) to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 15
OWN 24
0
98.7%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+15
98.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 15 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+40
98.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 40 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
98.4%
Cam Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+37
98.9%
SMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (37 Yards) to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:5299% → 100%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
99.1%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 10 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
99.2%
JENNINGS, Kevin pass deep to the right incomplete thrown to the TCU38. PENALTY TCU Roughing the Passer on DEAL, Devean enforced 15 yards from the SMU44 to the TCU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.2%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+8
99.2%
Kevin Jennings run for 8 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+6
99.2%
Brashard Smith run for 6 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
99.2%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
99.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 12
OPP 28
0
99.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+45
99.5%
Collin Rogers 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Cam Cook for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
99.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 10 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.6%
Cam Cook run for 5 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-5
99.7%
Cam Cook run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 40 Abe Camara fumbled, recovered by SMU Ahmad Walker A. Walker return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 4 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+53
99.7%
Collin Rogers 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:170% → 2%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.7%
Trey Sanders run for 4 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+45
99.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 45 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.7%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
99.7%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
97.9%
Jack Bech 15 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 3:5099% → 100%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
99.0%
Brashard Smith run for 8 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+5
98.9%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
99.0%
Brashard Smith run for 12 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
99.0%
Kevin Jennings run for 17 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
99.0%
Brashard Smith run for 10 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Brashard Smith 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 5:210% → 1%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 6 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 8 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
99.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Eric McAlister for 13 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.8%
Jeremy Payne run for 3 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+14
99.8%
SMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kobe Wilson) to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
99.8%
Trey Sanders run for 6 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-1
99.8%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+2
99.8%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+6
99.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jordyn Bailey for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
Keldric Luster run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
99.8%
Derrick McFall run for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
99.8%
Keldric Luster run for 6 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
99.8%
TCU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Zachary Chapman) to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
99.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by LUSTER, Keldric at TCU47 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:18
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 46 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q3 9:27
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 24 yds for a TD (Kevin Jennings pass to Brashard Smith for Two-Point Conversion)
+12.3
TD · Q2 1:04
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Ahmaad Moses return for 60 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com