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JMU

James Madison 70 at North Carolina 50

UNC
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.1UNC 5.5%Davion Gause 34 Yd Return of BlockedPunt (Two-Point Pass ConversionFailed)AWAY 60 - HOME 38 · Q3 3:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:08 · Davion Gause 34 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Home team on offense−40.4Pregame prior+10.9Score differential−22.1Garbage-time factor−7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:33: Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +5.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 10:20: Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 6 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — JMU win probability +9.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:45: Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 13 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — JMU win probability +16.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:14: Alonza Barnett III run for 27 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — JMU win probability +27.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:00: Omarion Hampton 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — UNC win probability +7.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5JMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:36JMU 4th & 4 at UNC 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:27JMU 4th & 7 at JMU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:36UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:06JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:14UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:29UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−1.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:25JMU 4th & 17 at UNC 45, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:35UNC 4th & 17 at JMU 25, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:08JMU 4th & 7 at JMU 40, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:00JMU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.1%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:28JMU 4th & 9 at UNC 25, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−2.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:03JMU 4th & 5 at JMU 30, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:00UNC 4th & 3 at JMU 14, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7JMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:36JMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:12UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:08UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:36JMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:23JMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 14:33UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 10:20JMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 8:45JMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 7:14JMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q2 0:56JMU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 9:16JMU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 7:11UNC Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q3 3:08UNC Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 11:00UNC Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.5%
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 4:26JMU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  16. Q4 1:18UNC Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JMUDrive 1FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:2417% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
82.9%
Alonza Barnett III run for 38 yds to the UNC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
82.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 6 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
82.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
82.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+50
82.4%
Noe Ruelas 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:1282% → 82%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
82.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Christian Hamilton for 42 yds to the JMU 33 for a 1ST down James Madison Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Eric O'Neill) to the JMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
82.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the JMU 17Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+9
82.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Christian Hamilton for 9 yds Christian Hamilton fumbled, recovered by JMU Jacob DobbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5718% → 18%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
82.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+3
82.2%
George Pettaway run for 3 yds to the JMU 11Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
82.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
81.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5182% → 80%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
81.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 42Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
81.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
81.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+14
80.3%
Jayden Mines 14 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Noe Ruelas Pass to Jack Mowrey for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:1980% → 81%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
80.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 26Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
80.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 8 yds to the UNC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
80.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+29
80.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 29 yds to the JMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
80.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
81.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 35 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0120% → 21%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
80.1%
George Pettaway run for 11 yds to the JMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
79.9%
George Pettaway run for 6 yds to the JMU 49Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-6
79.9%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Beau Atkinson for a loss of 6 yards to the JMU 43Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
80.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
79.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:5879% → 82%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
79.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Javarius Green for 12 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
79.3%
North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNC 38Similar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 4
OWN 38
+30
79.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 30 yds to the JMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
80.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the JMU 28Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+28
81.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 28 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3219% → 22%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.7%
Alonza Barnett III run for 6 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+69
77.9%
Omarion Dollison 69 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:1122% → 28%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
77.6%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the JMU 41Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
77.6%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+55
77.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 50 yds to the UNC 9 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Jaybron Harvey) to the UNC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
77.3%
Tyler Purdy run for 1 yd to the UNC 3Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.5%
Alonza Barnett III run for 3 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5073% → 78%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 7 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
73.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+20
73.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 20 yds to the JMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
72.9%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Culliver,Chris) 5 yards from JMU45 to JMU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
50
+16
72.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 1 yd to the JMU 49 for a 1ST down James Madison Penalty, Personal Foul (Mychal McMullin) to the JMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
78.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1324% → 35%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.2%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the JMU 27Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
76.1%
PENALTY UNC UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Harris,Joshua) 15 yards from JMU27 to JMU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
75.4%
Alonza Barnett III run for no gain to the JMU 42Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
75.6%
George Pettaway run for 5 yds to the JMU 47Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+8
75.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 8 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
75.1%
George Pettaway run for 14 yds to the UNC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
75.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Tyler Purdy for 19 yds to the UNC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
74.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to George Pettaway for 6 yds to the UNC 6Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
65.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 6 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0667% → 65%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
66.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
64.5%
Tom Maginness punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the JMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:2935% → 51%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+56
65.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 42 yds to the UNC 27 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Amare Campbell) to the UNC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
49.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 13 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2155% → 54%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
54.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
54.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby pass incomplete short left thrown to UNC40 PENALTY JMU Roughing The Passer (Bush,Immanuel) 15 yards from UNC23 to UNC38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
56.3%
Chris Culliver run for 8 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+3
53.7%
Conner Harrell run for 3 yds to the UNC 27 Conner Harrell fumbled, recovered by JMU Khairi MannsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 15TD
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
26.2%
Alonza Barnett III run for 27 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16INT
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:0031% → 30%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.9%
Jacolby Criswell run for 9 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+18
31.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 18 yds to the JMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
30.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:4875% → 77%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
25.4%
PENALTY JMU False Start (Sweazie,Carter) 5 yards from JMU35 to JMU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+7
25.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 7 yds to the JMU 37Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+29
23.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 29 yds Cam Ross fumbled, recovered by UNC Power EcholsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5727% → 25%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
26.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 35Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
26.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
26.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
24.6%
Tom Maginness punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Yamir Knight at the JMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 19PUNT
14 plays · 26 yds · 3:0478% → 84%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
21.8%
George Pettaway run for 3 yds to the JMU 32Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
21.2%
George Pettaway run for 6 yds to the JMU 38Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+13
21.9%
George Pettaway run for 13 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
22.8%
Alonza Barnett III run for 1 yd to the UNC 48Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+10
22.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 10 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
16.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Tyler Purdy for 6 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 32
-10
15.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Purdy,Tyler rush right for 2 yards gain to the UNC30 (Lane,Antavious) PENALTY JMU Holding (Robell,Riley) 10 yards from UNC32 to UNC42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+7
16.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 17 yds to the UNC 25 James Madison Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brionne Penny) to the UNC 35Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
15.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-5
16.1%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Kevin Hester Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 40Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 12
OPP 40
-5
16.4%
PENALTY JMU False Start (Dobbs,Jacob) 5 yards from UNC40 to UNC45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
16.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20INT TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:2914% → 9%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
14.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 17 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
14.2%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Eric O'Neill for a loss of 8 yards to the UNC 17Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-33
8.6%
Terrence Spence 33 Yd Interception Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21END OF HALF
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:569% → 7%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
8.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
7.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:2513% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
12.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Alex Taylor for 15 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
12.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+29
12.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 29 yds to the JMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
14.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the JMU 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+7
14.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 7 yds to the JMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
14.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-10
13.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby pass incomplete short left thrown to JMU16 QB hurried by McMullin,Mychal PENALTY UNC Holding (Sampson,Howard) 10 yards from JMU18 to JMU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 28
+3
13.8%
Jacolby Criswell run for 3 yds to the JMU 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 25
0
13.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 17
OPP 25
+42
9.9%
Noah Burnette 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1991% → 96%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
9.5%
Cam Ross run for 10 yds to the JMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
9.6%
George Pettaway run for 1 yd to the JMU 36Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
9.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+48
9.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 48 yds to the UNC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
8.8%
PENALTY JMU False Start (McMurtrie,Pat) 5 yards from UNC16 to UNC21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+14
9.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 7 yds to the UNC 14 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (7 Yards) to the UNC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
4.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Dylan Williams for 7 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:015% → 7%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
4.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+13
4.7%
Jacolby Criswell run for 13 yds to the UNC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
4.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+22
4.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 22 yds to the JMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
5.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 20 yds to the JMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
4.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby pass incomplete short left thrown to JMU03 QB hurried by DeNgohe,Darold PENALTY JMU Roughing The Passer offsetting UNC Intentional Grounding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
6.7%
Omarion Hampton 15 Yd Run (Jacolby Criswell Pass to Bryson Nesbit for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 25PUNT TD
9 plays · 15 yds · 4:0396% → 95%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.0%
Tyler Purdy run for 4 yds to the JMU 29Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
4.1%
George Pettaway run for 4 yds to the JMU 33Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
4.1%
Tyler Purdy run for 4 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
4.0%
Alonza Barnett III run for 4 yds to the JMU 33Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+6
4.1%
Alonza Barnett III run for 6 yds to the JMU 39Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+6
3.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 6 yds to the JMU 45Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 2
OWN 45
-5
4.4%
PENALTY JMU False Start (Simmons,Joseph) 5 yards from JMU45 to JMU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+34
5.5%
Davion Gause 34 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 26FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:4095% → 99%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.4%
George Pettaway run for 3 yds to the JMU 28Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
5.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 13 yds to the JMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
5.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
5.2%
George Pettaway run for 4 yds to the JMU 45Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-5
5.1%
PENALTY JMU False Start (Sweazie,Carter) 5 yards from JMU45 to JMU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+10
5.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Yamir Knight for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
50
+24
4.0%
Alonza Barnett III run for 24 yds to the UNC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
3.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+3
3.5%
Wayne Knight run for 3 yds to the UNC 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
3.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+44
1.3%
Noe Ruelas 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:191% → 9%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
0.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 19 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+19
0.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 19 yds to the JMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
1.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 26 yds to the JMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
1.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 5 yds to the JMU 9Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
1.2%
Jacolby Criswell run for 7 yds to the JMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.7%
Omarion Hampton 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5796% → 97%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.0%
George Pettaway run for 5 yds to the JMU 30Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
4.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
3.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 29FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:447% → 6%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
6.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 12 yds to the UNC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
6.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
6.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-9
6.3%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Eric O'Neill for a loss of 9 yards to the UNC 33 Jacolby Criswell fumbled, recovered by JMU Gannon Weathersby , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 30TD
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:5397% → 100%
Q4 9:19
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+6
3.0%
Alonza Barnett III run for 6 yds to the UNC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
3.0%
Tyler Purdy run for 8 yds to the UNC 14Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+3
3.0%
Tyler Purdy run for 3 yds to the UNC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
3.0%
Shotgun Pettaway,George rush left for 10 yards gain to the UNC01 (Lane,Antavious) PENALTY JMU Illegal Formation 5 yards from UNC11 to UNC16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+3
3.0%
Alonza Barnett III run for 3 yds to the UNC 13Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+2
3.0%
Tyler Purdy run for 2 yds to the UNC 11Similar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
3.0%
George Pettaway run for 5 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 11 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 31TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 3:010% → 1%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+48
0.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 48 yds to the JMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
0.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 8 yds to the JMU 24Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 2
OPP 24
-5
0.3%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Gause,Davion) 5 yards from JMU24 to JMU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
0.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+8
0.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 8 yds to the JMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
0.3%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Trent Hendrick for a loss of 4 yards to the JMU 25Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+3
0.3%
Davion Gause run for 3 yds to the JMU 28Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+11
0.2%
Davion Gause run for 11 yds to the JMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+6
0.2%
Jacolby Criswell run for 6 yds to the JMU 9Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 17
OPP 28
+14
0.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 14 yds to the JMU 14Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
0.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Davion Gause for 4 yds to the JMU 5Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
0.4%
Jobi Malary run for 3 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-1
0.3%
D. Morris takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:14
Alonza Barnett III run for 27 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
-27.5
TD · Q2 8:45
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 13 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
-16
TD · Q2 10:20
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Cam Ross for 6 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com