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MIA

Miami 50 at South Florida 15

USF
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:57 · Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior−26.4Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:47: Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 6 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +1.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:36: John Cannon 45 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +7.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:56: Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 76 yds for a TD (Cam Ward pass to Damien Martinez for Two-Point Conversion) — MIA win probability +13.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:25: Damien Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +7.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:55: Damien Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +4.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:28USF 4th & 10 at MIA 40, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.3%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    17.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:14USF 4th & 3 at MIA 33, down 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%−0.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:09MIA 4th & 13 at USF 49, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:57USF 4th & 1 at MIA 43, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%−2.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:36USF 4th & 27 at MIA 27, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:18USF 4th & 6 at MIA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:16USF 4th & 14 at USF 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−2.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:48USF 4th & 15 at MIA 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:48USF 4th & 16 at MIA 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:30MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:52USF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:47MIA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:56MIA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:25MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:55MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:44MIA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:09MIA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2987% → 86%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.4%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
13.4%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 22Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+16
13.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 16 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
13.9%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
14.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 4 yds to the MIA 42Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+14
14.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 14 yds to the USF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
14.4%
(12:29) MARTINEZ, Damien rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the USF39 (HARRIS, Mac;HAWTHORNE, Decarius), clock 12:28. PENALTY USF Offsides on HAWTHORNE, Decarius enforced 5 yards from the USF44 to the USF39 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 5
OPP 39
+10
14.5%
(12:08) WARD, Cameron scrambles to the right for a gain of 18 yards to the USF21 (HARRIS, Mac), 1ST DOWN, clock 12:01. PENALTY USF Holding on WATSON III, Rico enforced 10 yards USF Unnecessary Roughness on WARD, Tavin enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the end of the play at the USF11 to the USF5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
14.7%
(11:36) WARD, Cameron pass short to the left incomplete intended for GEORGE, Jacolby thrown to the USF0, clock 11:33. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on BROWN-BUNKLEY, Aamaris enforced 3 yards to the USF2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
14.2%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:0214% → 16%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.4%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the USF 25Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
14.5%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the USF 30 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Francisco Mauigoa) to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
14.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 3 yds to the USF 48Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+12
14.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 12 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
15.1%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
15.1%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 42Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+2
15.1%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 40Similar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+58
15.9%
Nico Gramatica 58 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:5184% → 84%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
15.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 24Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
16.2%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-15
16.4%
Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MIA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:1417% → 19%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
17.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 18 yds to the MIA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
17.2%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
18.5%
Sean Atkins pass complete to Byrum Brown for 12 yds for a TD (John Cannon PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 4:4282% → 83%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
18.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 7Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+8
18.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 8 yds to the MIA 15Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+9
19.0%
Cam Ward run for 9 yds to the MIA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+36
19.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 36 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
18.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 22 yds to the USF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
19.0%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the USF 16Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+10
19.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 10 yds to the USF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
17.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 6 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:3118% → 21%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.3%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the USF 26Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
18.4%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+28
18.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 28 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
19.9%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
19.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 4 yds to the MIA 36Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+3
20.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Ta'Ron Keith for 3 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+51
21.4%
Nico Gramatica 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:5780% → 78%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
20.5%
(14:06) WARD, Cameron pass deep to the left complete for 27 yards to RESTREPO, Xavier caught at the MIA45 and advanced to the USF47 (HARRIS, Mac;WARD, Tavin), clock 13:58. PENALTY Before the snap, MIA Illegal Formation on RESTREPO, Xavier enforced 5 yards from the MIA26 to the MIA21. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+14
20.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 14 yds to the MIA 35Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+1
20.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
21.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 18 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
20.2%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
20.3%
(11:49) WARD, Cameron pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GEORGE, Jacolby thrown to the USF30, clock 11:38. PENALTY MIA Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CARPENTER, Zach enforced 5 yards from the USF46 to the MIA49 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
21.3%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+2
21.6%
Cam Ward run for 2 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
22.4%
Dylan Joyce punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8FG
23 plays · 66 yds · 8:2922% → 31%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
22.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the USF 15Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+2
22.6%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
23.0%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
22.9%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 19Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+5
22.7%
BROWN, Byrum pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HARDEMAN, Joshua thrown to the USF40, clock 09:44. PENALTY Before the snap, MIA Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the USF19 to the USF24. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+10
23.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 10 yds to the USF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
23.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USF 36Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+3
24.5%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+9
24.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 9 yds to the USF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
26.0%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 8
50
+6
26.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 6 yds to the MIA 44Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
26.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the MIA 43Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+6
26.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
27.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the MIA 35Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+15
28.6%
(05:21) BROWN, Byrum pass deep to the right incomplete intended for PORTER, Joshua thrown to the MIA5, clock 05:18. PENALTY MIA Personal Foul on BARON, Tyler enforced 15 yards from the MIA35 to the MIA20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
28.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 22Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+14
28.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Joshua Hardeman for 14 yds to the MIA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
29.2%
Byrum Brown sacked by Jaden Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the MIA 14Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
27.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the MIA 14Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-8
25.0%
Byrum Brown sacked by Simeon Barrow Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the MIA 22Similar
Q2 2:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
-5
23.6%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MIA 27Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 27
+45
31.2%
John Cannon 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:3569% → 82%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
31.4%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the MIA 24Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+76
17.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 76 yds for a TD (Cam Ward pass to Damien Martinez for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10MISSED FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 1:3720% → 26%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
19.6%
(01:55) BROWN, Byrum pass short to the left complete for 12 yards to ATKINS, Sean caught at the USF30 and advanced to the USF37 (PORTER JR., Daryl), clock 01:51. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on ATKINS, Sean enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards to the USF13 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+11
19.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 11 yds to the USF 24Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
19.5%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
19.1%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USF 19Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+64
21.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Ta'Ron Keith for 64 yds to the MIA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
25.7%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+8
26.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the MIA 9Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-4
26.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIA 13Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
26.1%
John Cannon 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
22.4%
Kneel down by WARD, Cameron at MIA19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4420% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
20.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 23 yds to the USF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
22.2%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the USF 43Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+1
20.8%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
20.7%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 44
0
20.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Kelley Joiner for no gain to the USF 44Similar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
19.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 5:5180% → 91%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
19.6%
Cam Ward run for 8 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
18.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
18.9%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+17
19.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 17 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
17.4%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
17.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 11 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
17.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Ajay Allen for 16 yds to the USF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
16.7%
Ajay Allen run for 4 yds to the USF 20Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+4
16.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Riley Williams for 4 yds to the USF 16Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+2
17.1%
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds to the USF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
16.6%
WARD, Cameron pass to the left incomplete intended for HORTON, Isaiah thrown to the USF0. PENALTY USF Holding on RUCKER, De'Shawn enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the USF14 to the USF7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
16.3%
Cam Ward run for 6 yds to the USF 1Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.1%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 3:377% → 6%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.2%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
7.1%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
7.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 12 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
7.3%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
7.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 44Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+14
7.2%
BROWN, Byrum pass to the left incomplete intended for ATKINS, Sean thrown to the MIA42. PENALTY MIA Pass Interference on PORTER JR., Daryl enforced at the spot of the foul for 14 yards to the MIA42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
7.9%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
7.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 1 yd to the MIA 41Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+4
7.3%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the MIA 37Similar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 5
OPP 37
-10
7.2%
BROWN, Byrum scrambles up the middle for a gain of 13 yards to the MIA24 (BISSAINTHE, Wesley). PENALTY USF Holding on LOFTON, Mike enforced 10 yards from the MIA37 to the MIA47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
6.4%
Andrew Stokes punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5392% → 99%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
7.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 16 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
7.6%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the MIA 38Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
7.5%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+15
7.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 15 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
7.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 28 yds to the USF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
5.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 18 yds to the USF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.3%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16INT
13 plays · 61 yds · 2:272% → 1%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+26
1.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Payten Singletary for 26 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
1.6%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the MIA 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+12
1.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 12 yds to the MIA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.6%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
1.5%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
1.5%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+14
1.4%
ARCHIE, Bryce pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ATKINS, Sean thrown to the MIA0, clock 14:15. PENALTY MIA Pass Interference on RICHARD, Jadais enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the MIA14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
1.5%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Payten Singletary for 1 yd to the MIA 13Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-5
1.5%
Bryce Archie sacked by Akheem Mesidor and TEAM for a loss of 5 yards to the MIA 18Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+5
1.3%
ARCHIE, Bryce pass deep to the left incomplete intended for YASEEN, Abdur-Rahmaan thrown to the MIA0. PENALTY MIA Offsides on BARROW, Simeon enforced 5 yards from the MIA18 to the MIA13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
1.2%
Bryce Archie pass intercepted, touchback. Mishael Powell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:3699% → 100%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
1.2%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the MIA 22Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
1.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 15 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
1.1%
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the MIA 44Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+10
1.1%
Damien Martinez run for 10 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
1.0%
Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+17
1.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elija Lofton for 17 yds to the USF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+19
1.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 19 yds to the USF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
1.1%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the USF 5Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
1.0%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 5 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:560% → 0%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 8 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Hardeman for 10 yds to the USF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+17
0.1%
Kelley Joiner run for 17 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
0.1%
Bryce Archie sacked by Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 8 yards to the MIA 48Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+2
0.1%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the MIA 46Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 16
OPP 46
0
0.1%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for no gain to the MIA 46Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
0.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 42 yds, downed at the MIA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
3 plays · 96 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
0.2%
Ajay Allen run for 3 yds to the MIA 7Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+2
0.2%
Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the MIA 9Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+91
0.2%
Jordan Lyle run for 91 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20INT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 13 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
0.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 39Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
0.0%
Bryce Archie run for 5 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
0.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 5 yds to the USF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
0.0%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
0.0%
Bryce Archie pass intercepted Myles Mooyoung return for no gain to the MIA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
0.1%
Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the MIA 39Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
0.1%
Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the MIA 41Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
0.1%
Jordan Lyle run for 5 yds to the MIA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:56
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 76 yds for a TD (Cam Ward pass to Damien Martinez for Two-Point Conversion)
-13.6
FG · Q2 2:36
John Cannon 45 yd FG GOOD
+7.6
TD · Q3 7:25
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com