2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · (00:26) Kneel down by LOU at LOU27 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:11: Ramon Puryear 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brock Travelstead Kick) — LOU win probability +4.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
- TD · Q2 11:20: Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 37 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +5.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:04: Jamal Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +7.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:46: Aidan Birr 26 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +9.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:43: Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 57 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +18.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 13:36GT 4th & 7 at GT 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it26.9%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.0%average punt
- Q1 10:16LOU 4th & 13 at GT 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snapGo for it72.3%−0.121% to convertField goalTheir call72.3%45% to makePunt72.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:26LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snapGo for it66.5%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.8%average punt
- Q2 14:54GT 4th & 9 at LOU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snapGo for it30.6%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call30.9%58% to makePunt29.0%−1.8average punt
- Q2 9:13GT 4th & 2 at GT 33, down 7Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snapGo for it25.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 4:24LOU 4th & 1 at GT 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.0%71% to convertField goal75.5%−1.456% to makePunt74.5%−2.5average punt
- Q2 1:56LOU 4th & 7 at GT 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snapGo for it75.7%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call75.9%88% to makePunt71.3%−4.6average punt
- Q2 0:04GT 4th & 1 at LOU 1, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.3%59% to convertField goal21.2%−3.094% to makePunt14.9%−9.4average punt
- Q3 10:12LOU 4th & 22 at LOU 36, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snapGo for it65.1%−4.08% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.2%average punt
- Q3 5:37GT 4th & 1 at LOU 16, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.1%71% to convertField goal30.1%−3.081% to makePunt20.6%−12.5average punt
- Q3 2:46GT 4th & 5 at LOU 8, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snapGo for it31.9%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call32.0%90% to makePunt21.1%−10.9average punt
- Q4 11:33GT 4th & 3 at LOU 3, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.5%44% to convertField goal19.7%−1.893% to makePunt6.7%−14.9average punt
- Q4 6:30GT 4th & 3 at GT 32, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt19.3%−2.4average punt
- Q4 3:57GT 4th & 1 at LOU 21, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.2%71% to convertField goal22.5%−4.774% to makePunt11.6%−15.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 7:40GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.8%97% to makeGo for two29.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:11LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.7%97% to makeGo for two69.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:20LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.8%97% to makeGo for two73.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:04GT Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.9%97% to makeGo for two29.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:43LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.9%97% to makeGo for two75.7%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2034% → 34%
Q1 13:36
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
65.9%
David Shanahan punt for 58 yds , Quincy Riley returns for no gain to the LOU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2MISSED FG8 plays · 58 yds · 3:0766% → 65%
Q1 12:07
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+10
65.6%
(12:07) SHOUGH, Tyler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BROOKS, Ja'Corey broken up by SEYMORE, Taye at the LOU32, clock 12:02. PENALTY GT Holding on EFFORD, Kyle enforced 10 yards from the LOU16 to the LOU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+42
65.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 42 yds to the GT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:3135% → 38%
LOUDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 4:1163% → 60%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
62.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 9 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-10
61.8%
(05:37) QB Keeper SHOUGH, Tyler rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the LOU47 (BUTLER, Tah'j), out of bounds, clock 05:28. PENALTY LOU Holding on MENDOZA, Jonathan enforced 10 yards from the LOU38 to the LOU28 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 19
OWN 28
-5
61.2%
(05:11) SHOUGH, Tyler pass short up the middle complete for 32 yards to JOHNSON, Jamari caught at the LOU29 and advanced to the GT40 (EFFORD, Kyle), out of bounds, clock 05:05. PENALTY LOU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on COLLINS, Austin enforced 5 yards from the LOU28 to the LOU23 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+1
60.0%
Brady Hodges punt for 56 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for 1 yd to the GT 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD3 plays · -6 yds · 1:0740% → 35%
GTDrive 6MISSED FG6 plays · 46 yds · 2:1536% → 37%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
63.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 45 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
62.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 6 yds to the LOU 24Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-5
62.2%
(00:12) KING, Haynes pass to the left complete for 23 yards to BEETHAM, Josh caught at the LOU11 and advanced to the LOU1 (NEAL, Devin), clock 00:05. PENALTY GT Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HAWES, Jackson enforced 5 yards from the LOU24 to the LOU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD7 plays · 71 yds · 3:2865% → 72%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
64.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 10 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
65.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 8 yds to the LOU 47Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
65.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 12 yds to the GT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
71.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 37 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1430% → 29%
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 9 yds to the GT 34Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
70.6%
David Shanahan punt for 55 yds , Quincy Riley returns for 3 yds to the LOU 15Similar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-21
70.8%
(09:03) SHOUGH, Tyler pass to the left complete for 21 yards to BELL, Chris caught at the LOU14 and advanced to the LOU36 (BIGGERS, Zeek), clock 08:57. PENALTY LOU Holding on RUFFIN, Blake enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the LOU15 to the LOU8 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FG12 plays · 75 yds · 6:3571% → 77%
Q2 7:07
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+45
71.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 45 yds to the GT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+11
73.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 11 yds to the GT 30Similar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+17
74.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Donald Chaney for 17 yds to the GT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10TD13 plays · 75 yds · 1:4923% → 33%
Q2 1:42
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
77.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 4 yds to the GT 27Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
77.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 11 yds to the GT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
76.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
50
-5
75.2%
(00:47) KING, Haynes pass short up the middle complete for 6 yards to SINGLETON, JR., Eric caught at the LOU48 and advanced to the LOU44 (HOLLOWAY, Tayon), clock 00:42. PENALTY Before the snap, GT Illegal Motion on BOYD, Avery enforced 5 yards from the GT50 to the GT45. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+51
78.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 51 yds to the LOU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT11 plays · 11 yds · 4:4666% → 65%
Q3 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
67.3%
(14:25) SHOUGH, Tyler pass short to the right incomplete intended for BROOKS, Ja'Corey thrown to the LOU31, clock 14:22. PENALTY LOU Holding on MENDOZA, Jonathan enforced 10 yards from the LOU28 to the LOU18 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+16
66.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 16 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
69.2%
(11:41) SHOUGH, Tyler pass to the left complete for 29 yards to THOMPSON, Jadon caught at the LOU40 and advanced to the GT23 (GIBBS, Syeed), out of bounds, clock 11:31. PENALTY LOU Personal Foul on HICKS, Cataurus enforced 15 yards from the LOU48 to the LOU33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 25
OWN 33
+3
66.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 3 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 22
OWN 36
0
64.9%
Brady Hodges punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rodney Shelley at the GT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12FG14 plays · 67 yds · 7:1934% → 45%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 12 yds to the GT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
64.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 9 yds to the GT 46Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+28
63.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Avery Boyd for 28 yds to the LOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0160% → 82%
Q3 2:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
60.5%
(02:02) SHOUGH, Tyler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for THOMPSON, Jadon thrown to the GT43, clock 01:57. PENALTY GT Pass Interference on GIBBS, Syeed enforced 15 yards to the LOU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+57
82.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 57 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14DOWNS10 plays · 66 yds · 5:0123% → 19%
Q3 0:28
2ND & 10
50
+17
75.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 17 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15SF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16MISSED FG9 plays · 33 yds · 3:5625% → 23%
Q4 10:37
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+19
75.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 19 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
71.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 8 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+9
71.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Trelain Maddox for 9 yds to the LOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17DOWNS13 plays · 54 yds · 3:0517% → 19%
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 7 yds to the GT 32Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
83.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 5 yds to the GT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+33
84.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 33 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18END OF GAME8 plays · 6 yds · 3:2489% → 96%
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
90.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 2 yds to the LOU 23Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+5
92.9%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Running Into the kicker on SHELLEY, Rodney enforced (Rodney Shelley) to the LOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
94.2%
(01:54) Kneel down by LOU at LOU30 (team loss of 3), clock 01:44.Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 13
OWN 30
-2
94.8%
(01:09) Kneel down by LOU at LOU28 (team loss of 2), clock 01:06.Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 15
OWN 28
-1
95.7%
(00:26) Kneel down by LOU at LOU27 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:43
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 57 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+18.5
FG · Q3 2:46
Aidan Birr 26 yd FG GOOD
-9.9
TD · Q2 0:04
Jamal Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
-7.4