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DUKE

Duke 45 at Middle Tennessee 17

MTSU
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:12 · Zeke Rankin 53 Yard Field Goal Missed
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Home team on offense−55.8Pregame prior−4.2Score differential−43.4Garbage-time factor−22.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−10.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 6:14: Zeke Rankin 26 yd FG GOOD — MTSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:36: Star Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +2.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:19: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 7 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +4.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:14: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 34 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:48: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 15 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 6:14MTSU 4th & 9 at DUKE 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:13DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:58MTSU 4th & 20 at MTSU 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:41MTSU 4th & 1 at DUKE 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−1.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:33DUKE 4th & 8 at MTSU 42, up 18
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:43MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:10MTSU 4th & 12 at DUKE 39, down 25
    Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:18DUKE 4th & 5 at MTSU 5, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:58MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:30DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 6, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:38DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 48, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:21MTSU 4th & 1 at DUKE 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:12MTSU 4th & 16 at DUKE 36, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:56DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 49, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:11MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:40MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:59DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 11:19DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:36DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:19DUKE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:14DUKE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:48MTSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:54DUKE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1816% → 17%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 6 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
16.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 3 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
16.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 66 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3183% → 83%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 4 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
16.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 71 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
16.7%
Terry Wilkins run for 6 yds to the MTSU 20 Terry Wilkins fumbled, recovered by DUKE Kendy Charles K. Charles return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2483% → 84%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
16.6%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the MTSU 20Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+10
16.8%
(12:17) MURPHY, Maalik pass to the left incomplete intended for PANCOL, Eli thrown to the MTSU10, clock 12:15. PENALTY MTSU Pass Interference on SHELLMAN, James enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the MTSU10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
16.8%
Peyton Jones run for 7 yds to the MTSU 3Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
17.0%
Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the MTSU 1Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.5%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:5717% → 19%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
16.8%
Terry Wilkins run for 7 yds to the MTSU 42Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
17.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+15
17.0%
Duke Penalty, Targeting on STINSON, Jaylen enforced (Jaylen Stinson) to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
17.3%
Terry Wilkins run for 1 yd to the DUKE 37Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
17.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+22
17.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 22 yds to the DUKE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
17.8%
Terry Wilkins run for 1 yd to the DUKE 14Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
18.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+7
18.0%
(07:55) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the left incomplete intended for STEWART, Kellen thrown to the DUKE0, clock 07:49. PENALTY DUKE Holding on PICKETT, Joshua enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the DUKE14 to the DUKE7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
18.3%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Illegal Snap on WILSON, Simon enforced (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 12Similar
Q1 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
0
18.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
18.3%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the DUKE 10Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
18.4%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the DUKE 9Similar
Q1 6:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
19.3%
Zeke Rankin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4881% → 80%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
19.1%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
19.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
19.4%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 5
OWN 35
-21
19.7%
(05:28) REYNOLDSON, Kade punt 58 yards to the MTSU7, KELLY, Omari returned 21 yards to the MTSU28 (REESE, Michael), clock 05:18. PENALTY MTSU Illegal Block in the Back on JACKSON, Jalen DUKE Face mask on REESE, Michael , Offsetting penalties [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
19.8%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 57 yds , Omari Kelly returns for no gain to the MTSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:1419% → 20%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
19.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 12Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+3
19.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 3 yds to the MTSU 15Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 3
OWN 15
-14
19.7%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the MTSU 1 Nicholas Vattiato fumbled, recovered by DUKE Alex Howard , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.3%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3718% → 18%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
17.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Brian Brewton for 2 yds to the MTSU 18Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+6
17.6%
Terry Wilkins run for 6 yds to the MTSU 24 Terry Wilkins fumbled, recovered by DUKE DaShawn Stone D. Stone return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:2683% → 88%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
17.3%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the MTSU 19Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+11
17.4%
Star Thomas run for 11 yds to the MTSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
17.4%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the MTSU 7Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
17.4%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
12.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 7 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 3:2114% → 14%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
13.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 8 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
13.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
13.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the MTSU 34Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
13.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
13.8%
Jaiden Credle run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 31Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 15
OWN 31
-6
13.6%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Cameron Bergeron for a loss of 6 yards to the MTSU 25Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+1
13.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the MTSU 26Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+5
13.5%
Grant Chadwick punt for 60 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 5 yds to the DUKE 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:2388% → 88%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
12.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 8 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 2
OWN 27
0
12.1%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted John Howse IV return for no gain to the DUKE 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:3014% → 14%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
14.3%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Alex Howard and Michael Reese for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 43Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+3
14.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 3 yds to the DUKE 40Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+8
14.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 8 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
14.6%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
14.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 3 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+4
14.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hayes Sutton for 4 yds to the DUKE 23Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
14.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:0689% → 89%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
11.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 12 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
11.7%
Star Thomas run for 21 yds to the MTSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
11.2%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 46Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+4
11.1%
Peyton Jones run for 4 yds to the MTSU 42Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
11.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
11.1%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:4013% → 12%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
12.9%
Cam'ron Lacy run for 1 yd to the MTSU 21Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+12
12.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 12 yds to the MTSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
12.9%
Jaiden Credle run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 32Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+3
12.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 3 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
12.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+5
12.2%
Grant Chadwick punt for 56 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 5 yds to the DUKE 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 2:1890% → 97%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
10.4%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 13Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+3
10.3%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the DUKE 16Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
10.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 8
OWN 16
+15
10.9%
(02:10) REYNOLDSON, Kade punt 48 yards to the MTSU36, fair catch by KELLY, Omari, clock 02:07. PENALTY MTSU Roughing the Kicker on ALEXANDER, Slade enforced 15 yards from the DUKE16 to the DUKE31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
10.3%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+10
9.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 10 yds Sahmir Hagans fumbled, recovered by DUKE Terry Moore T. Moore return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
8.8%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the DUKE 48Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+18
8.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 18 yds to the MTSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
3.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 34 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:543% → 3%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
2.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 8 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+18
2.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 18 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Offsides (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
2.4%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the DUKE 42Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 15
OPP 42
-4
2.4%
Roman Gagliano sacked by Wesley Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 46Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 19
OPP 46
0
2.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 19
OPP 46
+7
2.4%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 7 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
2.6%
Grant Chadwick punt for 31 yds, downed at the DUKE 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
2.8%
(00:08) [SG] Kneel down by MURPHY, Maalik at DUKE5 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:3897% → 97%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
3.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 19 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
3.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 9 yds to the MTSU 47Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+15
2.7%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jordan Thompson) to the MTSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
2.6%
Star Thomas run for 21 yds to the MTSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
2.6%
Henry Belin IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 6Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
2.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
2.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Chase Tyler for 1 yd to the MTSU 5Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
2.8%
Todd Pelino 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 4:103% → 2%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
2.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hayes Sutton for 6 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+6
2.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 6 yds to the MTSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
2.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+10
2.2%
Terry Wilkins run for 10 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
2.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 8
50
+2
2.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-9
2.2%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Kevin O'Connor and Preston Watson for a loss of 9 yards to the MTSU 43Similar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
1.9%
Grant Chadwick punt for 55 yds, downed at the DUKE 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:1898% → 98%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
1.9%
Peyton Jones run for no gain to the DUKE 2Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+5
1.8%
(07:20) MURPHY, Maalik pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to DALMOLIN, Nicky to the DUKE7 (BYARD, Muaaz), clock 07:17. PENALTY MTSU Offsides on SMITH, Damonte enforced 5 yards from the DUKE2 to the DUKE7 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+3
1.8%
Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the DUKE 10Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+1
1.5%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 11Similar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 1
OWN 11
-5
1.6%
Duke Penalty, False Start (Leon Griffin III) to the DUKE 6Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
1.6%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 50 yds, downed at the MTSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:321% → 4%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
1.0%
Jaiden Credle run for 8 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+1
0.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 1 yd to the DUKE 47Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+28
0.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 28 yds to the DUKE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
0.9%
Terry Wilkins run for 1 yd to the DUKE 18Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
0.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+9
0.4%
(02:35) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BUTLER, Myles thrown to the DUKE0, clock 02:33. PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Kimari enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the DUKE9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
0.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for a loss of 6 yards to the DUKE 15Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
3.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 15 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0298% → 98%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+25
1.8%
Star Thomas run for 25 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
1.6%
(01:08) THOMAS, Star rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the MTSU46 (HUGHES, Parker), clock 01:04. PENALTY DUKE Holding on PARKER II, Brian enforced 10 yards from the MTSU48 to the DUKE42 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+12
1.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 12 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
1.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 5 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-11
1.5%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Anthony Bynum and Alex Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the DUKE 48Similar
Q4 14:38
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
1.7%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Omari Kelly at the MTSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24INT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:353% → 2%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-4
2.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hayes Sutton for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 8Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 14
OWN 8
+3
2.1%
(13:56) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass up the middle incomplete intended for WILLIS, Holden thrown to the MTSU20, clock 13:54. PENALTY DUKE Pass Interference on NICHOLAS, Ozzie enforced at the spot of the foul for 3 yards to the MTSU11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
2.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-3
2.1%
Terry Wilkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 8Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 13
OWN 8
-12
1.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted DaShawn Stone return for 12 yds to the MTSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:5699% → 100%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
1.3%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the MTSU 13Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+12
1.3%
Star Thomas run for 12 yds to the MTSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26MISSED FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 5:390% → 0%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
0.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 23 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
0.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 5 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+5
0.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Brian Brewton for 5 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
0.2%
Terry Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 43Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+9
0.1%
Terry Wilkins run for 9 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+1
0.1%
Terry Wilkins run for 1 yd to the DUKE 33Similar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
0.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 3 yds to the DUKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
0.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
0.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for no gain to the DUKE 30Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-6
0.1%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Alex Howard for a loss of 6 yards to the DUKE 36Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 16
OPP 36
+53
0.1%
Zeke Rankin 53 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 4:06100% → 100%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.2%
Al Wooten II run for no gain to the DUKE 36Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
0.2%
Al Wooten II run for 1 yd to the DUKE 37Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+11
0.2%
Henry Belin IV run for 11 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
0.1%
Quran Boyd run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 8
50
-2
0.1%
Quran Boyd run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 48Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+1
0.1%
Henry Belin IV run for 1 yd to the DUKE 49Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
0.1%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:360% → 0%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
0.0%
Roman Gagliano run for 9 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
0.0%
Roman Gagliano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
0.0%
Roman Gagliano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
0.0%
Grant Chadwick punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:35100% → 100%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
0.1%
(01:07) [NH] Kneel down by BELIN IV, Henry at DUKE27 (team loss of 2), clock 01:02.Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-1
0.1%
(00:32) [NH] Kneel down by BELIN IV, Henry at DUKE26 (team loss of 1), clock 00:26.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:14
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 34 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q1 1:19
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 7 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-4.9
TD · Q3 1:48
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 15 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
+2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com