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CAL

California 9 at Florida State 14

FSU
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:38 · Alex Mastromanno punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Home team on offense+14.1Pregame prior+0.5Garbage-time factor+10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 1:30: Ryan Coe 51 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +12.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:08: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 36 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +22.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:49: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 13 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST down — FSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:48: Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the FSU 23 — CAL win probability +10.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:02: Timeout California, clock 01:02 — FSU win probability +16.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:16FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:43CAL 4th & 18 at CAL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:53CAL 4th & 3 at FSU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:10CAL 4th & 2 at FSU 7, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%−1.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−5.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:26FSU 4th & 6 at CAL 42, up 4
    Close callPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:52CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 35, down 4
    Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:39FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:23FSU 4th & 7 at CAL 38, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%
    38% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:49CAL 4th & 15 at FSU 18, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−3.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−9.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:26FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:15CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−2.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:16FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 19, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:30CAL 4th & 3 at FSU 33, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%−3.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−5.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:32FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 49, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.8%−5.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:07CAL 4th & 18 at FSU 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−6.5
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−12.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:38FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 18, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−5.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:38FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 18, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−5.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:49CAL 4th & 13 at FSU 45, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−2.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−3.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:54CAL 4th & 16 at FSU 23, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−4.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:47FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:08FSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3557% → 57%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
57.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
57.3%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 5 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
57.3%
PENALTY FSU False Start (Early,Jaylen) 5 yards from FSU34 to FSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
57.2%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:2343% → 42%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
57.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 2 yds to the CAL 21Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+8
57.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 8 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
57.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for 1 yd to the CAL 30Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-11
57.4%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Joshua Farmer for a loss of 11 yards to the CAL 19Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 20
OWN 19
+2
57.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 2 yds to the CAL 21 California Penalty, Illegal Motion (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
57.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:4858% → 61%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
57.8%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 15 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
58.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the CAL 44Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+16
58.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jalen Brown for 16 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
58.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 5 yds to the CAL 23Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+5
58.4%
Kam Davis run for 5 yds to the CAL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
58.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 12 yds to the CAL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
58.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the CAL 2Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:4540% → 39%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.3%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 25Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+28
60.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Corey Dyches for 28 yds to the FSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
59.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 5 yds to the FSU 42Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
59.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
60.1%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the FSU 40Similar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
60.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5INT
13 plays · 62 yds · 6:5062% → 65%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
62.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 19 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
62.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 7 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-5
63.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Malik Benson for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 41Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+11
62.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 11 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
63.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+12
64.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 12 yds to the CAL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
64.8%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 1 yd to the CAL 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+5
65.3%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 5 yds to the CAL 25Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+12
65.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 12 yds to the CAL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
65.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the CAL 11Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-10
65.9%
(14:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Uiagalelei,DJ pass complete short left to Toafili,Lawrance caught at CAL16, for 9 yards to the CAL02 (Saole-McKenzie,Stanley) PENALTY FSU Holding (Ferguson,TJ) 10 yards from CAL11 to CAL21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 18
OPP 21
+3
65.8%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 3 yds to the CAL 18Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 15
OPP 18
0
65.1%
Florida State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jalen Brown) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6FG
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:2736% → 39%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
64.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 46 yds to the FSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
62.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mason Starling for 14 yds to the FSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
62.0%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the FSU 16Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+4
62.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for 4 yds to the FSU 12Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+5
63.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 5 yds to the FSU 7Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+25
61.0%
Ryan Coe 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 4:3561% → 63%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
61.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kyle Morlock for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 25Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
60.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 14 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
63.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
64.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+10
63.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
64.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
64.9%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 5 yds to the CAL 49Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+7
63.0%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 7 yds to the CAL 42Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
63.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 1:3437% → 36%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
63.2%
(05:26) PENALTY CAL False Start (Swinney,Bastian) 1 yard from CAL02 to CAL01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 11
OWN 1
0
63.2%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Anderson,Mavin). NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 11
OWN 1
0
63.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
63.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 11
OWN 1
0
64.4%
(05:14) PENALTY CAL Delay Of Game. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+27
64.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Josiah Martin for 27 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
62.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+2
61.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Josiah Martin for 2 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
62.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
63.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Lawayne McCoy at the FSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:0663% → 61%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
63.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Malik Benson for 1 yd to the FSU 17Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
63.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+13
62.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jalen Brown for 13 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
63.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FSU 31Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-5
63.7%
PENALTY FSU False Start (Brown,Jalen) 5 yards from FSU31 to FSU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
63.2%
Kam Davis run for no gain to the FSU 26Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 14
OWN 26
0
62.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 14
OWN 26
+8
61.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 48 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 8 yds to the CAL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:1337% → 38%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
62.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Corey Dyches for 13 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
60.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
61.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass intercepted Edwin Joseph return for no gain to the CAL 48Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
61.7%
Florida State Penalty, Illegal Block (12 Yards) to the CAL 48Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
61.7%
Florida State Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the FSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:4566% → 65%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
66.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 16 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
66.7%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Xavier Carlton for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 42Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+4
66.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 4 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
65.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
64.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:1637% → 46%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
62.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mason Starling for 7 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+21
63.2%
Fernando Mendoza run for 6 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Edwin Joseph) to the FSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
60.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+23
61.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 23 yds to the FSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+29
54.3%
Ryan Coe 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13MISSED FG
18 plays · 57 yds · 5:0239% → 38%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
59.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 30Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+19
61.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mason Starling for 19 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
57.6%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Ott,Jaydn rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU48 (Kirkland,K.J.) PENALTY CAL Holding (Swinney,Bastian) 10 yards from CAL49 to CAL39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 20
OWN 39
-5
60.1%
PENALTY CAL Illegal Snap (McDonald,Will) 5 yards from CAL39 to CAL34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 25
OWN 34
+2
60.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 2 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 23
OWN 36
+25
61.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 25 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
57.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
57.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+15
58.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Corey Dyches for 15 yds to the FSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
56.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
56.4%
Jaivian Thomas run for 4 yds to the FSU 20Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+7
57.4%
Fernando Mendoza run for 7 yds to the FSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
55.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
55.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-5
57.9%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Patrick Payton for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 18Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+36
62.2%
Ryan Coe 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1462% → 60%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
61.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 7 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
62.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-3
61.2%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 24Similar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
59.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0139% → 35%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
61.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the CAL 22Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
61.6%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 22Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-2
63.2%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Patrick Payton for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 20Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
64.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 69 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4962% → 60%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
62.1%
Kam Davis run for 6 yds to the FSU 17Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 4
OWN 17
0
62.3%
Kam Davis run for no gain to the FSU 17Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+2
60.4%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 2 yds to the FSU 19Similar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
59.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 56 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for no gain to the CAL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:3739% → 55%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
61.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 12 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
60.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mason Starling for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
50
+1
57.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 49Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+11
58.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 11 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
57.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the FSU 38Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
57.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+5
57.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 5 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+51
45.1%
Ryan Coe 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:0850% → 78%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
50.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-12
50.1%
Florida State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-12 Yards) to the FSU 13Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+27
47.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 27 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
54.6%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 1 yd to the FSU 39Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+3
52.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 3 yds to the FSU 42Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+7
50.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 7 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
52.6%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
50
+5
54.9%
Kam Davis run for 5 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
55.5%
Kam Davis run for 6 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
55.4%
Kam Davis run for 3 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
55.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+36
78.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 36 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19MISSED FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 4:4932% → 25%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
68.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mason Starling for 15 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
66.0%
Jonathan Brady run for 4 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-10
64.1%
(10:24) Shotgun Thomas,Jaivian rush right for 15 yards gain to the FSU41 (Kirkland,K.J.) PENALTY CAL Holding (Swinney,Bastian) 10 yards from CAL44 to CAL34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+34
69.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 34 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
60.8%
Jaivian Thomas run for 7 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+3
60.1%
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the FSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
62.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for 10 yds to the FSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
62.4%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Reimer,Rush) 5 yards from FSU12 to FSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 15
OPP 17
-1
63.2%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Patrick Payton for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 18Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 16
OPP 18
-4
65.4%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Session,T.J.) 4 yards from FSU18 to FSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 20
OPP 22
0
67.0%
California Penalty, Illegal Motion (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 20
OPP 22
+2
70.2%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the FSU 20Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 18
OPP 20
+38
74.6%
Ryan Coe 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Shyheim BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2184% → 82%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the FSU 20Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
84.2%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 18Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
83.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
82.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 36Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
82.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 29 yds · 3:3727% → 15%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
72.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 32Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
76.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for no gain to the CAL 32Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+26
79.0%
Fernando Mendoza run for 26 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
69.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
70.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-3
72.9%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Marvin Jones Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 45Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 13
OPP 45
+13
77.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 13 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
66.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the FSU 23Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+6
65.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the FSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
63.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the FSU 12Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-5
63.6%
(01:20) PENALTY CAL False Start (Reimer,Rush) 5 yards from FSU12 to FSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-6
64.7%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Marvin Jones Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the FSU 23 Fernando Mendoza fumbled, recovered by CAL Rush Reimer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 16
OPP 23
0
81.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 16
OPP 23
-12
84.7%
Fernando Mendoza sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the FSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · -25 yds · 0:4895% → 96%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
94.8%
PENALTY FSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from FSU35 to FSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+15
94.5%
California Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Cade Uluave) to the FSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.6%
D. Uiagalelei takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
95.7%
D. Uiagalelei takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-5
95.9%
D. Uiagalelei takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:08
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 36 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+22.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:02
Timeout California, clock 01:02
+16.5
FG · Q3 1:30
Ryan Coe 51 yd FG GOOD
-12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com