Try the model
BALL

Ball State 0 at Miami 62

MIA
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:36 · Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+7.5Home team on offense+36.3Score differential+31.7Blowout margin+19.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+14.3Garbage-time factor+8.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:25: Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 21 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 4:46: Cam Ward pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 37 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:53: Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 21 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:30: Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 21 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:26: Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 17 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BALL made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 11:35BALL 4th & 18 at BALL 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:15MIA 4th & 9 at BALL 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:04BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:47BALL 4th & 12 at MIA 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:40MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:43BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:13BALL 4th & 3 at MIA 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:10BALL 4th & 13 at MIA 49, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:26BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 29, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:45MIA 4th & 1 at BALL 35, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:24MIA 4th & 4 at BALL 14, up 38
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:23BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 40, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:11BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 23, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:57BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 21, down 55
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:36BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, down 62
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 1:25MIA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:46MIA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:53MIA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:30MIA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:26MIA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:49MIA Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:46MIA Touchdown, up 54 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:40MIA Touchdown, up 61 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:241% → 2%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.6%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the BALL 26Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
98.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 20 yds to the BALL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
98.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 1 yd to the BALL 47Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+6
98.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Kiael Kelly for 6 yds to the MIA 47Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-10
98.4%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Simeon Barrow Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the BALL 43Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 13
OWN 43
-5
98.3%
Ball State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BALL 38Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 18
OWN 38
0
98.3%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 45 yds, downed at the MIA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:0998% → 98%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
98.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 5 yds to the MIA 22Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-1
98.2%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 21Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+12
98.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 12 yds to the MIA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
98.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 19 yds to the BALL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
98.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 3 yds to the BALL 45Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
98.0%
(08:40) WARD, Cameron pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Samuel thrown to the BSU1, clock 08:33. PENALTY BSU Offsides on HUGHES, Drew enforced 5 yards from the BSU45 to the BSU40 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+3
98.0%
Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
97.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Riley Williams for 24 yds to the BALL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
97.9%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the BALL 12Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
97.8%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
97.7%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+30
97.7%
Andres Borregales 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:052% → 3%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
97.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for no gain to the BALL 16Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-3
97.6%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Braedon Sloan for a loss of 3 yards to the BALL 13Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 13
OWN 13
+10
97.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 10 yds to the BALL 23Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
97.5%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 2:3298% → 98%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
97.5%
Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MIA 29Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 21
OWN 29
+25
97.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 25 yds to the BALL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
97.4%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the BALL 43Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+22
97.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 22 yds to the BALL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
98.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 21 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:383% → 3%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
97.4%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 18 yds to the BALL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
97.3%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the BALL 45Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+2
97.2%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the BALL 47Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+7
97.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 7 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.0%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
97.0%
Kiael Kelly run for no gain to the MIA 46Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-2
97.0%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Elijah Alston for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 48Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
97.1%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 41 yds, downed at the MIA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:0498% → 97%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
97.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 14Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+1
97.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 15Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+14
97.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 14 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.8%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
97.8%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
97.7%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
97.6%
Dylan Joyce punt for 46 yds , Qian Magwood returns for no gain to the BALL 25Similar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.0%
Miami Penalty, Offsides (Tyler Baron) to the BALL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:513% → 3%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
96.9%
Kiael Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
96.9%
Braedon Sloan run for 8 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
96.8%
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 37Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+3
96.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for 3 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-6
96.7%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Tyler Baron and Simeon Barrow Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the BALL 34Similar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
96.9%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:5098% → 99%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
97.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 20Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+20
97.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 20 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
97.7%
(06:35) WARD, Cameron pass deep to the right complete for 60 yards to HORTON, Isaiah caught at the BSU38 and advanced to the BSU0, TOUCHDOWN MIA, score nullified by penalty, clock 06:26 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MIA Personal Foul on BELL, Markel enforced 15 yards from the MIA40 to the MIA25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 25
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 25
OWN 25
+16
97.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 16 yds to the MIA 41Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+22
97.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 22 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
97.5%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
98.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 37 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:322% → 3%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the BALL 31Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
97.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for no gain to the BALL 31Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
97.5%
(03:22) SEMONZA, Kadin pass to the left incomplete intended for MAGWOOD, Qian thrown to the BSU44; QB hurried by BISSAINTHE, Wesley, clock 03:19. PENALTY MIA Roughing the Passer on BISSAINTHE, Wesley enforced 15 yards from the BSU31 to the BSU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
97.4%
Christian Davis run for 2 yds to the BALL 48Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
97.4%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 8
OWN 48
+5
97.4%
(02:19) COOEY, Brian punt 52 yards to the MIA0, Touchback, clock 02:14. PENALTY MIA Offsides on BARON, Tyler enforced 5 yards from the BSU48 to the MIA47 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
97.5%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:1598% → 99%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+32
98.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 32 yds to the BALL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 21 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:041% → 1%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
98.7%
Kadin Semonza pass intercepted Elijah Alston return for 3 yds to the BALL 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:1099% → 100%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.0%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 21 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 14 yds to the BALL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 8 yds to the BALL 47Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+7
99.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 7 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-3
99.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Nick Munson for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 49Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
99.6%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.6%
Jordan Lyle run for 6 yds to the MIA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.6%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
99.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the MIA 35Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+11
99.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 11 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
99.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 29 yds to the BALL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
99.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 8 yds to the BALL 17Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+17
99.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 17 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the BALL 26Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Braedon Sloan run for no gain to the BALL 26Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
99.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 3 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 39 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for no gain to the MIA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 6:54100% → 100%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
99.8%
Jordan Lyle run for 4 yds to the MIA 27Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+9
99.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Cam McCormick for 9 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.8%
Jordan Lyle run for 9 yds to the MIA 45Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+11
99.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 11 yds Isaiah Horton fumbled, recovered by MIA Isaiah Horton I. Horton return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
99.8%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 45Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+6
99.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the BALL 39Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Samuel Brown for 4 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+5
99.8%
Jordan Lyle run for 5 yds to the BALL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
99.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 10 yds to the BALL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.8%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the BALL 17Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Emory Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+3
99.9%
Emory Williams pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 3 yds to the BALL 14Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
99.9%
Andres Borregales 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:590% → 0%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 5 yds to the BALL 30Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 5 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Christian Abney for 11 yds to the BALL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-6
99.9%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Malik Bryant for a loss of 6 yards to the BALL 40Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 16
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 56 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for no gain to the MIA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
2 plays · 90 yds · 0:17100% → 100%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+34
99.9%
Ajay Allen run for 34 yds to the MIA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
99.9%
Ajay Allen run for 56 yds for a TD (Abram Murray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
99.9%
Christian Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 26Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 11
OWN 26
-3
99.9%
Christian Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the BALL 23Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 14
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Aidan Leffler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 14
OWN 23
+12
99.9%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 46 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for 12 yds to the MIA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.9%
Emory Williams pass complete to Joshisa Trader for 15 yds to the BALL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+40
99.9%
Emory Williams pass complete to Elija Lofton for 40 yds for a TD (Abram Murray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Aidan Leffler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Aidan Leffler pass complete to Qian Magwood for 1 yd to the BALL 26Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Aidan Leffler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
100.0%
Ball State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the BALL 21Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 4:08100% → 100%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.9%
Jordan Lyle run for 8 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Jordan Lyle run for 1 yd to the MIA 49Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Jordan Lyle run for 7 yds to the BALL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
99.9%
Emory Williams pass complete to Ray Ray Joseph for 16 yds to the BALL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
99.9%
Jordan Lyle run for 10 yds to the BALL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
100.0%
Jordan Lyle run for 11 yds to the BALL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
100.0%
Jordan Lyle run for 7 yds for a TD (Abram Murray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Charlie Spegal run for 7 yds to the BALL 32Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
100.0%
Charlie Spegal run for 2 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Charlie Spegal run for no gain to the BALL 34Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25END OF GAME
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:06100% → 100%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
100.0%
Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ray Ray Joseph) to the MIA 14Similar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 18
OWN 14
+1
100.0%
Ajay Allen run for 1 yd to the MIA 15Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+11
100.0%
Emory Williams pass complete to Elija Lofton for 11 yds to the MIA 26Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+36
100.0%
Emory Williams pass complete to Ray Ray Joseph for 36 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
100.0%
Ajay Allen run for 4 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
100.0%
Ajay Allen run for 5 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+9
100.0%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the BALL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
100.0%
Chris Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the BALL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:46
Cam Ward pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for 37 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q2 1:53
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 21 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
+1
TD · Q1 1:25
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 21 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
+0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com