2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadVMI aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreVMI score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:51 · Ben Shrewsbury punt for 29 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:52: Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 35 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:08: Zach Pyron run for 1 yd for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:04: Zach Pyron run for 1 yd for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:49: Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 14 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:30: Haynes King pass complete to Avery Boyd for 33 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5VMI made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 12:58VMI 4th & 3 at VMI 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.2%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 11:46GT 4th & 15 at GT 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%average punt
- Q1 7:39GT 4th & 7 at VMI 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.3%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call98.4%87% to makePunt97.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:33VMI 4th & 22 at VMI 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 3:21VMI 4th & 3 at VMI 32, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 13:45VMI 4th & 10 at VMI 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 8:11VMI 4th & 9 at VMI 27, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 5:14GT 4th & 11 at GT 48, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q2 2:59VMI 4th & 1 at VMI 25, down 24Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:23VMI 4th & 12 at VMI 23, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 6:45VMI 4th & 8 at VMI 27, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 5:20GT 4th & 11 at VMI 44, up 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.127% to convertField goal99.8%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 2:51VMI 4th & 4 at VMI 11, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:37VMI 4th & 2 at GT 2, down 52Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%48% to convertField goal-0.0%−<0.194% to makePunt-0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:01GT 4th & 8 at VMI 43, up 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%34% to convertField goal99.9%−0.128% to makePunt99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:29VMI 4th & 2 at VMI 33, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 8 of 8VMI made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 4:52GT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:08GT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:04GT Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:49GT Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:30GT Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:38GT Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:32GT Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:37VMI Touchdown, down 46 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:29GT Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVMIDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
99.0%
Chandler Wilson pass complete to Ivan Thorpe for 3 yds to the VMI 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
99.0%
Chandler Wilson pass complete to Aslin Shipe for 6 yds to the VMI 32Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
98.9%
Ben Shrewsbury punt for 57 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for 1 yd to the GT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 3FUMBLE3 plays · 9 yds · 1:281% → 1%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
98.7%
Chandler Wilson pass complete to Ivan Thorpe for 5 yds to the GT 43Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+5
98.6%
Chandler Wilson pass complete to Julio DaSilva for 5 yds Julio DaSilva fumbled, recovered by GT Clayton Powell-Lee C. Powell-Lee return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4FG8 plays · 50 yds · 2:1499% → 98%
VMIDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -12 yds · 2:062% → 2%
GTDrive 6TD2 plays · 50 yds · 0:4198% → 98%
VMIDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:142% → 2%
GTDrive 8TD7 plays · 73 yds · 2:5898% → 99%
Q1 3:06
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
98.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 5 yds to the GT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+50
98.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 50 yds to the VMI 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+13
98.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 13 yds to the VMI 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:232% → 2%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-10
98.6%
SHIPE, Aslin rush to the right for a gain of 18 yards to the VMI38 (TOBE, Zachary), clock 00:00. PENALTY VMI Holding on MCPHAUL, Morgan enforced 10 yards from the VMI20 to the VMI10 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+16
98.6%
Chandler Wilson pass complete to Ivan Thorpe for 16 yds to the VMI 25Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+18
98.5%
Ben Shrewsbury punt for 48 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for 18 yds to the GT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10TD7 plays · 55 yds · 2:4199% → 99%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+32
98.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 32 yds to the VMI 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
98.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 3 yds to the VMI 20Similar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+17
98.7%
Jamal Haynes run for 17 yds to the VMI 4 Jamal Haynes fumbled, recovered by GTSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:311% → 1%
GTDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 2:5799% → 99%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
99.0%
KING, Haynes pass up the middle incomplete intended for LANE, Chase broken up by RANKIN, Eric at the GT34. PENALTY VMI Roughing the Passer on RANKIN, Eric enforced 15 yards from the GT23 to the GT38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 5 yds to the GT 43Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-4
99.1%
Malik Rutherford run for 6 yds to the VMI 45 Georgia Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GT 40Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 19
OWN 40
+8
99.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Christian Leary for 8 yds to the GT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:091% → 1%
Q2 4:16
2ND & 9
OWN 17
-9
98.9%
Chandler Wilson sacked by Sylvain Yondjouen for a loss of 9 yards to the VMI 8Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 18
OWN 8
+17
98.9%
Chandler Wilson pass complete to Hunter Rice for 17 yds to the VMI 25Similar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+26
98.8%
Ben Shrewsbury punt for 43 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for 26 yds to the VMI 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14TD5 plays · 42 yds · 0:5699% → 100%
VMIDrive 15PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:260% → 0%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Chandler Wilson pass complete to Destin Moore for 1 yd to the VMI 26Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
99.8%
Chandler Wilson sacked by Joshua Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the VMI 21Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+2
99.8%
Chandler Wilson pass complete to Luke Schalow for 2 yds to the VMI 23Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-2
99.8%
Ben Shrewsbury punt for 48 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for a loss of 2 yards to the GT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16TD5 plays · 73 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 8 yds to the GT 35Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 7 yds to the GT 48Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+19
99.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 19 yds to the VMI 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
99.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Avery Boyd for 33 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 17END OF HALF2 plays · -10 yds · 0:220% → 0%
GTDrive 18TD5 plays · 60 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q3 6:45
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Ben Shrewsbury punt for 41 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for 3 yds to the GT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
VMIDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:290% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22TD3 plays · 40 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
Q3 1:32
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
99.9%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Leo Blackburn for 24 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 23TD13 plays · 75 yds · 9:550% → 0%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Brady Hammonds pass complete to Ethen Horne for 5 yds to the VMI 30Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
99.9%
HAMMONDS, Brady pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LHOTSKY, Nathan thrown to the GT48. PENALTY GT Pass Interference on DEAN, Austin enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the VMI41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+34
100.0%
Brady Hammonds pass complete to Owen Sweeney for 34 yds to the GT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
100.0%
SCHALOW, Luke rush up the middle for no gain to the GT12 (GORE, Thomas;JONES, Shymeik). PENALTY GT Face mask on DEAN, Austin enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the GT12 to the GT6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Brady Hammonds pass complete to Ethen Horne for 2 yds for a TD (Caden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24TD8 plays · 65 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
100.0%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Abdul Janneh Jr. for 1 yd to the GT 36Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-10
100.0%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VMI 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 8
OPP 43
+41
100.0%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Chris Elko for 41 yds to the VMI 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q4 2:29
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+20
100.0%
Ben Shrewsbury punt for 52 yds , Bailey Stockton returns for 20 yds to the GT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 26END OF GAME7 plays · 33 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:55
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+7
100.0%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Luke Harpring for 7 yds to the VMI 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:49
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 14 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 0:08
Zach Pyron run for 1 yd for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 11:04
Zach Pyron run for 1 yd for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+0.4