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PITT

Pittsburgh 28 at Cincinnati 27

CIN
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:29 · Caleb Junko punt for 39 yds, downed at the CIN 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Home team on offense+9.4Score differential+3.0Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Pregame prior−1.0Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:25: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 16 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK) — CIN win probability +12.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:46: Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 11 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +11.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:41: Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 38 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — PITT win probability +7.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:40: Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 56 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — PITT win probability +25.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 0:17: Ben Sauls 35 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +57.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:06CIN 4th & 14 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:52PITT 4th & 7 at CIN 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:33PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 18, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:11CIN 4th & 24 at PITT 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:29PITT 4th & 15 at PITT 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:44CIN 4th & 1 at PITT 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−1.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:25CIN 4th & 6 at PITT 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−4.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:59PITT 4th & 3 at CIN 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−2.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:50PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:50CIN 4th & 9 at PITT 9, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:11CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:41PITT 4th & 3 at CIN 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−1.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:57CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−3.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:46CIN 4th & 3 at PITT 48, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.2 ptsPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−4.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:17PITT 4th & 8 at CIN 17, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−39.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−48.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 7:47CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:11CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:25CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:46PITT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:41PITT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:40PITT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    34.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:5448% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 1 yd to the CIN 26Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
48.4%
Corey Kiner run for 11 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
48.6%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 39Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+15
48.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 15 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
49.1%
Evan Pryor run for 3 yds to the PITT 43Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
49.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-7
49.3%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Sincere Edwards for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 14
50
0
48.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2INT
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:4351% → 51%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
49.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 13 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+23
49.0%
Desmond Reid run for 23 yds to the CIN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
48.6%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
48.7%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+15
48.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 15 yds to the CIN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
48.6%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
48.6%
Eli Holstein pass intercepted, touchback. Josh Minkins return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2050% → 53%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
49.5%
Corey Kiner run for 28 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
50.0%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 48Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
50.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+52
52.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 52 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:5048% → 47%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
52.5%
Desmond Reid run for 14 yds to the PITT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
52.4%
Desmond Reid run for 6 yds to the PITT 43Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+12
52.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 12 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
52.2%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+5
52.4%
Eli Holstein run for 5 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
52.6%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the CIN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
52.5%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
52.5%
Eli Holstein run for 3 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
53.4%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
52.7%
Ben Sauls 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4053% → 60%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.5%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
52.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+34
52.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 34 yds to the PITT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+32
54.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 32 yds to the PITT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
54.6%
Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd to the PITT 5Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 5 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3341% → 40%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
58.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 4 yds to the PITT 18Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
59.0%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
59.5%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:33
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
59.9%
Caleb Junko punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7FG
15 plays · 31 yds · 7:1360% → 70%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
59.9%
Evan Pryor run for 4 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
60.5%
Evan Pryor run for 2 yds to the CIN 44Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+15
60.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
61.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
61.6%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the PITT 39Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+9
62.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 9 yds to the PITT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
64.0%
Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd to the PITT 29Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
64.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+12
64.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 12 yds to the PITT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-15
65.5%
Cincinnati Penalty, Personal Foul (Corey Kiner) to the PITT 30Similar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 23
OPP 30
-2
65.6%
Chance Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 32Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 25
OPP 32
+7
66.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 7 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 18
OPP 25
-10
66.1%
(09:22) SORSBY, Brendan pass up the middle complete for 19 yards to TURNER, Aaron caught at the PIT11 and advanced to the PIT6 (GANDY, Ryland), clock 09:15. PENALTY CIN Holding on TINSLEY, Dartanyan enforced 10 yards from the PIT25 to the PIT35 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 28
OPP 35
+4
66.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 24
OPP 31
+49
69.5%
Carter Brown 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:3230% → 28%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
69.7%
Desmond Reid run for 9 yds to the PITT 19Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+3
69.7%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
70.2%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gavin Bartholomew) to the PITT 15Similar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 17
OWN 15
+2
70.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 2 yds to the PITT 17Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
71.0%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 15
OWN 17
0
71.3%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
71.6%
Caleb Junko punt for 39 yds, downed at the CIN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9MISSED FG
16 plays · 49 yds · 5:5673% → 76%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
73.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 9 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
73.8%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
73.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
74.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 11 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
74.7%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
75.4%
Brendan Sorsby run for 4 yds to the PITT 24Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
74.2%
Chance Williams run for no gain to the PITT 24Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
74.1%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the PITT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
77.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+10
77.1%
Corey Kiner run for 10 yds to the PITT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
77.6%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the PITT 7Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
78.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
76.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
75.7%
Carter Brown 25 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10FG
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:2324% → 30%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
76.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 20 yds to the PITT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
75.8%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+25
76.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 25 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+53
69.9%
Ben Sauls 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2430% → 28%
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
70.1%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-1
70.2%
Eli Holstein run for 9 yds to the PITT 36 Pittsburgh Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jason Collier Jr.) to the PITT 49Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+9
71.8%
Desmond Reid run for 9 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
71.1%
Desmond Reid run for no gain to the CIN 42Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
72.4%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:4376% → 90%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
76.4%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+16
76.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 16 yds to the PITT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
77.1%
Brendan Sorsby run for 7 yds to the PITT 32Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+3
77.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 3 yds to the PITT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
77.6%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the PITT 28Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
78.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+13
77.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 13 yds to the PITT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
79.1%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Deondre Buford) to the PITT 20Similar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+7
77.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Aaron Turner for 7 yds to the PITT 13Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-3
78.2%
Evan Pryor run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 16Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+16
90.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 16 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3512% → 12%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Derrick Davis Jr. for 3 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
87.1%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
88.1%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
88.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 12 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:5891% → 96%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
90.8%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the PITT 36Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+26
91.0%
Corey Kiner run for 26 yds to the PITT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
91.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
91.4%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the PITT 9Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
91.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
95.5%
Carter Brown 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:045% → 16%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.9%
Desmond Reid run for 9 yds to the PITT 34Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
94.7%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
50
+11
94.7%
Eli Holstein run for 11 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
94.9%
Eli Holstein run for 10 yds to the CIN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
94.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 8 yds to the CIN 21Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
94.5%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+4
95.0%
Kenny Johnson run for 4 yds to the CIN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
94.8%
Eli Holstein sacked by Jonathan Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the CIN 16Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+5
95.7%
Eli Holstein run for 5 yds to the CIN 11Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
84.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 11 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:2891% → 92%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
90.9%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+26
91.1%
Corey Kiner run for 26 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
92.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
92.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
91.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 34 yds, downed at the PITT 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 3:2211% → 20%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
88.7%
Eli Holstein run for 5 yds to the PITT 23Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+16
88.0%
Desmond Reid run for 16 yds to the PITT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
87.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 16 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
87.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Jake Overman for 9 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 1
OPP 36
-2
87.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Jake Overman for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 38Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
88.1%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for no gain to the CIN 38Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+38
80.5%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 38 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:4485% → 86%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 11 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
86.5%
Chance Williams run for 4 yds to the CIN 40Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
87.7%
Chance Williams run for 1 yd to the CIN 41Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-9
87.8%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Shadarian Harrison for a loss of 9 yards to the CIN 32Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
86.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 62 yds, downed at the PITT 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD
7 plays · 94 yds · 2:0314% → 41%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
86.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 12 yds to the PITT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
86.2%
Desmond Reid run for 7 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+4
85.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 4 yds to the PITT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
85.5%
Desmond Reid run for 1 yd to the PITT 30Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+14
86.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 14 yds to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.7%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+56
59.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 56 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:5370% → 75%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.1%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
72.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 12 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
76.2%
Corey Kiner run for 9 yds to the PITT 46Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-2
78.4%
Evan Pryor run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 48Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
78.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
75.4%
Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 2:2033% → 85%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
66.7%
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 18Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+8
68.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 8 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
67.4%
(01:59) DAVIS JR., Derrick rush up the middle for no gain to the PIT26 (CORLEONE, Dontay;WILSON, Kam), clock 01:55. PENALTY Before the snap, CIN Delay Of Game on WILSON, Kam enforced 5 yards from the PIT26 to the PIT31 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
65.7%
Eli Holstein run for 7 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+9
64.9%
Desmond Reid run for 9 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+34
66.5%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 34 yds to the CIN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
58.7%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for 6 yds to the CIN 13Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-6
63.2%
Eli Holstein sacked by Dontay Corleone for a loss of 6 yards to the CIN 19Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+2
70.7%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the CIN 17Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
14.7%
Ben Sauls 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:1633% → 21%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Aaron Turner for 6 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-4
33.3%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Nate Matlack for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 27Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
20.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 8 yds Corey Kiner fumbled, recovered by PITT Javon McIntyre J. McIntyre return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:17
Ben Sauls 35 yd FG GOOD
-57.5
TD · Q4 5:40
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 56 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-25.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-20.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com