2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · JMA Wireless Dome
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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:03 · Kyle McCord run for a loss of 2 yards to the GT 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:19: Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 20 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — SYR win probability +11.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:39: Haynes King run for 26 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +7.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:51: Brady Denaburg 33 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +7.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:39: Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 17 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — SYR win probability +11.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:31: Jamal Haynes run for 15 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +22.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 7:52SYR 4th & 1 at GT 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.2%70% to convertField goal45.7%−0.532% to makePunt45.8%−0.4average punt
- Q1 1:58SYR 4th & 7 at GT 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snapGo for it47.8%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call47.9%64% to makePunt46.3%−1.6average punt
- Q1 0:45GT 4th & 5 at GT 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snapGo for it52.3%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.7%average punt
- Q2 10:37GT 4th & 2 at GT 45, down 7Close callPunted · 44.5% before the snapGo for it44.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.7%−0.9average punt
- Q2 1:29SYR 4th & 10 at GT 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snapGo for it61.0%−0.130% to convertField goal60.6%−0.527% to makePuntTheir call61.2%average punt
- Q2 0:13GT 4th & 3 at SYR 42, down 7Close callWent for it · 39.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.4%−0.552% to convertField goal40.0%30% to makePunt38.6%−1.3average punt
- Q3 13:46GT 4th & 6 at GT 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snapGo for it35.3%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.6%average punt
- Q3 11:18SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt64.5%−2.6average punt
- Q3 6:51SYR 4th & 7 at GT 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snapGo for it71.0%−0.934% to convertField goalTheir call71.9%83% to makePunt63.5%−8.4average punt
- Q3 4:06GT 4th & 4 at GT 43, down 10Close callPunted · 22.5% before the snapGo for it23.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 0:04SYR 4th & 7 at GT 49, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it81.7%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.1%average punt
- Q4 12:40GT 4th & 1 at GT 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt16.5%−1.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 12:21SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.7%97% to makeGo for two45.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:52GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.3%97% to makeGo for two54.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:27SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.9%97% to makeGo for two53.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:19SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.8%97% to makeGo for two68.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:39GT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.7%97% to makeGo for two38.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:39SYR Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 5:08GT Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.1%97% to makeGo for two7.7%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 2:31GT Touchdown, down 4 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 2.5 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call15.4%−2.597% to makeGo for two17.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3938% → 41%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+20
38.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Will Nixon for 20 yds to the GT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
38.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 10 yds to the GT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
38.3%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Zeed Haynes, broken up by Ahmari HarveySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+28
38.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 28 yds to the GT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
40.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 11 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2960% → 60%
Q1 12:21
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+19
40.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Avery Boyd for 19 yds to the GT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
40.0%
Haynes,Jamal rush (Watson,Maraad ;Wilson Jr.,Dion), PENALTY SYR off-side 5 yards to the GaT38. Syracuse Penalty, off-side (5 Yards) to the GT 48Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+16
39.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 16 yds to the SYR 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
39.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 8 yds to the SYR 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3MISSED FG14 plays · 49 yds · 5:5441% → 43%
Q1 7:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
40.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Zeed Haynes for 11 yds to the SYR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
41.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 15 yds to the GT 46 Syracuse Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SYR 44Similar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+6
41.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1358% → 57%
Q1 1:58
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
42.1%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Chase Lane, broken up by Alijah ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5TD7 plays · 70 yds · 3:1844% → 53%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
43.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 21 yds to the GT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
45.2%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Dan Villari, broken up by LaMiles BrooksSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+32
43.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 32 yds to the GT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
45.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 5 yds to the GT 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+6
45.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 6 yds to the GT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
52.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 11 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5050% → 49%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
50.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 12 yds to the GT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
49.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 7 yds to the GT 44Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
51.5%
David Shanahan punt for 44 yds , Trebor Pena returns for no gain to the SYR 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7TD9 plays · 89 yds · 4:1852% → 66%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+32
52.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 32 yds to the SYR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
54.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 9 yds to the GT 34Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+8
53.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 8 yds to the GT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+20
66.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 20 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4036% → 46%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
64.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 45 yds to the SYR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 3:1058% → 59%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
58.0%
Nixon,Will rush (Powell-Lee,Clayton), PENALTY SYR holding 10 yards to the SYR35. Syracuse Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SYR 15Similar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+30
57.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 30 yds to the SYR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
59.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 8 yds to the GT 47Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
58.5%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to LeQuint Allen, broken up by Trenilyas TatumSimilar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
58.7%
punt for no gain , Jackson Hamilton returns for no gain to the GT 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10MISSED FG7 plays · 31 yds · 14:4754% → 42%
Q2 1:29
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
56.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 5 yds to the SYR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
55.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for no gain to the SYR 46Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+14
57.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 14 yds to the SYR 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1441% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12FG15 plays · 65 yds · 6:5562% → 74%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
62.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 15 yds to the SYR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
62.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for no gain to the SYR 35Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
62.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 4 yds to the SYR 39Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
66.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 4 yds to the GT 38Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+9
66.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Zeed Haynes for 9 yds to the GT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
67.4%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Zeed Haynes, broken up by Warren BurrellSimilar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+7
66.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 7 yds to the GT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
67.4%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Jackson Meeks, broken up by Clayton Powell-LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 2:3827% → 24%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
73.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for no gain to the GT 22Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+15
73.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 15 yds to the GT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
72.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 3 yds to the GT 40Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+8
73.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 8 yds to the GT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 43 yds · 4:0276% → 81%
Q3 4:06
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
77.4%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Oronde Gadsden II, broken up by Rodney ShelleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15DOWNS7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2019% → 18%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
81.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 5 yds to the GT 16Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
81.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Anthony Carrie for 3 yds to the GT 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+6
81.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 6 yds to the GT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16TD8 plays · 32 yds · 4:0185% → 96%
GTDrive 17TD15 plays · 75 yds · 3:314% → 12%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 5 yds to the GT 30Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
95.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 5 yds to the GT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
95.5%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Avery Boyd, broken up by Clarence LewisSimilar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+22
95.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 7 yds to the SYR 44 for a 1ST down Syracuse Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SYR 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
95.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Abdul Janneh Jr. for no gain to the SYR 29 Georgia Tech Penalty, illegal shift (Christian Leary) to the SYR 34Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 15
OPP 34
-5
95.0%
Georgia Tech Penalty, false start (Christian Leary) to the SYR 39Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 20
OPP 39
+14
95.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Avery Boyd for 14 yds to the SYR 25Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+20
95.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Avery Boyd for 20 yds to the SYR 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 4 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD10 plays · 56 yds · 2:3510% → 34%
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
89.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Bailey Stockton for 12 yds to the SYR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
89.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 10 yds to the SYR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
88.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 7 yds to the SYR 27Similar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
87.6%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr., broken up by Clarence LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19Uncategorized9 plays · 38 yds · 1:2884% → 91%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for no gain to the SYR 25Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
83.8%
pass incomplete to Zeed Haynes Syracuse Penalty, personal foul (Yards) to the SYR 25Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
82.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 13 yds to the SYR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:31
Jamal Haynes run for 15 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
-22.6
TD · Q2 6:19
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 20 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q4 8:39
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 17 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
+11.5