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DUKE

Duke 26 at Northwestern 20

NU
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2024 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Mike Wright pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsDefense timeoutsOffense timeouts
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 11:39: Jack Olsen 35 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +8.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 0:14: Todd Pelino 22 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +23.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Cam Porter 10 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick) — NU win probability +19.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 25 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +41.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Eli Pancol 3 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — DUKE win probability +31.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10DUKE made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 11:46NU 4th & 2 at DUKE 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:34DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:54NU 4th & 8 at NU 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:23DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:31NU 4th & 23 at DUKE 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:01DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:03NU 4th & 13 at NU 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−2.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:35DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 48, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:40NU 4th & 10 at NU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:07DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:46DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−2.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:50NU 4th & 11 at DUKE 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−7.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:00DUKE 4th & 11 at NU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:47NU 4th & 3 at NU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:52DUKE 4th & 2 at NU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    43.8%−4.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−4.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:39NU 4th & 9 at DUKE 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−16.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:53DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:33NU 4th & 12 at DUKE 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:04DUKE 4th & 2 at NU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−8.7
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−23.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:00NU 4th & 11 at NU 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−6.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:14DUKE 4th & 2 at NU 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−18.4
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.5%
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−31.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:50DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:32NU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 14:1552% → 55%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+2
52.0%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 10Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+44
52.1%
Cam Porter run for 44 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
52.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Marshall Lang for 12 yds to the DUKE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
52.6%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
52.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 6 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+2
52.8%
Mike Wright pass complete to Mike Wright for 2 yds to the DUKE 26Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+44
53.0%
Jack Olsen 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
55.0%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the NU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:0247% → 46%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
52.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 19Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+3
53.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 3 yds to the DUKE 22Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+6
53.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the DUKE 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
53.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 9 yds to the DUKE 37Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 1
OWN 37
-1
53.0%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 36Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+9
53.4%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
53.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 3 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
53.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the DUKE 49Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
53.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
54.0%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:1654% → 53%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
53.6%
Joseph Himon II run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 3Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+5
53.7%
Joseph Himon II run for 5 yds to the NU 8Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
53.4%
Mike Wright pass intercepted Terry Moore return for no gain to the NU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:1747% → 50%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
53.0%
Jaquez Moore run for 8 yds to the NU 21Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+3
53.0%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
53.1%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NU 16Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
50.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 16 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:5051% → 51%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
51.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Porter for 11 yds to the NU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
51.6%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
51.5%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the NU 41Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-3
51.8%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 38Similar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+3
50.7%
Luke Akers punt for 35 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 3 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2649% → 48%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
51.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
51.3%
Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+2
51.3%
Maalik Murphy run for 2 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+7
51.7%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 60 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 7 yds to the NU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
16 plays · 48 yds · 8:4351% → 48%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
50.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 2 yds to the NU 14Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+12
50.8%
Mike Wright run for 12 yds to the NU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
51.0%
(14:53) KOMOLAFE, Caleb rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the NU34 (STINSON, Jaylen), clock 14:52. PENALTY NU Holding on GORDON, Thomas enforced 10 yards from the NU26 to the NU16 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+4
50.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 4 yds to the NU 20Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 16
OWN 20
+4
50.6%
Caleb Komolafe run for 4 yds to the NU 24Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+16
49.8%
Mike Wright pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 16 yds to the NU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
52.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 11 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
52.8%
QB Keeper WRIGHT, Mike rush to the left for no gain to the DU49, out of bounds, clock 11:39. PENALTY DU Offsides on WILLIAMS, Wesley enforced 5 yards from the DU49 to the DU44 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 5
OPP 44
+7
53.0%
Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 7 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
52.9%
Mike Wright run for 10 yds to the DUKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
53.6%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 32Similar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+3
52.9%
Caleb Komolafe run for 3 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-4
53.0%
Caleb Komolafe run for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 33Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 16
OPP 33
-7
49.6%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 7 yards to the DUKE 40Similar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 23
OPP 40
+28
47.5%
Luke Akers punt 28 yards to the DU12 muffed by Que'Sean Brown at the DU12, recovered by NU FITZGERALD, Robert at the DU11, returned 0 yards to the DUKE 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:4752% → 61%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
52.4%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the DUKE 9Similar
Q2 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
60.5%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:2643% → 43%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
56.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
57.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
55.5%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the DUKE 44Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
55.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
55.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
57.3%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5358% → 55%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
57.6%
Joseph Himon II run for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 9Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 13
OWN 9
0
56.9%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 13
OWN 9
0
55.9%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 13
OWN 9
0
55.3%
Luke Akers punt for 40 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for no gain to the DUKE 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2345% → 43%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
55.5%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
55.5%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
55.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
56.7%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:4758% → 56%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+25
57.8%
Mike Wright pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 25 yds to the NU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.5%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
58.1%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
56.9%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
56.1%
Luke Akers punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2242% → 39%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
58.0%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the DUKE 19Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
58.5%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the DUKE 22Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-1
59.3%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 21Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
61.0%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
61.4%
(00:02) [SG] Kneel down by WRIGHT, Mike at NU39 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0441% → 38%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
59.2%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
58.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:23
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-4
60.0%
Maalik Murphy sacked by R.J. Pearson for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 24Similar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
62.0%
punt blocked by Noah Taylor blocked by Noah Taylor , returns for no gain to the DUKE 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16MISSED FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5264% → 61%
Q3 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
64.4%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 11Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
64.7%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
63.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
60.8%
Jack Olsen 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:2740% → 41%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
59.6%
Peyton Jones run for 4 yds to the DUKE 24Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
59.4%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Calvin Johnson II return for no gain to the DUKE 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:3964% → 64%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
63.9%
Caleb Komolafe run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 46Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+8
63.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 8 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-5
63.9%
Caleb Komolafe run for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 46 Caleb Komolafe fumbled, recovered by DUKE Ozzie Nicholas O. Nicholas return for 3 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FG
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:2543% → 47%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
57.0%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 6
50
+7
56.6%
Henry Belin IV run for 7 yds to the NU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
56.7%
Henry Belin IV run for 5 yds to the NU 38Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+7
56.3%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jordan Moore for 7 yds to the NU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
55.5%
QB Keeper BELIN IV, Henry rush to the right for no gain to the NU31 (SMITH, Evan), clock 08:37. PENALTY DU Holding declined DU Tripping on FINA, Bruno enforced 15 yards from the NU31 to the NU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 25
OPP 46
0
57.9%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 25
OPP 46
+15
58.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 15 yds to the NU 31Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-5
57.1%
Duke Penalty, False Start (Bruno Fina) to the NU 36Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 15
OPP 36
+4
59.8%
Peyton Jones run for 4 yds to the NU 32Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+49
53.3%
Todd Pelino 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0656% → 56%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Porter for 11 yds to the NU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
57.5%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 38Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
58.0%
Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the NU 43Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
58.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
56.3%
Luke Akers punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:4648% → 42%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
52.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 14 yds to the DUKE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
51.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 9 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+10
48.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 10 yds to the NU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
47.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 4 yds to the NU 43Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
47.8%
Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the NU 40Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+1
47.8%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the NU 39Similar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
50.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
58.2%
Duke Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the NU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 5:0660% → 69%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 5
OWN 44
0
60.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+6
59.8%
Mike Wright pass complete to Duke Olges for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
50
+8
60.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 8 yds to the DUKE 42Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+11
61.1%
Joseph Himon II run for 11 yds to the DUKE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
62.5%
Joseph Himon II run for 2 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
62.7%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the DUKE 29Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+10
60.6%
Joseph Himon II run for 10 yds to the DUKE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
62.7%
A.J. Henning run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 20Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+2
62.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 2 yds to the DUKE 18Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
61.0%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
69.2%
Jack Olsen 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3434% → 31%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
66.0%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 14Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
66.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
68.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
69.0%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 48 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the NU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:1472% → 71%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
71.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 3 yds to the NU 41Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+7
73.0%
Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 7 yds to the NU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
73.9%
WRIGHT, Mike pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GORDON, Thomas thrown to the DU34, clock 09:34. PENALTY DU Pass Interference on HOWARD, Alex enforced 15 yards to the DU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
74.8%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-2
75.4%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 39Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 12
OPP 39
0
72.9%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
70.6%
Luke Akers punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25MISSED FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 6:2435% → 13%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
65.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 15 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
63.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
61.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
50
+5
59.4%
MURPHY, Maalik pass up the middle incomplete intended for MOORE, Jordan thrown to the NU40, clock 07:29. PENALTY Before the snap, NU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the NU50 to the NU45. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+15
58.3%
MURPHY, Maalik pass up the middle incomplete intended for DALMOLIN, Nicky thrown to the NU36, clock 07:25. PENALTY NU Pass Interference on AZEMA, Coco enforced 15 yards to the NU30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
57.3%
Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joshua Pickett) to the NU 45Similar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+21
62.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 21 yds to the NU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
56.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 5 yds to the NU 19Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+3
58.8%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NU 16Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
57.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
64.9%
Todd Pelino 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
86.9%
Northwestern Penalty, Offensive Holding (Thomas Gordon) to the NU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+3
86.9%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the NU 13Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+4
86.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 4 yds to the NU 17Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+2
85.5%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 19Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+9
84.7%
Luke Akers punt for 45 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 9 yds to the DUKE 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 1:4630% → 57%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
69.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 9 yds to the NU 46Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
64.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+13
64.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Javon Harvey for 13 yds to the NU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
63.5%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the NU 33Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
64.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the NU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
63.6%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Anto Saka for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 23Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+11
65.7%
Star Thomas run for 11 yds to the NU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
63.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+9
63.6%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the NU 3Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 1
OPP 3
-1
66.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 4Similar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+22
42.7%
Todd Pelino 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
57.0%
Mike Wright run for 7 yds to the NU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 29TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
65.6%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the DUKE 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+1
65.6%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the DUKE 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+8
63.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 8 yds to the DUKE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
82.3%
Cam Porter 10 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 30TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
41.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 25 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 31TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 90%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+22
41.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 22 yds to the NU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.0%
Eli Pancol 3 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 32Uncategorized
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0032% → 22%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
31.7%
Cam Porter run for 7 yds to the DUKE 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+6
31.7%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the DUKE 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
31.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Porter for 5 yds to the DUKE 7Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
31.7%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the DUKE 3Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 3
-8
29.0%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 8 yards to the DUKE 11Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 11
0
21.8%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 25 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-41.2
TD · OT 0:00
Eli Pancol 3 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-31.1
FG · Q4 0:14
Todd Pelino 22 yd FG GOOD
-23.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com