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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreAPP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:37 · Jack Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:40: Cade Klubnik run for 2 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 7:08: Phil Mafah run for 83 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:34: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 41 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +3.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:11: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 29 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — APP win probability +0.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:58: Cade Klubnik run for 3 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 11:56APP 4th & 10 at APP 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it15.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.2%average punt
- Q1 8:18APP 4th & 10 at APP 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it14.0%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.4%average punt
- Q1 8:18APP 4th & 10 at APP 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it14.0%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.4%average punt
- Q1 4:25APP 4th & 12 at APP 35, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.7%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.1%average punt
- Q1 1:23APP 4th & 19 at APP 16, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it4.4%−1.610% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q1 0:00APP 4th & 1 at APP 20, down 35Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:17APP 4th & 1 at APP 35, down 42Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:28APP 4th & 15 at CLEM 19, down 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.115% to convertField goalTheir call2.0%77% to makePunt1.7%−0.4average punt
- Q3 9:04CLEM 4th & 26 at CLEM 46, up 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q3 6:25APP 4th & 13 at APP 29, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 3:10CLEM 4th & 4 at APP 5, up 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%40% to convertField goal99.7%−<0.192% to makePunt99.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 1:51CLEM 4th & 9 at APP 19, up 43Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%77% to makePunt99.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:41CLEM 4th & 6 at APP 42, up 46Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%40% to convertField goal99.8%−0.130% to makePunt99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 7:16APP 4th & 6 at APP 46, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:30CLEM 4th & 3 at APP 45, up 46Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%52% to convertField goal99.8%−0.125% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:37CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 46, up 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:46CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.9%97% to makeGo for two84.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:40CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.6%97% to makeGo for two85.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:08CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two88.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:34CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:11CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:58CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:39APP Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.1%97% to makeGo for two5.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:48CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:54CLEM Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:31APP Touchdown, down 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.8%97% to makeGo for two0.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:10CLEM Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0085% → 85%
APPDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 1:4115% → 15%
CLEMDrive 3TD6 plays · 84 yds · 2:0185% → 86%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
85.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 14 yds to the CLEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
85.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 7 yds to the CLEM 37Similar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
85.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 3 yds to the CLEM 47Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+51
85.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 51 yds to the APP 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 1:0814% → 14%
Q1 8:37
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-5
85.8%
PENALTY APP False Start (Shrader,Thomas) 5 yards from APP28 to APP23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
86.0%
Mitchell Lake punt for 61 yds , Antonio Williams returns for no gain to the CLEM 16Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
86.0%
Mitchell Lake punt for 61 yds , Antonio Williams returns for no gain to the CLEM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD5 plays · 92 yds · 0:5986% → 88%
APPDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 2:0011% → 11%
Q1 5:59
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+12
88.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 12 yds to the APP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+14
88.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 14 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+8
89.3%
Mitchell Lake punt for 42 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 8 yds to the CLEM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD5 plays · 69 yds · 1:4089% → 93%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
88.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 3 yds to the CLEM 34Similar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
89.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 5 yds to the CLEM 47Similar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
92.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 41 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 1:006% → 6%
Q1 1:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-15
94.0%
App State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Markell Samuel) to the APP 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9TD2 plays · 44 yds · 0:0694% → 93%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
93.5%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Klubnik,Cade pass incomplete deep middle to Williams,Antonio thrown to APP05 PENALTY APP Pass Interference (Favors,Jordan) 15 yards from APP44 to APP29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
92.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 29 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:585% → 5%
CLEMDrive 11TD6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5393% → 95%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
93.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 6 yds to the APP 24Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+20
93.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 20 yds to the APP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
95.2%
PENALTY CLEM UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Woods,Peter) 15 yards from CLEM35 to CLEM20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD9 plays · 63 yds · 2:053% → 4%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
96.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 15 yds to the CLEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
97.0%
Anderson Castle run for 12 yds to the CLEM 15 for a 1ST down Clemson Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (Sherrod Covil Jr.) to the CLEM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
97.4%
Clemson Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Cade Denhoff) to the CLEM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD10 plays · 71 yds · 3:3994% → 98%
Q2 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+9
95.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 9 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
97.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 6 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+33
97.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 33 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:212% → 2%
APPDrive 15FG7 plays · 12 yds · 1:452% → 2%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
98.2%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Castle,Anderson rush right for 14 yards gain to the CLEM00, End Of Play PENALTY APP Holding (Shrader,Thomas) 10 yards from CLEM14 to CLEM24. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2798% → 99%
Q2 2:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for no gain to the CLEM 29Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
98.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 10 yds to the CLEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
98.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 13 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
98.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 9 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+18
98.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Josh Sapp for 18 yds to the APP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
98.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 5 yds to the APP 16Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-1
99.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 17Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+17
99.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 17 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17FG9 plays · 58 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
98.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for 19 yds to the CLEM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:291% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
99.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 29 yds to the CLEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass complete short left to Robinson,Kaedin caught at CLEM22, for 1 yard to the CLEM20 (Covil Jr.,Sherrod) PENALTY APP Holding (Wilson,Eli) 10 yards from CLEM21 to CLEM31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+14
99.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 14 yds to the CLEM 17Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+17
99.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 17 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 3:2099% → 99%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
99.2%
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Troy Stellato for 24 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.2%
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Adam Randall for 5 yds to the APP 43Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+5
99.2%
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 5 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.2%
Christopher Vizzina run for 3 yds to the APP 41 Christopher Vizzina fumbled, recovered by APP Christopher VizzinaSimilar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 13
OPP 41
-10
99.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Vizzina,Christopher rush middle for 9 yards gain to the APP32 (Sullivan,Caden) PENALTY CLEM Holding (Sadler,Collin) 10 yards from APP41 to CLEM49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 23
OWN 49
-3
99.2%
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Olsen Patt-Henry for 12 yds to the APP 39 Clemson Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the CLEM 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:391% → 0%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
99.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 12 yds to the APP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-7
99.4%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Stephiylan Green for a loss of 7 yards to the APP 29Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 13
OWN 29
+4
99.7%
Mitchell Lake punt for 36 yds , Cole Turner returns for 4 yds to the CLEM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD7 plays · 61 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
CLEMDrive 22FG6 plays · 1 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.7%
Keith Adams Jr. run for 3 yds to the APP 23 Keith Adams Jr. fumbled, recovered by APP Christopher VizzinaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23INT12 plays · 70 yds · 4:350% → 0%
Q3 1:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+21
99.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+11
99.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 11 yds to the CLEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
99.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 9 yds to the CLEM 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+4
99.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 4 yds to the CLEM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete short right to Robinson,Kaedin thrown to CLEM00 broken up by Randall,Austin PENALTY APP Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Wilson,Eli) 5 yards from CLEM11 to CLEM16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+11
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete short left to Jackson,Makai thrown to CLEM06 PENALTY CLEM Pass Interference (Feagin,Tavoy) 11 yard from CLEM16 to CLEM05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24DOWNS8 plays · 57 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
Q4 12:16
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Jay Haynes for 2 yds to the APP 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Ahmani Marshall for 1 yd to the APP 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26DOWNS5 plays · 20 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27INT4 plays · 15 yds · 1:470% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 0:37
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Jack Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 29END OF GAME1 play · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:34
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 41 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
+3.1
TD · Q2 12:58
Cade Klubnik run for 3 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q1 7:08
Phil Mafah run for 83 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
+1.4