2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadDUQ aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreDUQ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:42 · Kyle Romenick punt for 49 yds, downed at the BC 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:20: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Reed Harris for 72 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:28: Khari Johnson 45 Yd Interception Return (Luca Lombardo Kick) — BC win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: DUQ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:59: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for 4 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:31: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 49 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:51: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 30 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 4DUQ made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 13:00BC 4th & 4 at BC 27, tiedClose callPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.2%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:34DUQ 4th & 10 at BC 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it3.0%−<0.130% to convertField goal3.0%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q2 11:30DUQ 4th & 12 at DUQ 33, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 6:19DUQ 4th & 10 at DUQ 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 2:06DUQ 4th & 18 at DUQ 47, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 9:19DUQ 4th & 5 at BC 13, down 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%85% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 2:57DUQ 4th & 4 at DUQ 31, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 0:45BC 4th & 4 at DUQ 37, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.8%−0.140% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:38BC 4th & 3 at DUQ 7, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%46% to convertField goal99.9%−0.191% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 7:42DUQ 4th & 6 at DUQ 24, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:26BC 4th & 2 at BC 35, up 49Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:37DUQ 4th & 12 at DUQ 24, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 8:40BC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:20BC Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:28BC Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:59BC Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:31BC Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:51BC Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:29BC Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:26BC Touchdown, up 55 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5598% → 98%
DUQDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 11:222% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:4598% → 98%
Q1 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+30
97.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 30 yds to the DUQ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
97.5%
Duquesne Penalty, Block below the waist on DAVIS, Carnell enforced (Nell Davis) to the DUQ 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+26
97.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 26 yds to the DUQ 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 4:393% → 3%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.4%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Jermaine Johnson for 1 yd to the DUQ 26Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
97.3%
(06:48) ROMENICK, Kyle punt 38 yards to the BOS32, fair catch by MCGOWAN, Jayden, clock 06:46. PENALTY BOS Running Into the kicker on MCGOWAN, Owen enforced 5 yards from the DUQ30 to the DUQ35 and results in a 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
97.0%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Jermaine Johnson for 6 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5TD5 plays · 94 yds · 2:2997% → 97%
Q1 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+72
97.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Reed Harris for 72 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 6INT TD6 plays · 23 yds · 2:463% → 2%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.1%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Shawn Solomon Jr. for 3 yds to the DUQ 23Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+15
97.1%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Tedy Afful for 15 yds to the DUQ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
96.9%
PERRANTES, Darius pass deep to the right incomplete intended for AFFUL, Tedy broken up by JACKSON, Amari at the BOS30, clock 00:00. PENALTY BOS Offsides on EZEIRUAKU, Donovan enforced 5 yards from the DUQ38 to the DUQ43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
96.8%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Tedy Afful for no gain to the DUQ 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 1:572% → 2%
Q2 11:30
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+12
98.1%
Kyle Romenick punt for 41 yds , Jayden McGowan returns for 12 yds to the BC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8TD7 plays · 62 yds · 3:2498% → 99%
DUQDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:391% → 1%
Q2 6:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.3%
Kyle Romenick punt for 35 yds , Jayden McGowan returns for 7 yds to the BC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10TD2 plays · 53 yds · 0:4199% → 99%
DUQDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 3:231% → 0%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Jermaine Johnson for 4 yds to the DUQ 29Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
99.5%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Tedy Afful for 10 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
99.6%
Duquesne Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Intentional Grounding on PERRANTES, Darius enforced a result of a (Yards) to the DUQ 48Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 18
OWN 47
+4
99.6%
Kyle Romenick punt for 42 yds , Jayden McGowan returns for 4 yds to the BC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12TD5 plays · 85 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
99.5%
(01:38) CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MCGOWAN, Jayden thrown to the DUQ15, clock 01:36. PENALTY DUQ Pass Interference on JONES, T.J. enforced 15 yards to the DUQ36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+30
99.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 30 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:410% → 0%
DUQDrive 14INT3 plays · -3 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q3 14:13
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-1
99.7%
Darius Perrantes pass intercepted Jalen Cheek return for 1 yd to the DUQ 44Similar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
99.7%
(14:04) JONES, Datrell rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the DUQ35 (BARNES, CJ), clock 14:00. PENALTY BOS Holding on CLINE, Kevin enforced 10 yards from the DUQ44 to the BOS46 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15FUMBLE3 plays · -3 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q3 12:32
3RD & 15
OPP 49
-2
99.7%
Jacobe Robinson sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the DUQ 47 Jacobe Robinson fumbled, recovered by DUQ Kevin Kurzinger , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 16MISSED FG8 plays · 40 yds · 3:060% → 0%
Q3 11:05
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+23
99.8%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Tedy Afful for 23 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:41100% → 100%
Q3 8:32
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-2
99.8%
Jacobe Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 27 Jacobe Robinson fumbled, recovered by BC Jacobe Robinson J. Robinson return for 10 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:220% → 0%
BCDrive 19DOWNS13 plays · 50 yds · 6:11100% → 100%
Q3 0:45
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+12
99.9%
Jacobe Robinson pass complete to Luke McLaughlin for 12 yds to the DUQ 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
99.9%
(13:51) RICHARD, Turbo rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the DUQ10 (LENZ, Connor;CARSON, Jaelen), clock 13:47. PENALTY BOS Holding on DAUGHERTY, Eryx enforced 10 yards from the DUQ14 to the DUQ24 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+11
99.9%
Jacobe Robinson pass complete to Matt Ragan for 11 yds to the DUQ 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 3:500% → 0%
Q4 10:01
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+8
100.0%
Jordan Heisey pass complete to Daniel Tarabrella for 8 yds to the DUQ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 3:37
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+6
100.0%
Michael Berarducci punt for 40 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for 6 yds to the BC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23TD5 plays · 58 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 24END OF GAME3 plays · 1 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:28
Khari Johnson 45 Yd Interception Return (Luca Lombardo Kick)
+1.3
TD · Q1 1:20
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Reed Harris for 72 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q2 7:59
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for 4 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
+0.6