2024 · Week 1 · Aug 24, 2024 · Aviva Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreFSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:06 · Ryan Fitzgerald 52 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:13: Jamal Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +8.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Ryan Fitzgerald 59 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:57: Jamal Haynes run for 2 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +24.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:33: Roydell Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +39.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Aidan Birr 44 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +34.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 3:15FSU 4th & 4 at GT 33, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.6%48% to convertField goal69.3%−0.349% to makePunt69.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:17GT 4th & 10 at GT 31, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snapGo for it30.2%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.9%average punt
- Q2 11:06FSU 4th & 6 at GT 34, up 1Close callKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snapGo for it67.4%40% to convertField goalTheir call67.1%−0.347% to makePunt66.7%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:00FSU 4th & 11 at GT 41, down 3Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snapGo for it54.2%−0.827% to convertField goalTheir call53.9%−1.232% to makePunt55.0%average punt
- Q3 12:52GT 4th & 5 at FSU 34, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snapGo for it43.0%42% to convertField goalTheir call42.3%−0.747% to makePunt41.2%−1.8average punt
- Q3 10:39FSU 4th & 6 at GT 44, tiedClose callPunted · 60.6% before the snapGo for it61.0%40% to convertField goal59.0%−2.027% to makePuntTheir call60.8%−0.2average punt
- Q3 9:44GT 4th & 12 at GT 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snapGo for it39.4%−2.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.4%average punt
- Q3 6:19FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snapGo for it55.3%−2.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.4%average punt
- Q4 10:01FSU 4th & 7 at GT 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.4%37% to convertField goal20.7%−1.730% to makePunt21.1%−1.3average punt
- Q4 7:14FSU 4th & 8 at GT 20, down 7Numbers favored field goal by 3.7 ptsWent for it · 20.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.2%−3.732% to convertField goal20.9%75% to makePunt8.1%−12.9average punt
- Q4 0:00GT 4th & 5 at FSU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snapGo for it49.4%−15.241% to convertField goalTheir call64.6%64% to makePunt38.3%−26.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
- Q1 10:58FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick73.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call73.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:26GT Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.8%97% to makeGo for two28.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:13GT Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.3%97% to makeGo for two43.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:57GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.5%97% to makeGo for two65.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:33FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call44.7%−0.197% to makeGo for two44.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFSUDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1972% → 73%
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
27.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Roydell Williams for 12 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
28.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
27.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 28 yds for a TD (B. Courtney Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2TD7 plays · 79 yds · 2:5328% → 31%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+42
28.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 42 yds to the FSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3DOWNS10 plays · 44 yds · 4:0069% → 68%
Q1 5:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+21
31.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 21 yds to the GT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
30.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Malik Benson for 4 yds to the GT 45Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+6
31.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 6 yds to the GT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+2
32.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 2 yds to the GT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3432% → 32%
Q1 2:16
2ND & 16
OWN 25
0
32.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for no gain to the GT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5FG9 plays · 41 yds · 4:4567% → 67%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
32.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 12 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+15
33.8%
Uiagalelei, DJ pass sacked for loss of 8 yards to the FLORIDAST24 (Height, Romello), PENALTY GATECH face mask (Height, Romello) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
32.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Roydell Williams for 15 yds to the GT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
32.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jalen Brown for 1 yd to the GT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6TD15 plays · 75 yds · 7:4833% → 47%
Q2 10:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
33.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 11 yds to the GT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7END OF HALF15 plays · 34 yds · 2:5356% → 60%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 2 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
44.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Malik Benson for 6 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
43.0%
Uiagalelei, DJ pass incomplete to Toafili, Lawrance, PENALTY GATECH pass interference (Brooks, LaMiles) 15 yards to the GATECH40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
41.6%
Uiagalelei, DJ pass incomplete to Lucas, Jaylin, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Washington, Darius) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8MISSED FG6 plays · 41 yds · 1:4543% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0761% → 60%
Q3 11:59
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+15
40.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 15 yds to the GT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4744% → 42%
Q3 9:44
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+3
42.4%
David Shanahan punt for 49 yds , Malik Benson returns for 3 yds to the FSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 3:1459% → 55%
GTDrive 12TD11 plays · 89 yds · 6:1047% → 81%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
46.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Avery Boyd for 14 yds to the GT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
47.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 20 yds to the GT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
50.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
53.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 7 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-9
54.7%
Haynes King run for a loss of 9 yards to the FSU 43 Haynes King fumbled, recovered by GT Keylan RutledgeSimilar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+15
50.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 15 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD16 plays · 84 yds · 8:1030% → 60%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
70.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 14 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
76.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Malik Benson for 10 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
74.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 15 yds to the GT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+20
76.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 20 yds to the GT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+4
73.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Roydell Williams for 4 yds to the GT 21Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+19
80.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Malik Benson for 19 yds to the GT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14END OF GAME17 plays · 49 yds · 6:1855% → 95%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 4 yds to the GT 29Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
53.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 16 yds to the GT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-10
68.5%
Haynes King run for a loss of 10 yards to the FSU 38 Haynes King fumbled, recovered by GT Haynes KingSimilar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 17
OPP 38
+12
60.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 12 yds to the FSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:33
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
-39.5
FG · Q4 0:00
Aidan Birr 44 yd FG GOOD
+34.4
TD · Q4 14:57
Jamal Haynes run for 2 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+24.6