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LOU

Louisville 35 at Stanford 38

STAN
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:16 · Aidan Flintoft punt for 40 yds , Ja'Corey Brooks returns for 3 yds to the LOU 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior−34.6Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:06: Duke Watson run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +8.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:07: Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 13 yds for a TD (A. Daniels Run For Two-point Conversion) — STAN win probability +16.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:37: Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 4 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +15.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:45: Justin Lamson pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 25 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +46.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Emmet Kenney 52 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +30.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 9 of 9LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 14:14STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:16STAN 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:59STAN 4th & 9 at LOU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:23LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 21, down 3
    Close callPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:17LOU 4th & 15 at LOU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:56STAN 4th & 6 at LOU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:25STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:05LOU 4th & 4 at STAN 39, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    83.4%−0.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:24STAN 4th & 8 at LOU 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:12LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:12STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:37STAN 4th & 4 at LOU 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−5.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:13LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:45STAN 4th & 1 at LOU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−8.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−11.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:10LOU 4th & 10 at STAN 45, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.0 ptsWent for it · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.9%−4.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%
    25% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−5.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:12STAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:11LOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:06LOU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:49LOU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:48LOU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:07STAN Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:44LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:37STAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−1.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:45STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−6.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 25 yds · 4:5814% → 17%
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.1%
DANIELS, Ashton pass to the right incomplete intended for AYOMANOR, Elic thrown to the STAN40. PENALTY LOU Offsides on GUERAD, Jordan enforced 5 yards from the STAN25 to the STAN30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-3
14.1%
Cole Tabb run for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 27Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
14.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
14.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 7 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q1 14:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
14.1%
Justin Lamson run for 3 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
14.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
14.1%
DANIELS, Ashton pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to MOSLEY V, Emmett to the STAN44 (THORNTON, Corey). PENALTY LOU Offsides on GILLOTTE, Ashton enforced 5 yards from the STAN39 to the STAN44 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
14.1%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
14.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 8
50
0
14.1%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 8
50
0
14.1%
Cole Tabb run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 8
50
+3
16.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 40 yds , Ja'Corey Brooks returns for 3 yds to the LOU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:2284% → 84%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
16.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the LOU 21Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 2
OWN 21
-1
16.5%
Tyler Shough pass intercepted Gaethan Bernadel return for 1 yd to the LOU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4817% → 18%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
17.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
17.2%
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the LOU 23Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
17.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
17.6%
Emmet Kenney 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2982% → 81%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
17.9%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 14Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+6
18.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 6 yds to the LOU 20Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+1
18.7%
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 21Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
18.9%
Brady Hodges punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
20.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 62 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4680% → 79%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
20.0%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
20.3%
(05:52) SHOUGH, Tyler pass deep up the middle complete for 26 yards to HICKS, Cataurus caught at the STAN38 and advanced to the STAN32 (LEIGBER, Mitch;COOPER, Ernest), clock 05:44. PENALTY LOU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MILLS, Monroe enforced 5 yards from the LOU42 to the LOU37. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
20.9%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 15
OWN 37
0
21.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 15
OWN 37
+3
21.4%
Brady Hodges punt for 38 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for 3 yds to the STAN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:2022% → 22%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-6
21.7%
Emmett Mosley V sacked by Tayon Holloway for a loss of 6 yards to the STAN 22Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 16
OWN 22
+5
22.0%
Cole Tabb run for 5 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
22.1%
Ashton Daniels pass intercepted Corey Thornton return for no gain to the STAN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:2878% → 80%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
21.7%
Keyjuan Brown run for 6 yds to the STAN 37Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+4
21.9%
Keyjuan Brown run for 4 yds to the STAN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
22.0%
Keyjuan Brown run for 3 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+29
22.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 29 yds to the STAN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.5%
Keyjuan Brown run for no gain to the STAN 1Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.1%
Donald Chaney run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9FG
18 plays · 74 yds · 9:0922% → 35%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
21.9%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Dan Foster Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the STAN 16Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+10
22.3%
(00:23) DANIELS, Ashton pass deep to the right intercepted by GRIFFIN, M.J. at the STAN50 intended for AYOMANOR, Elic. Griffin return for 0 yards to the STAN50, End of Play, clock 00:16. PENALTY LOU Holding enforced 10 yards from the STAN16 to the STAN26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
22.7%
Ashton Daniels run for 3 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-10
22.8%
(14:58) TABB, Cole rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the STAN33 (THORNTON, Corey), out of bounds, clock 14:55. PENALTY STAN Holding on DAVIS JR., Chris enforced 10 yards from the STAN29 to the STAN19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+5
22.8%
(14:40) DANIELS, Ashton pass deep to the right intercepted by RILEY, Quincy at the LOU50 intended for MOSLEY V, Emmett. Riley return for 29 yards to the STAN21 (LEYRER, Jack), clock 14:24. PENALTY LOU Offsides on DAWSON, Jared enforced 5 yards from the STAN19 to the STAN24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+28
23.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 28 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
25.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 5 yds to the LOU 43Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+8
25.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 8 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
26.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 1 yd to the LOU 34Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
26.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+14
26.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 14 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
27.7%
Ashton Daniels run for 7 yds to the LOU 13Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 3
OPP 13
0
28.3%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the LOU 13Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+8
28.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 8 yds to the LOU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
29.6%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the LOU 3Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
30.1%
Ashton Daniels run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 6Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
30.8%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the LOU 6Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
34.7%
Emmet Kenney 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4969% → 78%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
31.4%
Duke Watson run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
50
+6
30.1%
Duke Watson run for 6 yds to the STAN 44Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
30.1%
Duke Watson run for 2 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+6
30.8%
Donald Chaney run for 6 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
31.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 17 yds to the STAN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
30.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 14 yds to the STAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.8%
Duke Watson run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 1:3524% → 25%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
23.5%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the STAN 21Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-7
23.2%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Tramel Logan for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 14Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 22
OWN 14
+6
23.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the STAN 20Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+2
22.7%
Cole Tabb run for 2 yds to the STAN 22Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 14
OWN 22
+16
24.7%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 47 yds , Ja'Corey Brooks returns for 16 yds to the LOU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 1:2676% → 81%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
24.1%
Donald Chaney run for 5 yds to the STAN 48Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+16
24.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 16 yds to the STAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
22.9%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+17
23.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 17 yds to the STAN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
22.8%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
22.9%
Keyjuan Brown run for 5 yds to the STAN 10Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
19.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 10 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:4520% → 19%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.4%
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
20.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
20.1%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 11 yds to the STAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
21.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 7 yds to the STAN 47Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-11
22.4%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Rene Konga for a loss of 11 yards to the STAN 36Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+12
19.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 12 yds to the STAN 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:5182% → 81%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
17.7%
Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the LOU 23Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+16
17.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 16 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
16.5%
Duke Watson run for 2 yds to the LOU 41Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+14
16.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 14 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
16.4%
Keyjuan Brown run for 8 yds to the STAN 37Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-5
16.5%
Keyjuan Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 42 Keyjuan Brown fumbled, recovered by LOU Keyjuan Brown K. Brown return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+3
16.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 3 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+2
17.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 2 yds to the STAN 37Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
19.1%
(11:00) DANIELS, Ashton sacked for a loss of 4 yards at the STAN33 (PURYEAR, Ramon), clock 10:55. PENALTY LOU Personal Foul on GUERAD, Jordan enforced 15 yards from the STAN37 to the LOU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1521% → 19%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
21.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 3 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
21.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-1
20.9%
Ashton Daniels sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 46 Ashton Daniels fumbled, recovered by STAN Ashton Daniels , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
18.6%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:0382% → 83%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
17.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for no gain to the LOU 15Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+13
17.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 13 yds to the LOU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
16.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 5 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
15.9%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
15.9%
Donald Chaney run for 1 yd to the LOU 49Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
16.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
17.4%
Carter Schwartz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tiger Bachmeier at the STAN 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5416% → 14%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-6
15.5%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Thor Griffith for a loss of 6 yards to the STAN 2Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 16
OWN 2
+5
15.4%
(06:26) DANIELS, Ashton pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BACHMEIER, Tiger thrown to the LOU41, clock 06:20. PENALTY LOU Offsides on GREEN, Adonijah enforced 5 yards from the STAN2 to the STAN7 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+19
15.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Ismael Cisse for 19 yds to the STAN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
16.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
16.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 4 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
14.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
14.4%
null punt blocked by Tamarion McDonald blocked by Tamarion McDonaldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
8.9%
Duke Watson run for 68 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:349% → 22%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
8.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 7 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+8
7.7%
Cole Tabb run for 8 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
6.6%
(03:39) DANIELS, Ashton sacked for a loss of 3 yards at the STAN32 (KONGA, Rene), clock 03:31. PENALTY LOU Face mask on KONGA, Rene enforced 15 yards from the STAN35 to the STAN50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
50
+13
7.2%
Emmett Mosley V run for 13 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
6.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 4 yds to the LOU 33Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
6.2%
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+8
5.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 8 yds to the LOU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
6.3%
Cole Tabb run for 9 yds to the LOU 13Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
22.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 13 yds for a TD (A. Daniels Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 5:1681% → 96%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
19.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 5 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+7
16.9%
Duke Watson run for 7 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
16.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 3 yds to the LOU 38Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
15.3%
Donald Chaney run for 3 yds to the LOU 41Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+10
15.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 10 yds to the STAN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
14.7%
Donald Chaney run for 5 yds to the STAN 44Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+1
14.4%
Duke Watson run for 1 yd to the STAN 43Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+15
15.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 15 yds to the STAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
13.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 2 yds to the STAN 26Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+21
12.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 21 yds to the STAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
4.4%
Duke Watson run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:054% → 19%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
4.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 55 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
4.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 12 yds to the LOU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
4.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the LOU 6Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
3.9%
Cole Tabb run for 2 yds to the LOU 4Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
3.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 4 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:2287% → 89%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.4%
Duke Watson run for 5 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
11.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 7 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
9.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 1 yd to the LOU 38Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
9.0%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
9.9%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+6
11.2%
Carter Schwartz punt for 44 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for 6 yds to the STAN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:1816% → 58%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
16.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+16
15.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 16 yds to the STAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
17.8%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the STAN 44Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
16.8%
Chris Davis Jr. run for 4 yds to the STAN 48Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+18
17.9%
Ashton Daniels run for 18 yds to the LOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
16.0%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the LOU 34Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
15.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 7 yds to the LOU 27Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
13.9%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the LOU 25Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+25
58.3%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 25 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:2848% → 49%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+23
51.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 23 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
47.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 2
50
+5
43.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 5 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
43.3%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
44.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
47.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
51.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25FG
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:0462% → 96%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
61.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 1 yd to the LOU 46 for a 1ST down Louisville Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tayon Holloway) to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
63.8%
Louisville Penalty, Offsides (Quincy Riley) to the LOU 34Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+52
96.2%
Emmet Kenney 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:45
Justin Lamson pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 25 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
+46.2
FG · Q4 0:00
Emmet Kenney 52 yd FG GOOD
+30.8
TD · Q3 0:07
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 13 yds for a TD (A. Daniels Run For Two-point Conversion)
+16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com