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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:39 · Jack Stonehouse run for 13 yds to the SYR 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:30: Hajj-Malik Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +11.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:12: Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 6 yds for a TD (Jadyn Oh KICK) — SYR win probability +15.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:36: Yasin Willis run for 21 yds for a TD (Jadyn Oh KICK) — SYR win probability +18.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:58: Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 9 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +28.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:23: Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 6 yds for a TD (Jadyn Oh KICK) — SYR win probability +43.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SYR made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 14:05UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snapGo for it65.6%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.7%average punt
- Q1 5:14UNLV 4th & 21 at UNLV 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snapGo for it60.3%−0.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.0%average punt
- Q2 9:00SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 33, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snapGo for it43.8%−1.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.1%average punt
- Q2 6:39SYR 4th & 25 at SYR 22, tiedNumbers favored punt by 2.9 ptsWent for it · 37.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.7%−2.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt37.6%average punt
- Q2 0:07SYR 4th & 3 at UNLV 3, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snapGo for it30.0%44% to convertField goalTheir call29.1%−0.993% to makePunt24.3%−5.7average punt
- Q3 3:24UNLV 4th & 2 at SYR 2, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 31.4% before the snapGo for it31.8%48% to convertField goalTheir call29.3%−2.594% to makePunt18.7%−13.1average punt
- Q3 0:28SYR 4th & 9 at UNLV 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snapGo for it67.0%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.0%average punt
- Q4 10:54SYR 4th & 1 at UNLV 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.2%71% to convertField goal39.9%−8.354% to makePunt36.5%−11.7average punt
- Q4 1:04SYR 4th & 1 at UNLV 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.3%71% to convertField goal7.3%−7.968% to makePunt4.4%−10.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 8:43SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.4%97% to makeGo for two36.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:44SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.8%97% to makeGo for two45.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:17UNLV Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.7%97% to makeGo for two55.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:30UNLV Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.4%97% to makeGo for two61.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:57UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.5%97% to makeGo for two70.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:12SYR Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.1%97% to makeGo for two46.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 8:36SYR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.2%97% to makeGo for two63.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:58UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.0%97% to makeGo for two85.1%−1.945% to convert
- Q4 0:23SYR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.1%97% to makeGo for two39.0%−2.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNLVDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4761% → 61%
Q1 14:05
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
60.8%
Marshall Nichols punt for 49 yds , Trebor Pena returns for no gain to the SYR 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2TD9 plays · 75 yds · 5:1239% → 43%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 5 yds to the SYR 30Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
60.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 5 yds to the SYR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+31
60.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 31 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
60.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 5 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+11
60.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 11 yds to the UNLV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
60.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 7 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
57.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 9 yds for a TD (Jadyn Oh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 21 yds · 3:1858% → 56%
Q1 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
58.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 16 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+5
58.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the SYR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
58.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the SYR 38Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-15
58.4%
(06:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Thomas,Jai'Den rush middle for 10 yards gain to the SYR28 (Bellamy,Jayden; Clark,Alijah) PENALTY UNLV UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cain,Casey) 15 yards from SYR38 to UNLV47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 21
OWN 46
0
55.9%
Marshall Nichols punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the SYR 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4TD10 plays · 87 yds · 4:2844% → 53%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
56.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 8 yds to the SYR 21Similar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
55.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 39 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
54.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 6 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+5
53.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 5 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+10
52.1%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun McCord,Kyle pass incomplete short middle to Gadsden II,Oronde thrown to UNLV00 PENALTY UNLV Pass Interference (Baldwin,Johnathan) 10 yards from UNLV13 to UNLV03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1848% → 55%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
48.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 4 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+8
48.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 8 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+47
49.2%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 42 yds to the SYR 10 for a 1ST down Syracuse Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (Isaiah Hastings) to the SYR 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
55.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 3:0348% → 49%
UNLVDrive 7TD2 plays · 56 yds · 0:1952% → 63%
SYRDrive 8DOWNS9 plays · -16 yds · 1:4042% → 41%
Q2 7:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
55.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 5 yds to the SYR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
56.3%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Allen,LeQuint rush left for 1 yard gain to the SYR38 (Powell,Mani) PENALTY SYR Holding (Reed,J'Onre) 10 yards from SYR37 to SYR27. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9TD2 plays · 9 yds · 0:3463% → 71%
SYRDrive 10FG21 plays · 72 yds · 5:3832% → 34%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
68.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 10 yds to the SYR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
67.7%
(05:31) Shotgun McCord,Kyle pass complete short left to Pena,Trebor caught at SYR50, for 22 yards to the UNLV43 (Baldwin,Johnathan) PENALTY SYR Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Reed,J'Onre) 5 yards from SYR35 to SYR30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
67.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 7 yds to the SYR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+15
68.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 15 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
65.4%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun McCord,Kyle pass incomplete deep right to Hatcher,Umari thrown to UNLV00 PENALTY UNLV Offside (Doyle Jr.,Antonio) 5 yards from UNLV22 to UNLV17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+5
67.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 5 yds to the UNLV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
65.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 7 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · 21 yds · 0:0367% → 69%
SYRDrive 12TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4035% → 54%
Q3 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
64.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for no gain to the SYR 26Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
65.8%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun McCord,Kyle pass incomplete deep right to Gill Jr.,Darrell thrown to UNLV38 PENALTY UNLV Pass Interference (Grimes,Tony) 15 yards from SYR26 to SYR41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+7
61.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 7 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+7
61.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 7 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
46.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 6 yds for a TD (Jadyn Oh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:1851% → 52%
SYRDrive 14TD1 play · 21 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15FG13 plays · 73 yds · 5:0634% → 40%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
34.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 11 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
35.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 13 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
36.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 8 yds to the SYR 43Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+16
36.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 16 yds to the SYR 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+3
36.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 3 yds to the SYR 20Similar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
35.6%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,Hajj-Malik pass incomplete short right to White III,Ricky thrown to SYR03, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SYR Pass Interference (Lewis,Clarence) 11 yard from SYR15 to SYR04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16PUNT TD9 plays · 26 yds · 2:5267% → 41%
Q3 2:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+25
34.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
29.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Yasin Willis for no gain to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
55.3%
Jack Stonehouse punt blocked by Ricky White III blocked by Ricky White III for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
59.2%
PENALTY UNLV UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bradley,Jaden) 15 yards from UNLV35 to UNLV20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17INT16 plays · 68 yds · 6:5546% → 52%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
53.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 4 yds to the SYR 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
52.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 5 yds to the SYR 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-5
51.4%
PENALTY SYR Illegal Substitution 5 yards from SYR40 to SYR35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+15
54.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCord,Kyle sacked for loss of 7 yards to the SYR28 (Camac,Fisher) PENALTY UNLV Face Mask (Whitmore,Alexander) 15 yards from SYR35 to SYR50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+15
53.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 15 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+10
49.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 10 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+8
46.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 8 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
48.2%
Kyle McCord pass intercepted Jackson Woodard return for no gain to the UNLV 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18TD10 plays · 94 yds · 5:0257% → 94%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
57.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 5 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+12
55.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 12 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
58.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 17 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
64.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Casey Cain for 6 yds to the SYR 37Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+14
64.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 14 yds to the SYR 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 9 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19TD15 plays · 75 yds · 2:2612% → 56%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
87.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 17 yds to the SYR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
85.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 7 yds to the SYR 49Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+18
85.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 18 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+9
85.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 9 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
83.7%
PENALTY UNLV UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Powell,Mani) 6 yards from UNLV13 to UNLV07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
83.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 1 yd to the UNLV 6Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
44.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 6 yds for a TD (Jadyn Oh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20END OF GAME2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-59.4
TD · Q4 0:23
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 6 yds for a TD (Jadyn Oh KICK)
-43.1
TD · Q4 2:58
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ricky White III for 9 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
+28.5