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CAL

California 46 at Wake Forest 36

WAKE
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2024 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:49 · Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior−19.0Home team on offense−1.8Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:52: Ivan Mora punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 24 — WAKE win probability +11.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:39: Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted by Nohl Williams, at the CAL 0, touchback. — WAKE win probability +11.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:30: Lachlan Wilson punt for 47 yds for a 1ST down , Taylor Morin returns for 4 yds to the WAKE 49 for a 1ST down — CAL win probability +13.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:16: Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 17 — CAL win probability +46.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:38: Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted — WAKE win probability +73.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:03CAL 4th & 11 at WAKE 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:49WAKE 4th & 13 at WAKE 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:35CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:23WAKE 4th & 11 at WAKE 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:31WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:21CAL 4th & 6 at WAKE 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:59WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:59CAL 4th & 2 at WAKE 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−1.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:50WAKE 4th & 1 at CAL 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−2.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:52WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00WAKE 4th & 5 at CAL 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:57CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:30CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−3.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:38WAKE 4th & 18 at CAL 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−3.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:39CAL 4th & 14 at WAKE 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%
    42% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−3.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:39WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 25, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 5.4 ptsWent for it · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.0%−5.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:16CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 41, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.1 ptsPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%−5.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:54CAL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:49WAKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 5:0671% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 4 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
29.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 16 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
29.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete deep left to Brady,Jonathan thrown to Wake15 PENALTY Wake Pass Interference (Stevenson,Zamari) 15 yards from Cal45 to Wake40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
29.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 11 yds to the WAKE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
29.0%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the WAKE 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
29.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jonathan BradySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+13
29.0%
Fernando Mendoza run for 13 yds to the WAKE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
29.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+10
29.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 10 yds to the WAKE 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
29.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the WAKE 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
29.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the WAKE 4Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
29.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 3 yds to the WAKE 1Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
29.0%
Ott,Jaydn rush left for 1 yard gain to the Wake00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY Cal Holding (Johnson,Jeffrey) 10 yards from Wake01 to Wake11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
30.9%
Derek Morris 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
29.5%
Miles Williams 16 Yd Fumble Return (Derek Morris Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:0530% → 29%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
29.5%
Demond Claiborne run for 13 yds to the WAKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
29.6%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the WAKE 41Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
29.7%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the WAKE 43Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-8
29.6%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by David Reese for a loss of 8 yards to the WAKE 35Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
29.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+25
29.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 25 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
28.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 9
50
+2
28.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the WAKE 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4INT TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:2531% → 34%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
30.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 19 yds to the CAL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
30.6%
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the CAL 7Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+5
30.6%
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the CAL 2Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
30.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the CAL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5TD
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:1467% → 71%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Kyion Grayes for 6 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
32.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Kyion Grayes for 16 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
32.3%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Zach Lohavichan for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 44Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+3
32.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 3 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
32.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
29.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:1228% → 28%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
28.4%
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the WAKE 25Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
28.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-6
28.2%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Xavier Carlton for a loss of 6 yards to the WAKE 19Similar
Q1 0:23
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
27.6%
Ivan Mora punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT TD
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:5772% → 72%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
28.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+19
28.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 19 yds to the WAKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
28.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 16 yds to the WAKE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
28.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the WAKE 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+6
28.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 6 yds to the WAKE 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+8
28.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 8 yds to the WAKE 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
28.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 11 yds for a TD (Derek Morris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 0:5528% → 34%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
28.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Deuce AlexanderSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 2 yds to the WAKE 27Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
33.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 3:1066% → 65%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
33.9%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the CAL 37Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
33.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 9 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
33.2%
Jaivian Thomas run for 2 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+16
33.2%
Jaivian Thomas run for 16 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
32.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 12 yds to the WAKE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
32.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 5 yds to the WAKE 19Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+1
32.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the WAKE 20Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
32.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Nyziah HunterSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
34.9%
Derek Morris 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10FG
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:2236% → 38%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
35.5%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Ryan McCulloch for a loss of 3 yards to the WAKE 22Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
35.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+6
34.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 6 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
38.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 40 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 4 yds to the CAL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:0064% → 63%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
36.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Chandler Rogers for 3 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+9
35.5%
Mikey Matthews run for 9 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
35.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 12 yds to the WAKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
34.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 8 yds to the WAKE 32Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
34.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
34.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 2
OPP 32
0
36.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Josiah MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12DOWNS TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:0941% → 43%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
41.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 15 yds to the WAKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
42.8%
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the CAL 49Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
43.2%
Hank Bachmeier run for no gain to the CAL 49Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+5
42.4%
Hank Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+44
42.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 44 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:2062% → 67%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
37.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 8 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+14
36.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 14 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
36.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 20 yds to the WAKE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
35.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 4 yds to the WAKE 19Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+17
33.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 17 yds to the WAKE 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 0:3842% → 55%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
42.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 11 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
43.1%
Wake Forest Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Hank Bachmeier) to the WAKE 28Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+2
41.5%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the WAKE 30Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+13
40.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Harry Lodge for 13 yds to the WAKE 43Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
54.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:5243% → 45%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
56.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 12 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
55.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 4 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
56.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 8 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
55.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 7 yds to the WAKE 45Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+9
53.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 9 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
53.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Corey DychesSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+54
54.6%
Ryan Coe 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16FG
13 plays · 40 yds · 3:2156% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.2%
Demond Claiborne run for 11 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Demond ClaiborneSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
56.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+10
55.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete short right to Hite,Cameron thrown to Wake42 QB hurried by Bollers,T.J. PENALTY Cal Holding (Littlejohn,Matthew) 10 yards from Wake36 to Wake46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
58.5%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the WAKE 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+1
58.4%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the WAKE 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+15
57.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete deep middle to Fields,Horatio thrown to Cal20 QB hurried by Fall,Cheikhsaliou PENALTY Cal Pass Interference 15 yards from Wake49 to Cal36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
58.8%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Xavier Carlton for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+2
58.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+5
57.5%
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+8
56.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 8 yds to the CAL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
67.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted by Nohl Williams, at the CAL 0, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17INT
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:4236% → 31%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
64.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 15 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
63.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+11
64.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jordan King for 11 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
62.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
62.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jordan King for 4 yds to the CAL 49Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
63.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
63.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+14
69.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 47 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 14 yds to the WAKE 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:1468% → 72%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
68.1%
Tate Carney run for no gain to the WAKE 22Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
67.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 10 yds to the WAKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
68.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 23 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
71.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Donavon Greene for 45 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:1331% → 43%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 6 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
67.9%
PENALTY Cal False Start (Morrow,Nick) 5 yards from Cal31 to Cal26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
68.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-3
70.0%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Justin Cody for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 23Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+4
56.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 47 yds for a 1ST down , Taylor Morin returns for 4 yds to the WAKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 2:5258% → 54%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
58.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 9
50
+1
58.4%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the WAKE 49Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+11
55.3%
Hank Bachmeier run for 11 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
59.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete deep middle to Alexander,Deuce thrown to Cal00 broken up by Sidney,Cam PENALTY Cal Pass Interference (Sidney,Cam) 15 yards from Cal40 to Cal25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
60.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Deuce AlexanderSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
59.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the CAL 20Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-13
58.5%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Hunter Barth for a loss of 13 yards to the CAL 33Similar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 18
OPP 33
+31
54.2%
Matthew Dennis 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Xavier Carlton. Recovered by Cal Nohl Williams at Cal36. Nohl Williams return 31 yards to the Wake33.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21MISSED FG TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2050% → 49%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
50.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for 17 yds to the WAKE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
49.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 5 yds to the WAKE 11Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
49.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jaivian ThomasSimilar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+7
51.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 7 yds to the WAKE 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
49.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the WAKE 5Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
50.8%
Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds for a TD (Derek Morris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22TD
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:2858% → 70%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
58.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Harry LodgeSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+11
57.6%
Hank Bachmeier run for 11 yds to the WAKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
58.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 5 yds to the WAKE 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+16
59.8%
Demond Claiborne run for 16 yds to the WAKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
61.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 3 yds to the CAL 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+14
62.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 14 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
63.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+3
63.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+18
62.1%
Demond Claiborne run for 18 yds to the CAL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
63.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the CAL 4Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.2%
Hank Bachmeier 4 Yd Run (Hank Bachmeier Pass to Harry Lodge for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 5:0138% → 33%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
62.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jordan King for 8 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+11
58.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 11 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
59.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 16 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
56.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 5 yds to the WAKE 38Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
55.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 6 yds to the WAKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
54.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the WAKE 38Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 16
OPP 38
-9
59.3%
Fernando Mendoza sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the WAKE 47Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 25
OPP 47
+11
64.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 11 yds to the WAKE 36Similar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 14
OPP 36
+54
67.3%
Ryan Coe 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24FG TD
14 plays · 42 yds · 2:4273% → 85%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Deuce AlexanderSimilar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
70.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Demond ClaiborneSimilar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+18
69.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 18 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
75.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
74.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 3
50
+10
75.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 10 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
76.6%
Tate Carney run for 6 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
78.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Tate CarneySimilar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+8
76.5%
Hank Bachmeier run for 8 yds to the CAL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
78.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete short left to Alexander,Deuce thrown to Cal21 broken up by Barth,Hunter PENALTY Cal Roughing The Passer (McCulloch,Ryan) 13 yards from Cal26 to Cal13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
78.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tate Carney for 11 yds to the CAL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.6%
Tate Carney run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4133% → 82%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
67.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
64.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
64.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
17.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26PUNT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
29.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 10 yds to the WAKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27INT TD
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:4491% → 94%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
9.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the WAKE 40Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+24
8.5%
Fernando Mendoza run for 24 yds to the WAKE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
8.2%
Fernando Mendoza run for 3 yds to the WAKE 13Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
6.7%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the WAKE 11Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
6.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for 11 yds for a TD (Derek Morris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:3222% → 94%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
21.7%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by David Reese for a loss of 8 yards to the WAKE 17Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
20.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Horatio FieldsSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
93.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 29INT
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
63.2%
Kneel down by California at Wake36 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:38
Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted
+73
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-63.2
TD · Q4 2:16
Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 17
-46.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com