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LOU

Louisville 31 at Boston College 27

BC
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2024 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:23 · Carter Schwartz punt for 21 yds, downed at the BC 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense−27.8Pregame prior−0.3Garbage-time factor−11.7Score differential−4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:17: Isaac Brown run for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +16.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:58: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 6 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +14.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:50: Tyler Shough pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +16.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:57: Isaac Brown run for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +21.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 7:12: Tyler Shough pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 6 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +35.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 14:09BC 4th & 17 at BC 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:37LOU 4th & 2 at BC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:31BC 4th & 11 at BC 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:26BC 4th & 1 at BC 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:50LOU 4th & 17 at LOU 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:25BC 4th & 14 at BC 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:55LOU 4th & 9 at BC 39, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.5%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:24BC 4th & 4 at LOU 4, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:42LOU 4th & 5 at BC 6, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:22BC 4th & 1 at BC 30, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:46LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 36, down 10
    Close callPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:42BC 4th & 11 at BC 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:03BC 4th & 2 at BC 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:25BC 4th & 5 at BC 30, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:53BC 4th & 11 at LOU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−0.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−5.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:23LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:06BC 4th & 10 at LOU 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−6.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−7.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 7:26BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:24BC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:30BC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:17LOU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:58BC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:50LOU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:57LOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:12LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:4638% → 38%
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
37.5%
Lewis Bond run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 23Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:11
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-5
37.7%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 18Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
37.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:09
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
37.7%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 32 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2062% → 62%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
50
+2
37.7%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
37.9%
Isaac Brown run for 6 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
38.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
38.2%
Tyler Shough run for 1 yd to the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5839% → 39%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
38.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
38.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for no gain to the BC 45Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
38.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 6
OWN 45
-5
38.7%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 40Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
38.6%
punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ahmari Huggins-Bruce at the LOU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4INT
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:2361% → 61%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
38.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+11
38.7%
Tyler Shough run for 11 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
38.6%
(10:36) SHOUGH, Tyler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for REDMAN, Mark thrown to the BC35, clock 10:34. PENALTY BC Pass Interference on CROUCH, Daveon enforced 15 yards to the BC38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
38.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 12 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
38.6%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 4:2340% → 46%
Q1 8:37
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+2
40.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
40.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for no gain to the BC 46Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+54
43.1%
Kamari Morales 54 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Liam Connor Kick)Similar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
46.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the BC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2956% → 54%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
43.6%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
43.8%
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 31Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-3
44.5%
Tyler Shough run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 28Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 12
OWN 28
-5
45.5%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (Antonio Watts) to the LOU 23Similar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 17
OWN 23
0
45.6%
Brady Hodges punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1946% → 45%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
45.5%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 44Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-3
45.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 41Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 14
OWN 41
0
45.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
45.1%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 42 yds , Ahmari Huggins-Bruce returns for no gain to the LOU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 4:1954% → 50%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
46.2%
Donald Chaney run for 6 yds to the LOU 23Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+3
46.4%
Donald Chaney run for 3 yds to the LOU 26Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
47.0%
Donald Chaney run for 3 yds to the LOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
47.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Kris Hughes for 10 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
47.0%
Donald Chaney run for 4 yds to the LOU 43Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
47.6%
Duke Watson run for 2 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+15
47.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Kris Hughes for 15 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
47.7%
(00:43) SHOUGH, Tyler pass deep to the right complete for 39 yards to BROOKS, Ja'Corey caught at the BC5 and advanced to the BC1 (MCGOWAN, Owen), clock 00:35. PENALTY LOU Holding enforced 10 yards from the BC40 to the LOU50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 20
50
0
48.6%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 20
50
-1
48.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 49Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 21
OWN 49
+12
49.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 12 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+56
49.9%
Brock Travelstead 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:2850% → 61%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+25
50.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 25 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
50.8%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LOU 41Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+1
50.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the LOU 40Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+18
51.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 18 yds to the LOU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
52.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 9 yds to the LOU 13Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 1
OPP 13
0
52.7%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the LOU 13Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+3
52.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the LOU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
53.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 2 yds to the LOU 8Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
54.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
53.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
52.6%
Louisville Penalty, Offsides (Quincy Riley) to the LOU 4Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
61.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 4 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:2441% → 41%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.9%
Isaac Brown run for 6 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
59.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 15 yds Ahmari Huggins-Bruce fumbled, recovered by BC Quintayvious Hutchins Q. Hutchins return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:1663% → 79%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
63.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the LOU 43Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
63.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+11
64.1%
Lewis Bond run for 11 yds to the LOU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
63.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the LOU 22Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+16
64.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 16 yds to the LOU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
65.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the LOU 4Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds for a TD (Liam Connor PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 5:0721% → 37%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
79.0%
Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the LOU 32Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+7
78.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 7 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
79.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 5 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
79.6%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+8
80.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 8 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+26
80.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 26 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
80.8%
Donald Chaney run for 1 yd to the BC 19Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+15
81.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 15 yds to the BC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.7%
Isaac Brown run for no gain to the BC 4Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.9%
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:0370% → 70%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
70.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
70.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:0330% → 32%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 11
OWN 25
+17
70.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 17 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
69.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 16 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
69.3%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
69.5%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+15
69.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 15 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
68.4%
Duke Watson run for 6 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+7
69.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Kris Hughes for 7 yds to the BC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
69.9%
Duke Watson run for 4 yds to the BC 7Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
70.3%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+1
72.9%
Tyler Shough run for 1 yd to the BC 6Similar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
67.9%
Brock Travelstead 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 2:3770% → 89%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
70.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
70.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+59
70.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 59 yds to the LOU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
74.2%
Johnathan Montague Jr. run for 4 yds to the LOU 6Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 6 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 4:0316% → 29%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
84.4%
Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the LOU 25Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+4
85.3%
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the LOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
86.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 8 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
86.1%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
86.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 6 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+4
86.9%
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
50
+44
87.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 44 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
86.8%
Duke Watson run for 2 ydsSimilar
Q3 3:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:1177% → 80%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
76.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+1
77.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the BC 14Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+7
76.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
78.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the BC 22Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+3
79.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
79.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:35
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+5
78.1%
(00:35) ZIVENKO, Ivan punt 30 yards to the LOU45, HUGGINS-BRUCE, Ahmari returned 11 yards to the BC44 (WILLIAMS, Jalon), clock 00:22. PENALTY LOU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the BC25 to the BC30 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
79.5%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ahmari Huggins-Bruce at the LOU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3020% → 19%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
80.0%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
80.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 7 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
79.7%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
81.2%
Carter Schwartz punt for 45 yds, downed at the BC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0081% → 81%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
81.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+2
81.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 4
OWN 25
-7
81.3%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Jared Dawson for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 18Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
81.2%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:4122% → 44%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
78.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 11 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
77.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+10
77.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 10 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
56.2%
Isaac Brown run for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5268% → 68%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 8 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
70.4%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the BC 33Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
69.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for no gain to the BC 33Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
67.5%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:4837% → 79%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
62.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 34 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
56.7%
Isaac Brown run for 15 yds to the BC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
56.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 8 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
21.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 6 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4136% → 31%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
35.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
34.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 30Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
31.1%
Sam Candotti punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ahmari Huggins-Bruce at the LOU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:2875% → 77%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 5 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
22.1%
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 31Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-10
23.0%
(03:57) SHOUGH, Tyler pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to BELL, Chris caught at the LOU34 and advanced to the LOU36 (MCSHANE, Ashton), clock 03:50. PENALTY LOU Holding on CALLOWAY, Jimmy enforced 10 yards from the LOU31 to the LOU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4737% → 27%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
36.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+5
36.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
37.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
37.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 40Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
30.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
26.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:2391% → 89%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
9.4%
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 41Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
8.6%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
8.6%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
11.0%
Carter Schwartz punt for 21 yds, downed at the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 23 yds · 1:1722% → 15%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
21.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 4 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
21.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
18.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for 3 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
19.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds to the LOU 47Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
25.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
18.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
18.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
17.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
16.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
14.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:12
Tyler Shough pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 6 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-35.7
TD · Q4 10:57
Isaac Brown run for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-21.4
TD · Q2 1:17
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com