2024 · Week 9 · Oct 24, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:55 · Jadyn Oh 48 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:47: Kyle McCord pass intercepted Rasheem Biles return for 35 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +0.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 6:23: Kyle McCord pass intercepted Kyle Louis return for 59 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +4.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:30: Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 20 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +5.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:12: Kyle McCord pass intercepted Braylan Lovelace return for 33 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +5.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:22: Kyle McCord run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SYR win probability +1.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SYR made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 13:43PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snapGo for it64.0%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.0%average punt
- Q1 8:28PITT 4th & 8 at SYR 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snapGo for it66.1%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call66.1%54% to makePunt65.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:07SYR 4th & 5 at PITT 45, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.8%41% to convertField goal24.2%−1.625% to makePunt25.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 14:51SYR 4th & 6 at PITT 35, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.5%40% to convertField goal23.9%−0.645% to makePunt23.0%−1.4average punt
- Q2 11:25SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 29, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snapGo for it14.9%−0.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.2%average punt
- Q2 8:29PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 48, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snapGo for it87.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.0%average punt
- Q2 2:11SYR 4th & 28 at midfield, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it8.0%−1.07% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.0%average punt
- Q2 1:23PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 18, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snapGo for it90.8%−0.638% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.4%average punt
- Q3 12:55SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 36, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:00SYR 4th & 3 at PITT 36, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%53% to convertField goal1.1%−0.142% to makePunt1.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:14SYR 4th & 1 at PITT 4, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%65% to convertField goal1.2%−0.293% to makePunt0.7%−0.6average punt
- Q3 2:59PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 43, up 25Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it99.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:50SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 29, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 11:13PITT 4th & 15 at SYR 39, up 32Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.117% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−<0.136% to makePunt99.8%average punt
- Q4 9:48SYR 4th & 2 at PITT 30, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%57% to convertField goal0.1%−0.156% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:15SYR 4th & 11 at PITT 25, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.125% to convertField goal0.1%66% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:58PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 24, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 1:55SYR 4th & 26 at PITT 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.17% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%56% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SYR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 12:47PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.7%97% to makeGo for two64.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:23PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.7%97% to makeGo for two69.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:30PITT Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.5%97% to makeGo for two84.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:12PITT Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:22SYR Touchdown, down 25 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick2.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call2.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:54PITT Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:23SYR Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPITTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1265% → 64%
Q1 13:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
64.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 51 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 2 yds to the SYR 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2INT TD4 plays · 10 yds · 0:5036% → 35%
SYRDrive 3INT6 plays · 10 yds · 1:4335% → 34%
Q1 10:42
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
65.7%
Kyle McCord pass intercepted Brandon George return for no gain to the SYR 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4FG6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4766% → 67%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
66.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for a loss of 3 yards to the SYR 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5INT TD8 plays · 24 yds · 1:3534% → 28%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 2 yds to the SYR 27Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+24
66.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 24 yds to the PITT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 12
OWN 49
-59
71.6%
Kyle McCord pass intercepted Kyle Louis return for 59 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6DOWNS16 plays · 40 yds · 6:0728% → 24%
Q1 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
72.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 7 yds to the SYR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
73.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Yasin Willis for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
50
-10
73.4%
McCord, Kyle pass complete to Pena, Trebor for 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH35, PENALTY SYRACUSE holding 10 yards to the SYRACUSE40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+4
74.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 4 yds to the SYR 44Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 21
OWN 39
+16
74.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 16 yds to the PITT 45Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+6
75.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 6 yds to the PITT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
75.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 4 yds to the PITT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD7 plays · 65 yds · 1:5579% → 86%
Q2 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+19
79.8%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the SYR 47 for a 1ST down Syracuse Penalty, Personal Foul (Chase Simmons) to the SYR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
86.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 20 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8FUMBLE5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0015% → 15%
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 4 yds to the SYR 29Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
85.5%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 43 yds , Desmond Reid returns for 1 yd to the PITT 28 Desmond Reid fumbled, recovered by PITT Ryland Gandy , return for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3787% → 89%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
86.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 7 yds to the PITT 35Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-6
87.4%
Eli Holstein sacked by Marlowe Wax for a loss of 6 yards to the PITT 29Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+15
87.4%
Holstein, Eli pass pass intended for Reynolds, Daejon intercepted by Barnes Jr., Marcellus at the SYRACUSE49, Barnes Jr., Marcellus return 14 yards to the PITTSBURGH37, PENALTY SYRACUSE roughing passer (Wax, Marlowe) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
88.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 2 yds to the PITT 46Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
88.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the SYR 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10PUNT17 plays · 35 yds · 6:0812% → 9%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
87.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 5 yds to the SYR 20Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+8
88.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 8 yds to the SYR 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
87.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Umari Hatcher for no gain to the SYR 28Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
88.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emanuel Ross for 15 yds to the SYR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
88.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Dan Villari for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 3
50
+5
88.3%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Defensive Offside (Chief Borders) to the PITT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
89.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 6 yds to the PITT 39Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 13
OPP 35
-15
89.9%
Kyle McCord sacked by Rasheem Biles for a loss of 15 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 28
50
0
90.6%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Desmond Reid at the PITT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:3793% → 93%
Q2 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-8
93.0%
Holstein, Eli rush for 4 yards to the PITTSBURGH20, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding 8 yards to the PITTSBURGH8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 16
OWN 8
+10
92.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the PITT 18Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+3
93.0%
Caleb Junko punt for 47 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 3 yds to the SYR 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-33
98.2%
Kyle McCord pass intercepted Braylan Lovelace return for 33 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13END OF HALF4 plays · -20 yds · 0:592% → 2%
SYRDrive 14TD22 plays · 73 yds · 9:182% → 3%
Q3 13:36
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+3
98.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 3 yds to the SYR 36Similar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
98.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 20 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
98.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 7 yds to the PITT 36Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+4
98.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 4 yds to the PITT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
98.7%
Willis, Yasin rush for 1 yard to the PITTSBURGH31, PENALTY SYRACUSE holding (Clement, David) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 20
OPP 42
+29
98.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 29 yds to the PITT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
99.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 5 yds to the PITT 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 6 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
98.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 5 yds to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+8
99.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 8 yds to the PITT 43Similar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
99.2%
Caleb Junko punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the SYR 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16INT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:472% → 1%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
98.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 15 yds to the SYR 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
98.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for no gain to the SYR 31Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
98.9%
Kyle McCord pass intercepted Phillip O'Brien Jr. return for no gain to the SYR 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD3 plays · 45 yds · 0:3199% → 100%
SYRDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 13:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 39 yds , Desmond Reid returns for no gain to the PITT 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19FG7 plays · 29 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
99.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 21 yds to the SYR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
99.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Nate Yarnell for a loss of 6 yards to the SYR 40Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+1
99.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Censere Lee for 1 yd to the SYR 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:210% → 0%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emanuel Ross for 37 yds to the PITT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emanuel Ross for 8 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+6
99.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Yasin Willis for 6 yds to the PITT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
99.9%
Kyle McCord sacked by Sincere Edwards for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 25Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+21
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Dan Villari for 21 yds to the PITT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q4 5:58
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Caleb Junko punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the SYR 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22MISSED FG12 plays · 38 yds · 3:440% → 0%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jaylan Hornsby for 9 yds to the SYR 41Similar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emanuel Ross for 13 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Yasin Willis for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 46Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+5
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emanuel Ross for 5 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+12
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Dan Villari for 12 yds to the PITT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+15
99.9%
McCord, Kyle pass incomplete to Ross, Emanuel, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jaden Hart for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 15Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 11
OPP 15
-15
99.9%
Kyle McCord sacked by TEAM for a loss of 15 yards to the PITT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23END OF GAME5 plays · 39 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Tyreek Robinson for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
100.0%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Jake Overman for 4 yds to the SYR 42Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+17
100.0%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Jake Overman for 17 yds to the SYR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
100.0%
Nate Yarnell sacked by Josh Kubala for a loss of 6 yards to the SYR 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:30
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 20 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q2 1:12
Kyle McCord pass intercepted Braylan Lovelace return for 33 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q1 6:23
Kyle McCord pass intercepted Kyle Louis return for 59 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
+4.2