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FSU

Florida State 16 at Duke 23

DUKE
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2024 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:51 · Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 15 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Home team on offense+16.7Pregame prior+0.2Garbage-time factor+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score differential+3.0Time remaining+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:38: Brock Glenn pass intercepted Chandler Rivers return for 36 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +4.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:43: Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +7.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:32: Todd Pelino 44 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +4.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:35: Ryan Fitzgerald 38 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:58: Todd Pelino 39 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +10.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 11 of 13FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 13:25DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:20FSU 4th & 3 at DUKE 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:37DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:33FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 29, up 3
    Close callPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:58DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:00FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 26, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:11FSU 4th & 13 at DUKE 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q1 2:55DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:43DUKE 4th & 1 at FSU 2, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.4%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    60.0%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−5.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:00DUKE 4th & 9 at FSU 10, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−5.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:17FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:18DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:46FSU 4th & 19 at DUKE 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:38DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:32DUKE 4th & 12 at FSU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−7.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:04FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 38, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:34DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:26FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 39, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−1.4
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:29DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 26, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:35FSU 4th & 13 at DUKE 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−4.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−10.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:58DUKE 4th & 11 at FSU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−3.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−15.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:49DUKE 4th & 18 at DUKE 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−3.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:51FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−3.5
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:00FSU 4th & 24 at FSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:38DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:43DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3157% → 57%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
57.4%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 24Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+1
57.4%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 25Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+1
57.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jake Taylor for 1 yd to the DUKE 26Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
57.4%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2FG
6 plays · 46 yds · 3:0043% → 43%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
57.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 12 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+27
57.3%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 27 yds to the DUKE 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
57.1%
Kam Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 14Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+5
57.1%
Kam Davis run for 5 yds to the DUKE 9Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+4
57.1%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 4 yds to the DUKE 5Similar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
57.0%
Ryan Fitzgerald 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4357% → 56%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Javon Harvey for 6 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
57.5%
(09:46) JONES, Peyton rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the DUKE35 (CRYER, Justin;FARMER, Joshua), clock 09:42. PENALTY FLAST Offsides on FARMER, Joshua enforced 5 yards from the DUKE31 to the DUKE36 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-3
57.2%
Peyton Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 33Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
56.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 13
OWN 33
-2
56.4%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 43 yds , Lawayne McCoy returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5843% → 43%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
57.0%
Brock Glenn run for 5 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
56.9%
Brock Glenn run for 2 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
56.9%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+10
57.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 50 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 10 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2657% → 56%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
56.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Javon Harvey for 4 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
57.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
56.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
56.4%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Lawayne McCoy at the FSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:4143% → 43%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
56.9%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 6 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
56.7%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
57.1%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+31
57.4%
Kyle Morlock run for 31 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
55.9%
Kam Davis run for 16 yds to the DUKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
55.5%
Kam Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 30Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 13
OPP 30
0
55.5%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 13
OPP 30
0
56.3%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+48
57.2%
Ryan Fitzgerald 48 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Wesley WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1157% → 57%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
56.7%
Duke Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 28Similar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+10
56.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 10 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
57.5%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
57.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
56.9%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Lawayne McCoy at the FSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:1543% → 39%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FSU 26Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
56.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the FSU 26Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-36
60.9%
Brock Glenn pass intercepted Chandler Rivers return for 36 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
60.5%
Brock Glenn run for 12 yds to the FSU 36 Brock Glenn fumbled, recovered by DUKE Ryan Smith R. Smith return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
13 plays · 36 yds · 4:4261% → 68%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
61.4%
Que'Sean Brown run for no gain to the FSU 36Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
61.5%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q1 0:26
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+1
61.5%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the FSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
62.3%
(14:58) THOMAS, Star rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the FLAST24 (KIRKLAND, K.J.;FARMER, Joshua), clock 14:55. PENALTY FLAST Offsides on FARMER, Joshua enforced 5 yards from the FLAST26 to the FLAST21 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 5
OPP 21
0
62.4%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-1
62.4%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 22Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+11
62.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 11 yds to the FSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
62.8%
(13:10) MURPHY, Maalik pass up the middle incomplete intended for HARVEY, Javon thrown to the FLAST0, clock 13:08. PENALTY FLAST Offsides on PAYTON, Patrick enforced 5 yards from the FLAST11 to the FLAST6 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 5
OPP 6
0
62.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
62.8%
Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the FSU 4Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
62.3%
Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the FSU 2Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
68.1%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-29
67.4%
Brock Glenn pass intercepted Ozzie Nicholas return for 29 yds to the FSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2770% → 73%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
69.5%
Peyton Jones run for no gain to the FSU 11Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
69.9%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+1
69.4%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the FSU 10Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
73.3%
Todd Pelino 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:3427% → 26%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
72.7%
Kam Davis run for 12 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
72.7%
Kam Davis run for 1 yd to the FSU 36Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-2
73.2%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked by Alex Howard for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 34Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+6
74.2%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 6 yds to the FSU 40Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
74.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5274% → 74%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
74.1%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 10Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 8
OWN 10
-1
74.6%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 9Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+1
74.1%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 10Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 8
OWN 10
0
74.0%
punt blocked by AJ Cottrill blocked by AJ CottrillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15FG
12 plays · 21 yds · 3:2025% → 25%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
75.0%
Kam Davis run for 3 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
74.6%
Kam Davis run for 6 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
74.5%
Kam Davis run for 3 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
74.9%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
75.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+15
75.8%
(02:44) KROMENHOEK, Luke sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the DUKE48 (PICKETT, Joshua), clock 02:40. PENALTY DUKE Personal Foul on ANTHONY JR., Vincent enforced 15 yards from the DUKE41 to the DUKE26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
74.3%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 31Similar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+4
75.8%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 4 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 11
OPP 27
-8
74.6%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked by Alex Howard for a loss of 8 yards to the DUKE 35Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 19
OPP 35
0
76.5%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 19
OPP 35
+53
75.4%
Ryan Fitzgerald 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0375% → 75%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.1%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the DUKE 20Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
75.2%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
74.9%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 29Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
74.3%
Duke Penalty, False Start (Kevin O'Connor) to the DUKE 24Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+7
75.3%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 53 yds , Lawayne McCoy returns for 7 yds to the FSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17END OF HALF
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:3123% → 22%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
77.2%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 4 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
76.9%
Luke Kromenhoek run for no gain to the FSU 34Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
78.6%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 8 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
77.5%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-6
78.0%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked by Wesley Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the FSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 5:1164% → 73%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
63.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 5 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
64.2%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+5
63.9%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
64.9%
Peyton Jones run for 5 yds to the DUKE 44Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+12
65.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 12 yds to the FSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
66.8%
Peyton Jones run for 20 yds to the FSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
70.4%
Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the FSU 22Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-4
70.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 26Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
68.9%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+44
72.8%
Todd Pelino 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2430% → 28%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
70.5%
Kam Davis run for 4 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
70.0%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+4
71.3%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 4 yds to the FSU 38Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
71.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 48 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for no gain to the DUKE 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2375% → 74%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
75.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+1
75.1%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 15Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+4
74.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 4 yds to the DUKE 19Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 5
OWN 19
-2
74.0%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 48 yds , Lawayne McCoy returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5829% → 25%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
71.3%
Kam Davis run for 1 yd to the FSU 32Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+7
71.9%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Malik Benson for 7 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
70.3%
Kam Davis run for no gain to the FSU 39Similar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
75.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 53 yds, downed at the DUKE 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4678% → 79%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
77.7%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 9Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+10
77.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 10 yds to the DUKE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
78.7%
(03:04) THOMAS, Star rush to the left for a gain of 23 yards to the DUKE42 (CYPRESS II, Fentrell), out of bounds, clock 03:00. PENALTY DUKE Holding on TAYLOR, Jake enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the DUKE19 to the DUKE10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+15
79.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 15 yds to the DUKE 25Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+1
80.4%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 26Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
79.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
78.6%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 49 yds, downed at the FSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:4323% → 28%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
77.3%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 10 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
76.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 37Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+17
77.0%
Brock Glenn run for 17 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
74.3%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 19 yds to the DUKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
72.5%
Kam Davis run for 11 yds to the DUKE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
75.2%
Florida State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Ja'Khi Douglas) to the DUKE 21Similar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 15
OPP 21
0
75.8%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 15
OPP 21
-10
76.9%
(13:24) GLENN, Brock pass to the left complete for 4 yards to TOAFILI, Lawrance caught at the DUKE25 and advanced to the DUKE17 (BERGERON, Cameron;ANTHONY JR., Vincent), clock 13:19. PENALTY FLAST Illegal Block in the Back on BROWN, Jalen enforced 10 yards from the DUKE21 to the DUKE31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 25
OPP 31
-2
77.7%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 33Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 27
OPP 33
+14
80.5%
Brock Glenn run for 14 yds to the DUKE 19Similar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+38
72.2%
Ryan Fitzgerald 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:3573% → 88%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
72.9%
(11:33) MURPHY, Maalik pass deep up the middle intercepted by BROWN, Shyheim at the FLAST45 intended for PANCOL, Eli. Brown return for 0 yards to the FLAST45, End of Play, clock 11:29. PENALTY FLAST Holding on BARKER, Ashlynd enforced 10 yards from the DUKE25 to the DUKE35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+44
73.5%
Star Thomas run for 44 yds to the FSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
78.2%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the FSU 21Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-1
78.6%
Peyton Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 22Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 11
OPP 22
0
76.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+39
87.6%
Todd Pelino 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25FUMBLE
6 plays · 52 yds · 3:2617% → 16%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
83.0%
Brock Glenn sacked by Ryan Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 15Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+14
83.6%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 14 yds to the FSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
84.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the FSU 35Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+11
84.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 11 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
84.3%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 17 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
83.7%
Kam Davis run for 6 yds to the DUKE 31 Kam Davis fumbled, recovered by DUKE Preston Watson P. Watson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:2792% → 93%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
91.5%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
91.6%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the DUKE 37Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-10
93.7%
(03:49) THOMAS, Star rush to the right for a gain of 26 yards to the FLAST37 (PAYTON, Patrick), clock 03:37. PENALTY DUKE Holding on KRINGS, Caleb enforced 10 yards from the DUKE37 to the DUKE27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 14
OWN 27
-4
92.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 23Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 18
OWN 23
0
92.8%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · -3 yds · 1:4113% → 9%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
87.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 39Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-1
90.0%
Brock Glenn sacked by Aaron Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 38Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+9
90.2%
Brock Glenn run for 9 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+15
88.9%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 15 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
85.8%
Brock Glenn sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. and Wesley Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the DUKE 47Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 19
OPP 47
-5
88.4%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (Jeremiah Byers) to the FSU 48Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 24
OWN 48
0
89.5%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 24
OWN 48
0
90.1%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 24
OWN 48
-10
90.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 10 yards to the FSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:3297% → 98%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
96.5%
Kneel down by TEAM at FLAST40 (team loss of 2), clock 00:51.Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-3
98.0%
(00:48) Kneel down by TEAM at FLAST43 (team loss of 3), clock 00:45.Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 15
OPP 43
-2
98.1%
(00:19) Kneel down by TEAM at FLAST45 (team loss of 2), clock 00:15.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 8:58
Todd Pelino 39 yd FG GOOD
+10.7
FG · Q4 11:35
Ryan Fitzgerald 38 yd FG GOOD
-8.3
TD · Q2 11:43
Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com