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BC

Boston College 21 at Virginia Tech 42

VT
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 17, 2024 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:57 · Ivan Zivenko punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense+12.3Pregame prior+16.1Score differential+8.0Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:40: Bhayshul Tuten run for 83 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +6.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:07: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 11 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +9.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:55: Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +12.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:02: Bhayshul Tuten run for 6 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +7.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:28: Bhayshul Tuten run for 61 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +6.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 11:59BC 4th & 4 at BC 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:57BC 4th & 6 at BC 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:54VT 4th & 3 at BC 44, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%−1.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:14BC 4th & 9 at VT 44, down 21
    Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:12VT 4th & 1 at VT 16, up 21
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:15BC 4th & 11 at VT 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:59VT 4th & 10 at VT 35, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:00VT 4th & 14 at VT 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−4.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:28BC 4th & 1 at BC 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.0%−4.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:38BC 4th & 13 at VT 19, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:42BC 4th & 18 at VT 22, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:00VT 4th & 6 at BC 34, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:15VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:06VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:40VT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:11VT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:48BC Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:07BC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:55BC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:02VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:28VT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3127% → 27%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 8 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
73.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
73.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for 3 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
72.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+1
72.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 1 yd to the BC 43Similar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
72.7%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 5:1773% → 75%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
72.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 9 yds to the VT 21Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+9
72.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 9 yds to the VT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
72.4%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 9 yds to the VT 39Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
72.7%
Kyron Drones run for no gain to the VT 39Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+7
72.5%
Kyron Drones run for 7 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
72.4%
Kyron Drones run for 8 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+5
72.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 5 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
72.4%
Bhayshul Tuten run for no gain to the BC 41Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+20
72.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 20 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
72.4%
Da'Quan Felton run for 10 yds to the BC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
74.9%
Kyron Drones run for 11 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5026% → 26%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.2%
Johnathan Montague Jr. run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
74.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-15
74.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for no gain to the BC 34 Thomas Castellanos fumbled, recovered by VT Keyshawn Burgos for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the BC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:3975% → 79%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
75.2%
Jaylin Lane run for 5 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-2
75.3%
Kyron Drones run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 16Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+15
75.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 15 yds to the BC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.3%
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5FUMBLE
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:3022% → 23%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
77.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 26 yds to the VT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
77.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for 8 yds to the VT 41Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+4
77.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the VT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
77.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 4 yds to the VT 33Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+5
76.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the VT 28Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
77.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the VT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
77.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 9 yds to the VT 16Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+1
77.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the VT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
77.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 16Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+11
77.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 6 yds to the VT 10 for a 1ST down Virginia Tech Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (5 Yards) to the VT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-1
77.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 6 Thomas Castellanos fumbled, recovered by VT Antwaun Powell-RylandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD
2 plays · 94 yds · 0:3880% → 87%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
80.3%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 11 yds to the VT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
87.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 83 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3013% → 12%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
87.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+2
87.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 2 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
88.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
88.3%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5589% → 90%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
88.5%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the VT 39Similar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+3
88.6%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 3 yds to the VT 42Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 17
OWN 42
0
89.9%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+14
89.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 14 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+20
89.8%
Kyron Drones run for 20 yds to the BC 24 Kyron Drones fumbled, recovered by BC Max TuckerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:0511% → 10%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
89.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 12 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
88.9%
Turbo Richard run for 5 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+14
88.7%
Turbo Richard run for 14 yds to the VT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
89.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 4 yards to the VT 49 Thomas Castellanos fumbled, recovered by BC Turbo RichardSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+5
89.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the VT 44Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
89.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
90.1%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 37 yds, downed at the VT 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5493% → 93%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
92.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 3 yds to the VT 10Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+5
92.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 5 yds to the VT 15Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+1
93.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 1 yd to the VT 16Similar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+3
92.9%
Peter Moore punt for 44 yds , Cameron Martinez returns for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:509% → 7%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
91.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 8 yds to the VT 49Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
91.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
91.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
91.3%
Turbo Richard run for 8 yds to the VT 38Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 2
OPP 38
-3
91.0%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland for a loss of 3 yards to the VT 41Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-6
91.6%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland for a loss of 6 yards to the VT 47Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 11
OPP 47
+4
92.6%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 36 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 4 yds to the VT 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 0:4995% → 98%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
94.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 16 yds to the VT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
94.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 15 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
95.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 5 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+15
95.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 15 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
95.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 14 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
98.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 20 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:3198% → 99%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-9
98.3%
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd to the VT 25 Virginia Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VT 15Similar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+10
98.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 10 yds to the VT 25Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 10 yds to the VT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 5 yds to the VT 40Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
98.6%
Collin Schlee run for a loss of 5 yards to the VT 35Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
98.7%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
98.7%
Peter Moore punt for 45 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for no gain to the BC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:011% → 5%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
98.8%
Turbo Richard run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
50
-5
98.8%
Lewis Bond run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 45Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+14
99.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 14 yds to the VT 41Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+17
98.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for 17 yds to the VT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
98.9%
Turbo Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 25Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+25
94.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 25 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+15
95.3%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3096% → 95%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.6%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 1 yd to the VT 26Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
95.4%
Kyron Drones pass intercepted Cameron Martinez return for 1 yd to the VT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:565% → 14%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
94.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 16 yds to the VT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
94.9%
Turbo Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 14Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+3
95.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the VT 11Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
85.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 11 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
89.8%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 12 yds to the VT 18 Bhayshul Tuten fumbled, recovered by BC , return for 2 yds to the VT 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3215% → 26%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
84.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the VT 14Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-8
85.6%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland for a loss of 8 yards to the VT 22Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+10
87.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for no gain to the VT 22 for a 1ST down Virginia Tech Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the VT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
86.5%
Turbo Richard run for 5 yds to the VT 7Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
86.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the VT 5Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
74.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:3082% → 82%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.9%
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd to the VT 26Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
81.8%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 12 yds to the VT 38 Virginia Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VT 28Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
82.1%
Kyron Drones sacked by Cameron Martinez for a loss of 7 yards to the VT 21Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
82.6%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
81.7%
Peter Moore punt for 50 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for no gain to the BC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:2621% → 20%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
78.7%
Turbo Richard run for 3 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
78.7%
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd to the BC 33Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+7
79.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 7 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
80.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
80.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
79.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for 3 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
80.2%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the BC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:0288% → 95%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
87.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 18 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+25
88.3%
Ayden Greene run for 25 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.3%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 6 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23FUMBLE
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:228% → 7%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.2%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 20Similar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+18
92.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 18 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+46
92.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Reed Harris for 46 yds to the VT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
89.8%
Boston College Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the VT 21Similar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+2
91.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the VT 19Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 13
OPP 19
0
91.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 13
OPP 19
0
92.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+12
92.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the VT 27, TEAM fumbled, recovered by VT Dorian Strong, return for 12 yds to the VT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
98.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 61 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 53 yds · 2:281% → 1%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
98.9%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 27Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
98.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 4 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for 5 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+15
99.2%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the VT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+30
99.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 30 yds to the VT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-8
99.1%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland for a loss of 8 yards to the VT 22Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 18
OPP 22
0
99.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 18
OPP 22
0
99.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 18
OPP 22
0
99.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26END OF GAME
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:1699% → 100%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.1%
Malachi Thomas run for 2 yds to the VT 24Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
99.3%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 3 yds to the VT 27Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+3
99.4%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 3 yds to the VT 30Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+15
99.3%
Boston College Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the VT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
99.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 17 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.5%
Malachi Thomas run for 2 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
99.5%
Collin Schlee run for 5 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
99.6%
Jeremiah Coney run for 2 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-5
99.5%
Virginia Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 34Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+19
99.6%
Jeremiah Coney run for 19 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 16Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 11
OPP 16
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 17Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 12
OPP 17
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:55
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q3 6:07
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 11 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q4 11:02
Bhayshul Tuten run for 6 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com