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BYU

BYU 18 at SMU 15

SMU
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2024 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:04 · Sam Vander Haar punt for 45 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior+21.4Home team on offense−2.3Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:16: Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Mata'ava Ta'ase for 16 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +3.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:42: Collin Rogers 38 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +6.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:15: Enoch Nawahine run for 9 yds for a TD (Jake Retzlaff pass to Keanu Hill for Two-Point Conversion) — BYU win probability +20.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:17: Collin Rogers 45 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +13.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:58: Will Ferrin 26 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +28.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 14 of 14BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:17SMU 4th & 19 at SMU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:39SMU 4th & 19 at SMU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:15SMU 4th & 1 at BYU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    73.5%−0.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:45SMU 4th & 1 at BYU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−1.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 15, up 7
    Close callPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:06SMU 4th & 10 at BYU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:04BYU 4th & 22 at BYU 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:47SMU 4th & 16 at SMU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:29BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:03SMU 4th & 9 at BYU 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:54BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:46BYU 4th & 1 at SMU 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.3%−1.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−5.8
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:42SMU 4th & 8 at BYU 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−5.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:42SMU 4th & 1 at BYU 13, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−2.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−10.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:28SMU 4th & 10 at BYU 11, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−1.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−8.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:48BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 33, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:34SMU 4th & 16 at SMU 14, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−4.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:34SMU 4th & 16 at SMU 14, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−4.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:15BYU 4th & 2 at SMU 9, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.5%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−2.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−16.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:08BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 17, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.6 ptsPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%−5.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:17SMU 4th & 3 at BYU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−15.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:05BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.4%−8.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:58BYU 4th & 3 at SMU 8, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%−4.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−37.0
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:25SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.6%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:16BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 1:15BYU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    44.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:4380% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
79.5%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
79.5%
Preston Stone sacked by Jack Kelly for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
79.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3121% → 22%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
79.1%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
79.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
79.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Ryner Swanson for 10 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
78.5%
Jake Retzlaff run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 43 Jake Retzlaff fumbled, recovered by SMU Elijah Roberts E. Roberts return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:0779% → 78%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-11
79.0%
Preston Stone sacked by Blake Mangelson for a loss of 11 yards to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 21
OWN 46
+2
78.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 2 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 19
OWN 48
0
78.7%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 19
OWN 48
0
78.3%
Isaac Pearson punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2322% → 26%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.4%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
78.2%
LJ Martin run for 5 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
78.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+17
78.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 17 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
78.0%
Jake Retzlaff run for 5 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
78.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+15
78.1%
SMU Penalty, Roughing the Passer on WILSON, Kobe enforced (Kobe Wilson) to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
74.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Mata'ava Ta'ase for 16 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5DOWNS
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:2375% → 72%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
75.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 11 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
75.3%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
75.2%
Kevin Jennings run for 15 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
75.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
75.9%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
73.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
73.5%
Kevin Jennings run for 2 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
74.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 11 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
74.4%
Kevin Jennings run for 3 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
74.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+6
73.9%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
71.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5329% → 30%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
71.1%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+2
71.0%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+1
70.1%
Hinckley Ropati run for 1 yd to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
70.3%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4671% → 71%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
70.9%
Brashard Smith run for 16 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
71.2%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 37Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+1
70.1%
Kevin Jennings run for 1 yd to the BYU 36Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
69.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+53
71.1%
Collin Rogers 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 1:0228% → 28%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
71.6%
Jake Retzlaff sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
71.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
71.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 17
OWN 18
-5
72.0%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 13Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
72.0%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 45 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1771% → 69%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
71.0%
Preston Stone run for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-8
70.9%
Preston Stone sacked by Isaiah Glasker for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 16
OWN 26
0
69.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 16
OWN 26
+9
68.8%
Isaac Pearson punt for 47 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 9 yds to the BYU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1831% → 31%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
69.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
69.6%
Hinckley Ropati run for 2 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+4
69.2%
Hinckley Ropati run for 4 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+20
68.8%
Landon Rehkow punt for 49 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 20 yds to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:2669% → 70%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
69.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 10 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
70.0%
Brashard Smith run for 7 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
70.9%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
50
+2
71.1%
Kevin Jennings run for 2 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
71.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 5 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+7
70.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
71.3%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
71.2%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
70.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+52
69.6%
Collin Rogers 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0532% → 31%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
68.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
68.4%
Hinckley Ropati run for 4 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
68.8%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 6
OWN 20
-2
69.1%
Landon Rehkow punt for 42 yds , Brashard Smith returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0835% → 35%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
64.8%
Darius Lassiter run for no gain to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
64.9%
Hinckley Ropati run for 9 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
63.1%
Hinckley Ropati run for no gain to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-2
64.6%
Miles Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:0466% → 76%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
65.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 5 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-10
66.9%
JENNINGS, Kevin pass up the middle complete for 21 yards to BRINSON, Romello caught at the SMU45 and advanced to the BYU45 (JOHNSON, Evan). PENALTY SMU Holding on BYRD, Savion enforced 10 yards from the SMU34 to the SMU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+6
66.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 6 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+15
65.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 15 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
69.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 15 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
70.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 17 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
71.1%
Kevin Jennings run for 3 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-1
71.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
69.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
76.3%
Collin Rogers 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:3326% → 26%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
73.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 12 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
76.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Hinckley Ropati for 3 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
75.7%
Jake Retzlaff run for 7 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
75.3%
Jake Retzlaff run for 5 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+11
74.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 11 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
73.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+55
73.9%
Will Ferrin 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 57 yds · 1:1328% → 32%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
72.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+57
72.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 57 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-34
68.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass intercepted Kobe Wilson return for 34 yds to the BYU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 24 yds · 4:1376% → 78%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
76.1%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
76.0%
Kevin Jennings run for 1 yd to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+12
75.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 12 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
76.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
76.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+2
74.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 2 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
72.9%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
75.3%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the BYU 11Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
75.3%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
74.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
77.5%
Collin Rogers 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:2827% → 23%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
73.4%
Enoch Nawahine run for 1 yd to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+7
73.5%
Enoch Nawahine run for 7 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
72.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Enoch Nawahine for 1 yd to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 1
OWN 38
-5
73.4%
BYU Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+46
74.8%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 46 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
76.7%
JENNINGS, Kevin pass short to the left complete for 9 yards to KNIGHTON, Jaylan caught at the SMU25 and advanced to the SMU29 (GLASKER, Isaiah), out of bounds. PENALTY SMU Holding on WILLIAMS, PJ enforced 10 yards from the SMU20 to the SMU10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:1477% → 74%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 20
OWN 10
-1
76.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+5
75.6%
JENNINGS, Kevin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Jordan broken up by JOHNSON, Evan at the SMU32. PENALTY BYU Offsides on SINGH, Joshua enforced 5 yards from the SMU9 to the SMU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 16
OWN 14
0
76.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
75.3%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 16
OWN 14
-2
74.4%
Isaac Pearson punt for 45 yds , Parker Kingston returns for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 16
OWN 14
-2
74.4%
Isaac Pearson punt for 45 yds , Parker Kingston returns for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 4:1929% → 53%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
71.4%
Jake Retzlaff run for 12 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
69.1%
Jake Retzlaff run for 6 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+26
68.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Mata'ava Ta'ase for 26 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
67.3%
Jake Retzlaff run for 2 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-2
65.3%
Keelan Marion run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+8
68.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keanu Hill for 8 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+9
47.5%
Enoch Nawahine run for 9 yds for a TD (Jake Retzlaff pass to Keanu Hill for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21INT
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:1051% → 59%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
50.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+17
51.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 17 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
52.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+20
51.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+30
57.0%
Brashard Smith run for 30 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
59.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
59.1%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted Marque Collins return for no gain to the BYU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:2351% → 43%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
49.1%
Hinckley Ropati run for 13 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
48.3%
Hinckley Ropati run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 17Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 11
OWN 17
-13
45.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass intercepted Jared Harrison-Hunte return for 13 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q4 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
56.8%
SMITH, Brashard rush up the middle for no gain to the BYU3 (LUTUI, Logan). PENALTY SMU Holding on CHAMBLEE, Andrew enforced 10 yards from the BYU3 to the BYU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+5
56.1%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the BYU 8 Brashard Smith fumbled, recovered by BYU Jakob Robinson J. Robinson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:2255% → 58%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
44.6%
Enoch Nawahine run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 7Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+5
45.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 5 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+5
46.2%
Jake Retzlaff run for 5 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
42.0%
Landon Rehkow punt for 28 yds, downed at the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5150% → 62%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
50.4%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+7
50.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 7 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
52.5%
Kevin Jennings run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-6
52.5%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+8
48.1%
Brashard Smith run for 8 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
62.0%
Collin Rogers 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:1947% → 85%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
52.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 14 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
49.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
50.2%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+7
49.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Miles Davis for 7 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+37
48.5%
Miles Davis run for 37 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
41.8%
Jake Retzlaff run for 3 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
41.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+4
44.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Miles Davis for 4 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
15.3%
Will Ferrin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3334% → 24%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
33.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
31.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
30.3%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
24.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:2590% → 94%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
10.1%
Kneel down by RETZLAFF, Jake at SMU41 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-2
10.2%
Kneel down by RETZLAFF, Jake at SMU43 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 43
-1
6.2%
Kneel down by RETZLAFF, Jake at SMU44 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:58
Will Ferrin 26 yd FG GOOD
-28.9
TD · Q3 1:15
Enoch Nawahine run for 9 yds for a TD (Jake Retzlaff pass to Keanu Hill for Two-Point Conversion)
-20.5
FG · Q4 6:17
Collin Rogers 45 yd FG GOOD
+13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com