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BC

Boston College 28 at Florida State 13

FSU
2024 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2024 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:00 · Sam Candotti punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lucas at the FSU 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+21.2Home team on offense−9.4Score differential−5.2Garbage-time factor−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:58: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 13 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +7.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:58: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 4 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +14.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:19: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 29 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +17.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:03: Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +14.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:59: Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the BC 40 — BC win probability +9.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:05BC 4th & 5 at FSU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:14FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:17FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:37FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:08BC 4th & 5 at BC 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:05FSU 4th & 13 at BC 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:00BC 4th & 4 at BC 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:15FSU 4th & 1 at BC 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−1.0
    70% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−5.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:25FSU 4th & 6 at BC 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:41FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 47, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:33FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−1.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:17BC 4th & 3 at BC 47, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:05FSU 4th & 16 at BC 39, down 15
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    20.2%
    36% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:01BC 4th & 9 at BC 40, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:03FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 11, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−1.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:48BC 4th & 5 at BC 46, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:04FSU 4th & 20 at FSU 36, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 14:56BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:58BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:58BC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:19FSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:03BC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:5015% → 16%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.3%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the BC 25Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
85.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 11 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
84.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+10
84.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Reed Harris for 10 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
84.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jayden McGowan for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 15
50
+10
84.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for 10 yds to the FSU 40Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
84.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Treshaun WardSimilar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
83.8%
Sam Candotti punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4684% → 83%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
83.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Roydell Williams for 4 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
83.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
83.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jayden McGowan at the BC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 9:0417% → 25%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
83.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the BC 30Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+4
83.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+5
83.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 5 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
83.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 8 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+5
81.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the FSU 37 Kye Robichaux fumbled, recovered by BC Reed Harris for a 1ST down , return for 11 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
81.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the FSU 32Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+3
81.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+6
81.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 6 yds to the FSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
80.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the FSU 22Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+3
80.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the FSU 19Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+7
79.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 7 yds to the FSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
78.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the FSU 9Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
78.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the FSU 4Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
74.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1876% → 74%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
75.9%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
75.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+1
74.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 1 yd to the FSU 26Similar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+8
74.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 50 yds , Jayden McGowan returns for 8 yds to the BC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:1626% → 37%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
74.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
74.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+42
73.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 42 yds to the FSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
72.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 23Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+14
71.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 14 yds to the FSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
70.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 13Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
63.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 13 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5864% → 63%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.9%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 3 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
63.5%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 5 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
63.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Jaylin LucasSimilar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-3
62.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 59 yds , Jayden McGowan returns for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 10 Jayden McGowan fumbled, recovered by BC Jayden McGowan , return for 5 yds to the BC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1739% → 39%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
61.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
61.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Reed HarrisSimilar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+2
61.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
60.8%
Sam Candotti punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5863% → 62%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
62.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
62.4%
Kam Davis run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+25
61.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 25 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-8
61.2%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 13Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
60.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Roydell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
59.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Kyle MorlockSimilar
Q2 5:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
62.3%
Ryan Fitzgerald 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5038% → 40%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
61.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
60.4%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Daniel Lyons for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 31Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
60.3%
Sam Candotti punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lucas at the FSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 2:3159% → 59%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
59.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
58.9%
Florida State Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the FSU 19Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+30
58.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 30 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
60.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Malik Benson for 19 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
62.2%
Florida State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the BC 37Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 15
OPP 37
0
59.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Kyle MorlockSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 15
OPP 37
0
59.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+14
58.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 14 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
58.7%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 2 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
59.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Malik Benson for 4 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+11
59.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Roydell Williams for 11 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
59.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
59.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
57.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Kyle MorlockSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
59.2%
Ryan Fitzgerald 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5658% → 55%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 9 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
59.5%
Kam Davis run for 8 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
59.3%
Kam Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 40Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
57.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Roydell WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+7
55.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 7 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 5
OWN 47
-58
55.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass intercepted Max Tucker return for 58 yds to the FSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:2250% → 65%
Q3 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
49.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the FSU 4Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 4 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:1841% → 39%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
41.6%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (Maurice Smith) to the FSU 25Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 6 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
39.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Kyle MorlockSimilar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
38.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 65 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 43 yds · 3:0566% → 71%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+21
34.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 21 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
33.0%
Turbo Richard run for 15 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
30.4%
Turbo Richard run for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
29.6%
Turbo Richard run for 4 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+1
28.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the BC 47Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+25
29.3%
Sam Candotti punt for 40 yds Boston College Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the FSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:5133% → 49%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
33.3%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the FSU 32Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-5
33.5%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (Maurice Smith) to the FSU 27Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 11
OWN 27
0
31.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Kyle MorlockSimilar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+15
30.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jalen Brown for 15 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
31.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 29 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
49.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 29 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1658% → 84%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
42.3%
Florida State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
39.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 15 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
37.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 10 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
34.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+23
34.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 23 yds to the FSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
32.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the FSU 7Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
32.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the FSU 4Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+2
30.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the FSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 2:4322% → 19%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.1%
Caziah Holmes run for no gain to the FSU 25Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
21.1%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 13 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
22.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Darion Williamson for 5 yds to the FSU 43Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
22.9%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+21
21.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 21 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-13
23.1%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku for a loss of 13 yards to the BC 46 Florida State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the BC 46Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 23
OPP 46
0
20.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 23
OPP 46
+7
19.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kam Davis for 7 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
19.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5890% → 90%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
10.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the BC 40Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
9.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
10.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Jayden McGowanSimilar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 9
OWN 40
-3
10.5%
Sam Candotti punt for 44 yds , Malik Benson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4215% → 10%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
15.4%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Neto Okpala for a loss of 7 yards to the FSU 6Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 17
OWN 6
0
14.5%
DJ Uiagalelei run for no gain to the FSU 6Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 17
OWN 6
+5
11.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 5 yds to the FSU 11Similar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 12
OWN 11
0
10.2%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jayden McGowan at the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0293% → 94%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
6.7%
Turbo Richard run for 7 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
6.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for no gain to the BC 48Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-2
5.8%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Sione Lolohea and Daniel Lyons for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 46Similar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
5.8%
Sam Candotti punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:277% → 6%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
7.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Malik Benson for 10 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
7.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 16 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
7.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
7.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-10
6.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Deuce Spann for 5 yds to the BC 49 Florida State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TJ Ferguson) to the FSU 36Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 20
OWN 36
0
6.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23Uncategorized
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:3995% → 99%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.7%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the BC 20Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+18
4.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 18 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
3.5%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the BC 38Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
3.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+16
2.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 16 yds to the FSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
1.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
1.4%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the FSU 39Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+35
1.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 35 yds to the FSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 8Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:19
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 29 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+17.4
TD · Q3 1:03
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
-14.5
TD · Q3 11:58
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 4 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com