View as
Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:02 · Brady Denaburg 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:05: Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 20 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — SYR win probability +6.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:44: Anthony Tyus III run for 13 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +9.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:37: Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 5 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — SYR win probability +6.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:34: Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 14 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — SYR win probability +5.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:22: Anthony Tyus III run for 46 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — OHIO win probability +5.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 5OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 8:33OHIO 4th & 14 at SYR 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.7% before the snapGo for it14.6%−0.118% to convertField goalTheir call14.7%66% to makePunt14.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:35SYR 4th & 4 at SYR 29, down 3Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snapGo for it84.3%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 0:11OHIO 4th & 20 at SYR 20, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snapGo for it18.0%−0.89% to convertField goalTheir call18.8%75% to makePunt17.0%−1.8average punt
- Q2 9:03OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 42, down 1Close callPunted · 19.4% before the snapGo for it19.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:02SYR 4th & 7 at OHIO 9, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snapGo for it78.9%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call79.1%89% to makePunt75.4%−3.7average punt
- Q2 0:49OHIO 4th & 3 at SYR 3, down 4Close callKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snapGo for it22.5%44% to convertField goalTheir call22.1%−0.493% to makePunt18.4%−4.1average punt
- Q3 14:06SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 26, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snapGo for it84.7%−0.933% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.7%average punt
- Q3 5:31OHIO 4th & 16 at OHIO 19, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snapGo for it11.6%−2.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.2%average punt
- Q3 1:46OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 25, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.4%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q4 13:30SYR 4th & 1 at OHIO 1, up 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.8%59% to convertField goal93.0%−1.894% to makePunt88.6%−6.2average punt
- Q4 10:29SYR 4th & 3 at SYR 41, up 16Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snapGo for it96.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:38OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 42, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:48OHIO 4th & 2 at SYR 19, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%56% to convertField goal2.2%−0.677% to makePunt1.6%−1.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 12:28SYR Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.1%97% to makeGo for two81.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:05SYR Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.4%97% to makeGo for two84.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:44OHIO Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.9%97% to makeGo for two24.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:37SYR Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.5%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:34SYR Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:30SYR Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:22OHIO Touchdown, down 16 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick4.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call4.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1FG14 plays · 50 yds · 6:2711% → 13%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
88.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 9 yds to the OHIO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
88.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 13 yds to the SYR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
-5
88.7%
Parker Navarro run for a loss of 5 yards to the SYR 20 Parker Navarro fumbled, recovered by OHIO Parker Navarro P. Navarro return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5286% → 86%
Q1 7:35
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
85.8%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the OHIO 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3FG13 plays · 54 yds · 7:2414% → 19%
Q1 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+9
86.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 9 yds to the OHIO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
83.0%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for a loss of 3 yards to the SYR 11Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-9
83.3%
Parker Navarro sacked by Kevin Jobity Jr. and Denis Jaquez Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the SYR 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3282% → 85%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
81.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 5 yds to the SYR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+20
81.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 20 yds to the OHIO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+10
82.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 10 yds to the OHIO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
85.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 28 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 3:2516% → 18%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 8 yds to the OHIO 33Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-3
83.0%
Parker Navarro sacked by Marlowe Wax for a loss of 3 yards to the OHIO 30Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
84.2%
WILSON, Jack punt 48 yards to the SYR22, PENA, Trebor returned 4 yards to the SYR26 (COLLIER, Reise). PENALTY SYR Running Into the kicker enforced 5 yards from the OHI30 to the OHI35 and results in a 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
82.9%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rickey Hunt Jr. for 6 yds to the OHIO 44Similar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
82.1%
Jack Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the SYR 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6FG17 plays · 73 yds · 7:0183% → 83%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
83.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 8 yds to the SYR 38Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+8
83.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 8 yds to the SYR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-9
84.0%
Kyle McCord sacked by Bradley Weaver for a loss of 9 yards to the SYR 37Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+15
82.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 15 yds to the OHIO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+9
84.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 9 yds to the OHIO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+12
84.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Zeed Haynes for 12 yds to the OHIO 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7FG9 plays · 72 yds · 1:1318% → 23%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
82.1%
Syracuse Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Barron) to the SYR 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
79.3%
NAVARRO, Parker pass short to the right incomplete thrown to the SYR0. PENALTY SYR Holding enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the SYR5 to the SYR3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8TD9 plays · 75 yds · 0:4480% → 88%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
79.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 18 yds to the SYR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
81.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for no gain to the SYR 43Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+21
80.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 21 yds to the OHIO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
81.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 8 yds to the OHIO 28Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+8
81.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 8 yds to the OHIO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
88.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 20 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
86.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by NAVARRO, Parker at OHI24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4887% → 86%
Q3 14:06
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
85.8%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Coleman Owen at the OHIO 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2214% → 26%
SYRDrive 12TD9 plays · 75 yds · 5:0778% → 88%
Q3 11:44
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
80.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 4 yds to the OHIO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
80.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 16 yds to the OHIO 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 5 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:0614% → 13%
SYRDrive 14TD5 plays · 67 yds · 1:5787% → 95%
OHIODrive 15PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:428% → 6%
SYRDrive 16TD8 plays · 68 yds · 3:1695% → 99%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+42
94.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Zeed Haynes for 42 yds to the OHIO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
95.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 7 yds to the OHIO 19Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+10
95.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 10 yds to the OHIO 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:081% → 7%
SYRDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4896% → 97%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
96.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Zeed Haynes for 10 yds to the SYR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19INT7 plays · 60 yds · 3:405% → 6%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+27
95.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 27 yds to the OHIO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+9
94.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 9 yds to the SYR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
94.5%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 5 yds to the SYR 33Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-8
94.0%
Parker Navarro pass intercepted James Heard Jr. return for 8 yds to the SYR 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20INT6 plays · 9 yds · 3:1197% → 98%
Q4 6:49
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-10
97.3%
MCCORD, Kyle pass deep to the left complete for 44 yards to GADSDEN II, Oronde caught at the OHI20 and advanced to the OHI2 (PEARSON, Tank). PENALTY SYR Holding enforced 10 yards from the OHI46 to the SYR44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 17
OWN 44
0
97.8%
Kyle McCord pass intercepted Tank Pearson return for no gain to the OHIO 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21DOWNS13 plays · 66 yds · 2:503% → 3%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
97.0%
Parker Navarro sacked by Fadil Diggs for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 12Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+10
97.0%
NAVARRO, Parker pass deep to the left incomplete thrown to the OHI30. PENALTY SYR Holding enforced 10 yards from the OHI12 to the OHI22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
96.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 6 yds to the OHIO 39Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+3
96.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 3 yds to the OHIO 42Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+15
96.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Coleman Owen for 15 yds to the SYR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
95.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Caleb Gossett for 5 yds to the SYR 22Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+3
95.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 3 yds to the SYR 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22END OF GAME1 play · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:44
Anthony Tyus III run for 13 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q3 6:37
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 5 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 0:05
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 20 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
+6.1