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HCU

Houston Christian 7 at SMU 59

SMU
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadHCU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreHCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Zach Hernandez run for 3 yds to the SMU 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:07: Brashard Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +3.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:04: Brashard Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +4.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 2:03: Anthony Booker Jr. 16 Yd Fumble Return (LJ Johnson Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion) — SMU win probability +6.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: HCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 13:42: Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — HCU win probability +2.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:05: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 35 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +1.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 14:07SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:07HCU 4th & 13 at HCU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:02HCU 4th & 16 at HCU 22, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:32HCU 4th & 3 at HCU 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:37HCU 4th & 10 at SMU 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:20SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 41, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:27HCU 4th & 5 at SMU 45, down 35
    Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:33HCU 4th & 12 at HCU 45, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:33SMU 4th & 1 at HCU 36, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:12HCU 4th & 7 at SMU 36, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:44HCU 4th & 5 at HCU 30, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:44SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 46, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:54SMU 4th & 3 at HCU 6, up 49
    Close callKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:54HCU 4th & 17 at HCU 18, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8HCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:47SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    52.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:07SMU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:04SMU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:03SMU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:42SMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 12:19HCU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 5:05SMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:35SMU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:48SMU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5372% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.8%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
71.8%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
71.6%
Isaac Pearson punt for 40 yds, downed at the HCU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0028% → 29%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
71.7%
Cutter Stewart pass complete to Champ Dozier for 3 yds to the HCU 25Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+8
71.7%
Cutter Stewart pass complete to Champ Dozier for 8 yds to the HCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
71.7%
Cutter Stewart pass complete to Collin Sullivan for 12 yds to the HCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
71.6%
Champ Dozier run for a loss of 3 yards to the HCU 42Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
71.7%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
71.7%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 13
OWN 42
+1
71.4%
Reed Chandley punt for 43 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 84 yds · 1:2071% → 73%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
71.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 5 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
71.4%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+47
71.3%
Brashard Smith run for 47 yds to the HCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
72.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 28 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 4INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3528% → 28%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.9%
Jesse Valenzuela run for a loss of 1 yard to the HCU 24Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
72.0%
Cutter Stewart pass intercepted Ahmaad Moses return for no gain to the SMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:0573% → 77%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
72.6%
QB Keeper JENNINGS, Kevin rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the SMU46 (FUAVAI, Ruperake;SNOW, Cameron). PENALTY SMU Holding on WILLIAMS, PJ enforced 10 yards from the SMU41 to the SMU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+4
72.3%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+6
72.3%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+22
72.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 22 yds to the HCU 37 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Yards) to the HCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
72.7%
Kevin Jennings run for 16 yds to the HCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
72.7%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the HCU 16Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+15
72.7%
Kevin Jennings run for 15 yds to the HCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.5%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:5925% → 24%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
74.8%
CJ Rogers pass complete to Collin Sullivan for 5 yds to the HCU 33Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-5
74.7%
Houston Christian Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the HCU 28Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
74.9%
Darryle Evans run for 3 yds to the HCU 31Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-4
74.9%
CJ Rogers sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the HCU 27Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 11
OWN 27
-5
75.2%
Houston Christian Penalty, Delay Of Game (Champ Dozier) to the HCU 22Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 16
OWN 22
+19
75.7%
Reed Chandley punt for 52 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 19 yds to the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:5878% → 82%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
77.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 6 yds to the HCU 49Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+6
77.6%
Brashard Smith run for 6 yds to the HCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
77.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 22 yds to the HCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
77.6%
Kevin Jennings run for 11 yds to the HCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
77.6%
Brashard Smith run for 8 yds to the HCU 2Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.3%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 8FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -9 yds · 1:0117% → 11%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.7%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the HCU 26Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
89.1%
Anthony Booker Jr. 16 Yd Fumble Return (LJ Johnson Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3111% → 9%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.1%
Cutter Stewart run for 2 yds to the HCU 27Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
89.0%
Cutter Stewart pass complete to Deuce McMillan for 5 yds to the HCU 32Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
90.3%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
90.6%
Reed Chandley punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:5089% → 89%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
89.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 35 yds to the HCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+30
90.9%
Brashard Smith run for 30 yds to the HCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
91.0%
Brashard Smith run for 11 yds to the HCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.1%
STONE, Preston pass short to the right complete for 4 yards to BAILEY, Jake caught at the HCU0 and advanced to the HCU0, out of bounds. PENALTY SMU Illegal Touch-Pass on BAILEY, Jake enforced 0 yards from the HCU4 to the HCU4, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:237% → 7%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
50
+3
92.7%
Champ Dozier run for 3 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
92.7%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+37
92.9%
Cutter Stewart pass complete to Ismael Fuller for 37 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
92.8%
Cutter Stewart pass complete to Deuce McMillan for 10 yds for a TD (Dillon Fedor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:3293% → 94%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
92.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 11 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
92.8%
Preston Stone run for 11 yds to the HCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
92.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the HCU 43Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-10
93.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 47 fumbled, recovered by HCU Braden Hay B. Hay return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:027% → 6%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.4%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
93.5%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
93.7%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
94.3%
Reed Chandley punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:1794% → 95%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
93.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.8%
JENNINGS, Kevin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Key'Shawn thrown to the SMU50. PENALTY HCU Offsides on LITTLES, Sincere enforced 5 yards from the SMU20 to the SMU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+11
93.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
94.4%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+6
94.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
94.5%
Isaac Pearson punt for 14 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 15INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:474% → 4%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
96.0%
Jesse Valenzuela run for 4 yds to the HCU 39Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
96.1%
Cutter Stewart pass intercepted Kori Roberson Jr. return for a loss of 5 yards to the HCU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:2895% → 97%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
95.3%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the HCU 38Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+4
95.2%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the HCU 34Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+4
95.2%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the HCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
95.3%
JENNINGS, Kevin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Jordan broken up by HARGROVE, Devion at the HCU0. PENALTY SMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CLARK, Jakai enforced 5 yards from the HCU30 to the HCU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+35
96.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 35 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:312% → 1%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
97.7%
Jesse Valenzuela run for a loss of 3 yards to the HCU 22Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
98.4%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+18
98.4%
Cutter Stewart pass complete to Jesse Valenzuela for 18 yds to the HCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.3%
Cutter Stewart pass complete to Ismael Fuller for 1 yd to the HCU 41Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+9
98.6%
Jesse Valenzuela run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
98.5%
Champ Dozier run for 3 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
98.5%
Champ Dozier run for 2 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
98.6%
Reed Chandley punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
98.4%
[SG] Kneel down by SMU at SMU2 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:272% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.4%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the HCU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
98.4%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the HCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
98.4%
Cutter Stewart pass complete to Collin Sullivan for 11 yds to the HCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
98.4%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the HCU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
98.4%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
98.5%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
99.0%
Reed Chandley punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:5899% → 99%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.0%
Zane Minors run for 4 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+8
99.0%
Preston Stone run for 8 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+28
99.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 28 yds to the HCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.0%
Zane Minors run for 6 yds to the HCU 39Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+2
99.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 2 yds to the HCU 37Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
99.0%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the HCU 36Similar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+11
98.9%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 11 yds to the HCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
99.0%
Derrick McFall run for 8 yds to the HCU 17Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+17
99.4%
Derrick McFall run for 17 yds for a TD (Gabriel Lozano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:231% → 0%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.5%
Champ Dozier run for 1 yd to the HCU 31Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+13
99.5%
Cutter Stewart pass complete to Champ Dozier for 13 yds to the HCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
99.5%
Champ Dozier run for 17 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
99.7%
Champ Dozier run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+4
99.7%
Cutter Stewart run for 4 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
99.7%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
99.7%
Cutter Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:24100% → 100%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
99.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Ashton Cozart for 24 yds to the HCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
99.7%
Derrick McFall run for 11 yds to the HCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Adam Moore for 4 yds to the HCU 25Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-1
99.7%
Derrick McFall run for a loss of 1 yard to the HCU 26Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+8
99.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Adam Moore for 8 yds to the HCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
99.7%
Derrick McFall run for 1 yd to the HCU 17Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-1
99.7%
Derrick McFall run for a loss of 1 yard to the HCU 18Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+10
99.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Carter Campbell for 10 yds to the HCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.8%
Derrick McFall run for 2 yds to the HCU 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds for a TD (Gabriel Lozano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the HCU 31Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the HCU 33Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-3
99.9%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the HCU 30Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Reed Chandley punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24FG
17 plays · 69 yds · 10:50100% → 100%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Derrick McFall run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.9%
Derrick McFall run for 6 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Derrick McFall run for 3 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Derrick McFall run for 3 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
Keldric Luster run for 3 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Derrick McFall run for 3 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Derrick McFall run for 4 yds to the HCU 47Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Keldric Luster run for no gain to the HCU 47Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+16
99.9%
Keldric Luster run for 16 yds to the HCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
99.9%
Keldric Luster run for a loss of 1 yard to the HCU 32Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+2
99.9%
Keldric Luster run for 2 yds to the HCU 30Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+17
99.9%
Keldric Luster run for 17 yds to the HCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
99.9%
Derrick McFall run for 2 yds to the HCU 11Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
99.9%
Derrick McFall run for 3 yds to the HCU 8Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+2
100.0%
Derrick McFall run for 2 yds to the HCU 6Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
100.0%
Collin Rogers 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
100.0%
Eli Brickhandler sacked by Matt Baer for a loss of 4 yards to the HCU 21Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-3
100.0%
Darryle Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the HCU 18Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
100.0%
Eli Brickhandler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+8
100.0%
Reed Chandley punt for 63 yds , Jaxson Lavender returns for 8 yds to the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
100.0%
Zach Hernandez run for 3 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
100.0%
Zach Hernandez run for 3 yds to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:03
Anthony Booker Jr. 16 Yd Fumble Return (LJ Johnson Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+6.4
TD · Q1 3:04
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+4.7
TD · Q1 7:07
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com