2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUCD aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUCD score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:23 · Miles Hastings pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout marginDefense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:16: Porter Connors 6 Yd Fumble Return (Hunter Ridley PAT failed) — UCD win probability +1.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:42: Lan Larison 1 Yd Run (Hunter Ridley Kick) — UCD win probability +10.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:31: Nohl Williams 80 Yd Kickoff Return (Ryan Coe Kick) — CAL win probability +12.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: M. Hastings takes a knee — CAL win probability +1.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: Defense has -4 timeouts left).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Ryan Coe kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — UCD win probability +2.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UCD made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 13:40CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snapGo for it90.2%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.2%average punt
- Q1 9:46UCD 4th & 14 at CAL 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.7%−0.118% to convertField goalTheir call10.9%58% to makePunt10.5%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:23UCD 4th & 2 at CAL 2, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.3%48% to convertField goal11.9%−0.494% to makePunt10.3%−2.0average punt
- Q2 13:45CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 34, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.5%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.6%average punt
- Q2 11:30UCD 4th & 8 at UCD 35, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it14.4%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.7%average punt
- Q2 9:44CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 35, up 1Close callPunted · 84.1% before the snapGo for it84.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.0%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:03UCD 4th & 6 at CAL 30, down 1Close callWent for it · 20.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.1%−0.340% to convertField goal20.3%56% to makePunt19.0%−1.3average punt
- Q2 0:15CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 36, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snapGo for it79.9%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UCD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:23CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two89.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:16UCD Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call14.0%97% to makeGo for two13.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:42UCD Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.3%97% to makeGo for two26.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:31CAL Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.0%97% to makeGo for two80.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCALDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1293% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 2MISSED FG10 plays · 48 yds · 3:388% → 9%
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
91.3%
PENALTY UCD False Start (Simonson,Eli) 5 yards from Cal25 to Cal30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD11 plays · 71 yds · 3:1091% → 92%
Q1 8:51
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-10
91.1%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass complete short middle to Anderson,Mavin caught at UCD38, for 15 yards to the UCD38, End Of Play PENALTY Cal Holding (Ott,Jaydn) 10 yards from Cal47 to Cal37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+3
90.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for a 1ST down UC Davis Penalty, Personal Foul (Lamont Shamburger) to the UCD 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 4DOWNS15 plays · 73 yds · 5:469% → 10%
Q1 2:52
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
89.8%
California Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (4 Yards) to the CAL 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD1 play · 4 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1589% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0612% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3187% → 86%
Q2 9:44
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+11
86.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 yds , Matteo Perez returns for 11 yds to the UCD 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 9TD12 plays · 66 yds · 4:5914% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 10DOWNS16 plays · 47 yds · 3:1115% → 16%
Q2 3:04
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+14
84.7%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Hastings,Miles pass incomplete short left to Williams,Winston thrown to UCD45 broken up by Williams,Miles, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Cal Pass Interference (Williams,Miles) 14 yards from UCD31 to UCD45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4385% → 84%
Q2 0:15
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
84.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Matteo Perez at the UCD 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 12Uncategorized1 play · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+17.7
TD · Q2 4:31
Nohl Williams 80 Yd Kickoff Return (Ryan Coe Kick)
+12.2
TD · Q2 4:42
Lan Larison 1 Yd Run (Hunter Ridley Kick)
-10.9