Try the model
TCU

TCU 34 at Stanford 27

STAN
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2024 · Stanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:40 · Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the STAN 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior−3.7Home team on offense−4.6Garbage-time factor−1.8Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:22: Josh Hoover 1 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick) — TCU win probability +20.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 6:57: Justin Lamson 1 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick) — STAN win probability +31.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:13: Jack Bech 4 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick) — TCU win probability +46.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:51: Cam Cook 7 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick) — TCU win probability +6.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:36: Emmet Kenney 45 Yd Field Goal — STAN win probability +9.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q2 14:53STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:08STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:19STAN 4th & 2 at TCU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    40.1%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−4.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:47TCU 4th & 4 at STAN 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:09TCU 4th & 4 at STAN 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−7.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:36STAN 4th & 7 at TCU 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:26TCU 4th & 7 at STAN 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−1.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:11TCU 4th & 10 at STAN 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−9.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:58STAN 4th & 4 at TCU 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−2.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:14TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:44STAN 4th & 23 at STAN 3, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−7.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:24STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−2.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:14TCU 4th & 21 at TCU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−7.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:40STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 35, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:43TCU 4th & 6 at STAN 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−14.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:14STAN 4th & 16 at STAN 19, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:36STAN 4th & 4 at TCU 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:57STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:16TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:19STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:22TCU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:57STAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:13TCU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:51TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1TD
18 plays · 89 yds · 6:5134% → 40%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
34.0%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-3
34.1%
Micah Ford run for 7 yds to the STAN 18 Stanford Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sam Roush) to the STAN 8Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 13
OWN 8
0
34.2%
Micah Ford run for no gain to the STAN 8Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 13
OWN 8
+15
34.3%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the STAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
34.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Ismael Cisse for 9 yds to the STAN 32Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+15
34.6%
Ashton Daniels run for 15 yds to the STAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
34.7%
TCU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
34.9%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Namdi Obiazor for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 16
OPP 44
-2
35.1%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 18
OPP 46
+15
35.2%
Daniels, Ashton pass sacked for loss of 4 yards to the 50 yardline (Brooks, Marcel;TEAM;TEAM), PENALTY TCU face mask (Jackson, Myles) 15 yards to the TCU31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STAN, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-9
35.9%
Ismael Cisse run for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 19
OPP 40
0
35.9%
Sedrick Irvin run for no gain to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+31
36.0%
Ashton Daniels run for 31 yds to the TCU 9 Ashton Daniels fumbled, recovered by STAN Ismael Cisse for a 1ST down , return for no gain to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
37.0%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
37.2%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the TCU 3Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.8%
Jackson Harris 3 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Emmet Kenney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:3261% → 63%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 12 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
39.3%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+17
39.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 17 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
39.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Drake Dabney for 5 yds to the STAN 40Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
39.5%
Cam Cook run for 4 yds to the STAN 36Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+7
40.0%
Cam Cook run for 7 yds to the STAN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
39.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for no gain to the STAN 29Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
40.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 5 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+5
41.1%
Josh Hoover run for 5 yds to the STAN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
40.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 18 yds to the STAN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
40.9%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 2Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
40.9%
Cam Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 5Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
37.0%
Savion Williams 5 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:5340% → 40%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
40.4%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the STAN 32Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
39.7%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
39.3%
Justin Lamson run for 2 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
40.8%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Cooper McDonald and Namdi Obiazor for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 29Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+11
40.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Jackson Harris for 11 yds to the STAN 40Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
40.8%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Micah FordSimilar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+7
39.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 50 yds , JP Richardson returns for 7 yds to the TCU 42 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TCU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:3760% → 60%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
39.8%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the TCU 12Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+18
40.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 18 yds JP Richardson fumbled, recovered by STAN Jay Green , return for 10 yds to the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:0244% → 50%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
43.5%
Ismael Cisse run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
43.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+13
42.8%
Sedrick Irvin run for 13 yds to the TCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
44.1%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the TCU 7Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
44.4%
Sedrick Irvin run for 2 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
43.7%
Sedrick Irvin run for 3 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q2 9:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.3%
Ismael Cisse 2 Yd pass from Justin Lamson (Emmet Kenney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2350% → 48%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
49.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+15
50.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 15 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
49.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
50
+7
47.8%
Cam Cook run for 7 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+6
48.3%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
48.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
49.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 4 yds to the STAN 33Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+2
49.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Blake Nowell for 2 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+3
51.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Cam Cook for 3 yds to the STAN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-6
54.0%
Ashton Daniels pass intercepted Tymon Mitchell return for 6 yds to the STAN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:1252% → 54%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
48.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 11 yds to the STAN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
48.4%
Stanford Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (David Bailey) to the STAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
48.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
48.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 1 yd to the STAN 4Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
50.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Chase CurtisSimilar
Q2 4:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
45.8%
Kyle Lemmermann 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 2:1649% → 58%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
49.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 21 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
51.8%
Micah Ford run for 12 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
52.3%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+20
52.6%
Ashton Daniels run for 20 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
53.4%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (Jack Leyrer) to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
53.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+8
52.9%
Micah Ford run for 8 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
53.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
57.7%
Emmet Kenney 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:1343% → 49%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
57.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 8 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
55.8%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+17
57.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
50
+46
55.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 46 yds to the STAN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-2
51.0%
Josh Hoover run for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 6 Josh Hoover fumbled, recovered by STAN Clay PattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
58.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 5:3642% → 44%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
58.0%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+7
58.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 7 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
58.8%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
58.7%
Hauss Hejny run for 8 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-1
57.2%
Hauss Hejny run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+17
59.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 17 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
56.9%
TCU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (James Brockermeyer) to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 25
OWN 39
0
60.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 25
OWN 39
+8
60.5%
Cam Cook run for 8 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+10
61.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 10 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 7
OPP 43
+7
61.9%
Trey Sanders run for 12 yds to the STAN 24 Trey Sanders fumbled, recovered by TCU Jack Bech for a 1ST down , return for 7 yds to the STAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
56.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
57.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
59.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
56.0%
Kyle Lemmermann 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:0258% → 61%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
58.3%
Ashton Daniels run for 29 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
62.2%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
62.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+6
60.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 6 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
60.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Ismael CisseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3944% → 42%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
55.6%
Cam Cook run for 5 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
54.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
54.8%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
58.4%
Ethan Craw punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bryce Farrell at the STAN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:2660% → 58%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
60.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 1 yd to the STAN 17Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
60.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-14
58.6%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Marcel Brooks for a loss of 14 yards to the STAN 3Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 23
OWN 3
0
57.6%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 39 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the STAN 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:1046% → 67%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
54.2%
Cam Cook run for 12 yds to the STAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
52.9%
TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (Cam Cook) to the STAN 45Similar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 25
OPP 45
+43
56.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 43 yds to the STAN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
53.0%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the STAN 1Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.0%
Josh Hoover 1 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3641% → 39%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Micah Ford for 1 yd to the STAN 26Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
41.1%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 24Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+3
39.1%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 3 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+10
38.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 38 yds , JP Richardson returns for 10 yds to the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:0365% → 58%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
35.5%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-11
36.2%
Josh Hoover sacked by Tristan Sinclair for a loss of 11 yards to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 21
OWN 34
0
40.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 21
OWN 34
0
41.6%
Ethan Craw punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Farrell at the STAN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:2042% → 40%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
42.1%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 5 yds to the STAN 35Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
44.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Ismael CisseSimilar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
41.3%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+2
40.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the STAN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20MISSED FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4765% → 64%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
34.7%
Savion Williams run for 7 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+5
32.8%
Cam Cook run for 5 yds to the STAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
30.8%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
31.3%
Josh Hoover run for 4 yds to the STAN 21Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
32.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
36.0%
Kyle Lemmermann 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:2340% → 79%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
40.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 11 yds to the STAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
40.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 5 yds to the STAN 37Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+8
41.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 8 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
42.0%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 38Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+18
39.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 3 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Abe Camara) to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
44.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 8 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
44.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+29
44.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 29 yds to the TCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
46.9%
Sedrick Irvin run for 6 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
47.0%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.7%
Justin Lamson 1 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:2633% → 82%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
66.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 13 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+34
64.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 34 yds to the STAN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
58.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 3 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+6
60.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 6 yds to the STAN 18Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+3
62.7%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the STAN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
63.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 7 yds to the STAN 8Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+4
64.4%
Cam Cook run for 4 yds to the STAN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.3%
Jack Bech 4 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5436% → 28%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Jackson HarrisSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
35.3%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Tiger BachmeierSimilar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
33.4%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Marcel Brooks and Devean Deal for a loss of 6 yards to the STAN 19Similar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
28.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:1684% → 96%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
15.9%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the STAN 18Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+11
11.5%
Cam Cook run for 11 yds to the STAN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
11.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
4.3%
Cam Cook 7 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:105% → 16%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Micah FordSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
4.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 27 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
6.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Ismael Cisse for 6 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+9
6.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Micah Ford for 9 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
7.6%
Ashton Daniels run for 6 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
7.8%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Ismael CisseSimilar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
6.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
16.0%
Emmet Kenney 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:1595% → 95%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 46Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 13
OPP 46
-2
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 48Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 15
OPP 48
-3
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:13
Jack Bech 4 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)
-46.1
TD · Q4 6:57
Justin Lamson 1 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)
+31.7
TD · Q3 2:22
Josh Hoover 1 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)
-20
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com