2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadYSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreYSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · Cephus Harris III run for no gain to the PITT 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 12:33: Andrew Lastovka 46 yd FG GOOD — YSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: YSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:08: Daniel Carter run for 43 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +1.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:52: Beau Brungard pass complete to Cyrus Traugh for 25 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK) — YSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: YSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:34: Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 82 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +4.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:23: Beau Brungard pass complete to Cyrus Traugh for 44 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK) — YSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: YSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4YSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 9:08YSU 4th & 28 at YSU 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q1 6:46YSU 4th & 11 at YSU 18, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q1 4:38PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 48, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt95.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:33YSU 4th & 5 at PITT 28, down 21Close callKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.4%41% to convertField goalTheir call3.3%−<0.160% to makePunt2.6%−0.8average punt
- Q2 4:35YSU 4th & 3 at PITT 45, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%52% to convertField goal1.3%−0.125% to makePunt1.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:20PITT 4th & 28 at PITT 5, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q3 6:52PITT 4th & 9 at YSU 31, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%54% to makePunt98.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 4:48YSU 4th & 5 at YSU 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 13:30YSU 4th & 11 at PITT 48, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 6:26YSU 4th & 13 at YSU 22, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:35PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 43, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10YSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:27PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:30PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:33PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:34PITT Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:08PITT Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:52YSU Touchdown, down 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.7%97% to makeGo for two1.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:34PITT Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:23YSU Touchdown, down 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.1%97% to makeGo for two1.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:32PITT Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:30PITT Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:36PITT Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:35PITT Touchdown, up 55 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPITTDrive 1TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3296% → 96%
Q1 14:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
95.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 5 yds to the PITT 33Similar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
95.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 9 yds to the PITT 45Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+14
95.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Derrick Davis Jr. for 14 yds to the YSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
95.4%
(11:39) DAVIS JR., Derrick rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the YSU0, TOUCHDOWN PITT, score nullified by penalty, clock 11:40 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY Before the snap, PITT Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the YSU1 to the YSU6. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.5%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -18 yds · 2:195% → 5%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.4%
Youngstown State Penalty, Illegal Snap on PARKER, Aidan enforced (-5 Yards) to the YSU 15Similar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-18
95.4%
run for a loss of 18 yards to the YSU 2 fumbled, recovered by YSU return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 28
OWN 7
+17
95.2%
Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 52 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for 17 yds to the YSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD2 plays · 42 yds · 0:2695% → 96%
YSUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:365% → 5%
Q1 6:46
4TH & 11
OWN 18
+12
95.5%
Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 55 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for 12 yds to the PITT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD7 plays · 61 yds · 3:0196% → 96%
YSUDrive 6FG13 plays · 47 yds · 5:564% → 5%
Q1 2:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
96.3%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 9 yds to the YSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
96.5%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Ethan Wright for 9 yds to the PITT 48Similar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
96.4%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Cyrus Traugh for 12 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
96.4%
Youngstown State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the PITT 47Similar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 17
OPP 40
+5
96.6%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Luke Hensley for 5 yds to the PITT 35Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-5
96.5%
Youngstown State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the PITT 40Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+11
96.7%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Ethan Wright for 11 yds to the PITT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD5 plays · 74 yds · 1:5196% → 96%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+25
95.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 25 yds to the YSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+31
95.8%
Youngstown State Penalty, Personal Foul (31 Yards) to the YSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
95.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the YSU 10Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
95.5%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 10 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 8INT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:025% → 5%
PITTDrive 9TD2 plays · 43 yds · 0:1497% → 98%
YSUDrive 10TD12 plays · 75 yds · 6:131% → 5%
Q2 7:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
98.4%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Richard Dandridge for 17 yds to the YSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+6
98.5%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 6 yds to the PITT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
98.6%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 11 yds to the PITT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+25
95.0%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Cyrus Traugh for 25 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD1 play · 82 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+82
99.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 82 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 12END OF HALF7 plays · 3 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q2 1:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
99.3%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 14 yds to the YSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
99.1%
(01:04) BRUNGARD, Beau pass short to the left incomplete intended for SECHREST, Colt broken up by BASS, Jordan at the YSU45; QB hurried by GEORGE, Brandon, clock 01:00. PENALTY YSU Chop Block on KING, Tyshon enforced 15 yards from the YSU42 to the YSU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 13FUMBLE8 plays · 60 yds · 3:031% → 1%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
99.2%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Jawon Hall for 24 yds to the YSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
99.2%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Rasheem Biles) to the PITT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+22
99.2%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Tyshon King for 22 yds to the PITT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
99.4%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Ethan Wright for a loss of 5 yards Ethan Wright fumbled, recovered by PITT Rashad Battle R. Battle return for 8 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -18 yds · 1:2499% → 100%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
99.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 22Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-17
99.5%
Eli Holstein sacked by Jaelen Crider for a loss of 17 yards to the PITT 5Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 28
OWN 5
0
99.5%
Caleb Junko punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Traugh at the PITT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 15TD2 plays · 47 yds · 0:511% → 3%
PITTDrive 16FG8 plays · 37 yds · 2:2299% → 100%
Q3 8:55
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+15
99.1%
(08:55) HOLSTEIN, Eli pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MUMPFIELD, Konata thrown to the YSU16, clock 08:50. PENALTY YSU Pass Interference on EDWARDS, Payton enforced 15 yards to the YSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q3 6:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-15
99.7%
(06:04) BRUNGARD, Beau pass to the left complete for 7 yards to TRAUGH, Cyrus caught at the YSU36 and advanced to the YSU37 (LYNUM, Tamon), out of bounds, clock 06:03. PENALTY YSU Personal Foul on WILLIAMS, Jaison enforced 15 yards from the YSU30 to the YSU15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+15
99.7%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Ethan Wright for 15 yds to the YSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD9 plays · 83 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
Q3 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
99.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 6 yds to the PITT 23Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+5
99.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 5 yds to the PITT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 5 yds to the PITT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.9%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Targeting on O'BRIEN JR., Phillip enforced (Phillip O'Brien Jr.) to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
99.9%
Youngstown State Penalty, Illegal Snap on PARKER, Aidan enforced (Aidan Parker) to the YSU 48Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+6
99.9%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 6 yds to the PITT 48Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD9 plays · 92 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
99.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 13 yds to the PITT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 15 yds to the YSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+14
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 14 yds to the YSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Censere Lee for 15 yds to the YSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Daniel Carter for 13 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 21INT TD4 plays · 10 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 10:02
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+1
99.9%
Max Blanc pass complete to Richard Dandridge for 1 yd to the YSU 14Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+4
99.9%
Max Blanc pass complete to Andrew Jacobs for 4 yds to the YSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-22
100.0%
Max Blanc pass intercepted Tamarion Crumpley return for 22 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
100.0%
Youngstown State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the YSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23TD8 plays · 85 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q4 5:48
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+13
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Che Nwabuko for 13 yds to the PITT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+12
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Zion Fowler-El for 12 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+7
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Benny Haselrig for 7 yds to the PITT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 24END OF GAME7 plays · 38 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q4 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
100.0%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jeremiah Marcelin) to the YSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:34
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 82 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q2 1:52
Beau Brungard pass complete to Cyrus Traugh for 25 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)
-4
TD · Q3 9:23
Beau Brungard pass complete to Cyrus Traugh for 44 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)
-1.9