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SDST

South Dakota State 20 at Oklahoma State 44

OKST
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadSDST aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreSDST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:40 · Hunter Dustman punt for 43 yds , Brennan Presley returns for no gain to the OKST 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense+19.7Pregame prior+12.1Score differential+7.2Garbage-time factor+5.8Blowout margin+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:35: Ollie Gordon II run for 12 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK) — OKST win probability +4.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:46: Ollie Gordon II 22 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick) — OKST win probability +8.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:10: Grahm Goering 21 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick) — SDST win probability +9.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: SDST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:29: Rashod Owens 58 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick) — OKST win probability +7.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:51: Ollie Gordon II run for 10 yds to the SDST 1 for a 1ST down — OKST win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 10SDST made the numbers' call on 6 of 12
  1. Q1 11:27SDST 4th & 2 at OKST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:39OKST 4th & 3 at SDST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:15OKST 4th & 4 at SDST 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.2%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:15SDST 4th & 3 at OKST 13, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%−0.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:52SDST 4th & 4 at OKST 30, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.4%−0.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:58OKST 4th & 5 at SDST 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:14SDST 4th & 11 at SDST 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:04OKST 4th & 3 at SDST 36, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    83.0%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:40SDST 4th & 24 at SDST 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−2.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:40SDST 4th & 24 at SDST 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−2.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:51SDST 4th & 6 at SDST 40, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:51SDST 4th & 6 at SDST 40, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:50OKST 4th & 5 at SDST 35, up 32
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:10OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 27, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:10OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 27, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:17SDST 4th & 7 at SDST 25, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:17SDST 4th & 7 at SDST 25, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:41OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 33, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:50SDST 4th & 7 at OKST 47, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:52OKST 4th & 12 at OKST 45, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:06SDST 4th & 6 at SDST 24, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:10OKST 4th & 3 at SDST 8, up 32
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SDST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:03OKST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:35OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:46OKST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:10SDST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:29OKST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSTDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:2118% → 19%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
82.2%
Amar Johnson run for 3 yds to the SDST 26Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+10
82.0%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Griffin Wilde for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
81.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Amar Johnson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
81.6%
Mark Gronowski run for 5 yds to the OKST 46Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+3
81.3%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Davin StoffelSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
81.1%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
81.2%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:5881% → 81%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
81.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
81.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+10
81.2%
Ollie Gordon II run for 10 yds to the SDST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
81.3%
Brennan Presley run for 4 yds to the SDST 40Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
81.3%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the SDST 37Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
81.2%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+6
81.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
81.2%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
81.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
80.8%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
81.0%
Logan Ward 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 3INT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:3119% → 20%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.9%
Angel Johnson run for 8 yds to the SDST 33Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-7
80.4%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Angel JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
80.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Griffin Wilde for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
80.1%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Angel JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+1
80.0%
Amar Johnson run for 1 yd to the SDST 40Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
80.0%
Mark Gronowski pass intercepted Korie Black return for no gain to the SDST 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:2781% → 83%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
80.6%
Ollie Gordon II run for 10 yds to the SDST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
80.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the SDST 33Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+6
80.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
80.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Gavin FreemanSimilar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+8
80.4%
Alan Bowman run for 8 yds to the SDST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
80.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to De'Zhaun StriblingSimilar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
82.7%
Brennan Presley 6 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 5FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 4:3418% → 20%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
81.8%
Mark Gronowski run for 3 yds to the SDST 26Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+4
82.0%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Amar JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+40
82.2%
Amar Johnson run for 40 yds to the OKST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
80.7%
Mark Gronowski run for 10 yds to the OKST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
80.4%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+13
80.8%
Amar Johnson run for 13 yds to the OKST 17Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
80.6%
Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd to the OKST 16Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+31
80.2%
Hunter Dustman 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:2681% → 87%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
81.3%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the OKST 26Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+16
81.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
82.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the OKST 45Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
82.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+4
81.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the SDST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
82.2%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the SDST 41Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+8
82.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Sesi Vailahi for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
82.4%
Sesi Vailahi run for 3 yds to the SDST 30Similar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
87.3%
Ollie Gordon II run for 12 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 7FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:2515% → 17%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
85.4%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Grahm Goering for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
84.9%
Angel Johnson run for no gain to the OKST 46Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
85.2%
Mark Gronowski run for 6 yds to the OKST 40Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+4
85.1%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Griffin Wilde for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
85.2%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
85.2%
Mark Gronowski run for 5 yds to the OKST 31Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+1
83.8%
Amar Johnson run for 1 yd to the OKST 30Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+48
83.5%
Hunter Dustman 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:3984% → 85%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
83.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
84.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the OKST 35Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+17
84.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
85.4%
Ollie Gordon II run for 1 yd to the SDST 47Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
85.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon IISimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+4
85.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
84.9%
Hudson Kaak punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:3215% → 15%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
84.7%
Amar Johnson run for 8 yds to the SDST 11Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+10
84.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Grahm Goering for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
84.6%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
84.8%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+1
85.4%
Angel Johnson run for 1 yd to the SDST 20Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
85.3%
Hunter Dustman punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
86.1%
Sesi Vailahi run for 3 yds to the OKST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:0886% → 94%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
85.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 9 yds to the OKST 44Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
86.6%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the OKST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
86.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to De'Zhaun StriblingSimilar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
86.8%
Sesi Vailahi run for 1 yd to the SDST 45Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
86.4%
Sesi Vailahi run for 2 yds to the SDST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
86.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for 9 yds to the SDST 34Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
87.0%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
86.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the SDST 36Similar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+14
86.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
94.4%
Ollie Gordon II 22 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:218% → 17%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
91.7%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Griffin Wilde for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+33
92.6%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Griffin Wilde for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
82.7%
Grahm Goering 21 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:2687% → 95%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
86.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for 1 yd to the OKST 20Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
86.9%
Alan Bowman run for no gain to the OKST 20Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+10
86.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
87.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
88.0%
Trent Howland run for 2 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+58
95.3%
Rashod Owens 58 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 0:436% → 6%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
94.0%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-4
94.1%
Mark Gronowski sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 4 yards to the SDST 11Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
94.4%
Hunter Dustman punt for 43 yds , Brennan Presley returns for no gain to the OKST 44Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
94.4%
Hunter Dustman punt for 43 yds , Brennan Presley returns for no gain to the OKST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:3796% → 99%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
95.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
95.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the SDST 26Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
95.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 5 yds to the SDST 21Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+6
95.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 6 yds to the SDST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
96.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the SDST 11Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+10
99.2%
Ollie Gordon II run for 10 yds to the SDST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:260% → 0%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.7%
Amar Johnson run for 2 yds to the SDST 26Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+10
99.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Griffin Wilde for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.8%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Davin StoffelSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Chase Mason run for no gain to the SDST 40Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.8%
Sesi Vailahi run for 1 yd to the SDST 39Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Gavin FreemanSimilar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+52
99.8%
Logan Ward 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 18TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.8%
Angel Johnson run for 6 yds to the SDST 28Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+12
99.8%
Angel Johnson run for 12 yds to the SDST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
99.8%
Griffin Wilde 60 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the OKST 27Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Hudson Kaak punt for 73 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Hudson Kaak punt for 73 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
99.9%
Angel Johnson run for 2 yds to the SDST 12Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+10
99.9%
(10:20) Shotgun Gronowski,Mark pass incomplete deep left to Wilde,Griffin thrown to SDSU38 PENALTY OSU Holding (Smith,Cam) 10 yards from SDSU12 to SDSU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Mark Gronowski run for 3 yds to the SDST 25Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Hunter Dustman punt for 53 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for 2 yds to the OKST 24Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Hunter Dustman punt for 53 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for 2 yds to the OKST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
99.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for 8 yds to the OKST 32Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+1
99.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for 1 yd to the OKST 33Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the OKST 33Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Hudson Kaak punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tucker Large at the SDST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
99.9%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Grahm GoeringSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Greyton Gannon for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Amar Johnson run for 2 yds to the SDST 40Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+10
99.9%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Kentrell Prejean to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 10
50
+3
99.9%
Amar Johnson run for 3 yds to the OKST 47Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the OKST 45Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Hudson Kaak punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Mark Gronowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to Greyton GannonSimilar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 6
OWN 24
-9
99.9%
Mark Gronowski sacked by Nick Martin for a loss of 9 yards to the SDST 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
99.9%
Trent Howland run for 3 yds to the SDST 12Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
99.9%
Trent Howland run for 2 yds to the SDST 10Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+2
100.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Trent HowlandSimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
99.9%
Logan Ward 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Kirby Vorhees run for 3 yds to the SDST 28Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Kirby Vorhees run for 4 yds to the SDST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:10
Grahm Goering 21 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)
-9.9
TD · Q3 10:46
Ollie Gordon II 22 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)
+8.3
TD · Q3 6:29
Rashod Owens 58 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com