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Missouri State 34 at Ball State 42

BALL
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadMOST aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreMOST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+18.2BALL 59.6%Malcolm Gillie 41 Yd pass from KadinSemonza (Jackson Courville Kick)AWAY 14 - HOME 14 · Q3 2:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:31 · Malcolm Gillie 41 Yd pass from Kadin Semonza (Jackson Courville Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense+2.8Pregame prior+2.2Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Time remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:50: Jacardia Wright 5 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick) — MOST win probability +19.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:31: Malcolm Gillie 41 Yd pass from Kadin Semonza (Jackson Courville Kick) — BALL win probability +18.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:55: Braedon Sloan 11 Yd pass from Kadin Semonza (Jackson Courville Kick) — BALL win probability +21.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:35: Lance Mason 57 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick) — MOST win probability +12.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:13: Jmariyae Robinson 14 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick) — MOST win probability +10.6 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MOST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:39BALL 4th & 15 at BALL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:35MOST 4th & 17 at BALL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:58BALL 4th & 8 at MOST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−4.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:38MOST 4th & 10 at MOST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:45MOST 4th & 6 at MOST 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:06BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.1%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48MOST 4th & 3 at BALL 41, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%−1.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:12BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:43MOST 4th & 17 at MOST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−3.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:23BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:51MOST 4th & 10 at MOST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:39BALL 4th & 3 at MOST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−3.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:31BALL 4th & 3 at MOST 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−3.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MOST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 5:59MOST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:19BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:50MOST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:31BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:49BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:35MOST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:03BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:57MOST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:00BALL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:13MOST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 4:2058% → 58%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
57.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 12 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
57.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for no gain to the BALL 37Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
57.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the BALL 39Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+12
57.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 12 yds to the MOST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
58.1%
Kadin Semonza sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the BALL 48Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+3
58.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 3 yds to the MOST 49Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
58.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for no gain to the MOST 49Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+5
57.8%
Missouri State Penalty, false start (5 Yards) to the BALL 46Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
57.7%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:0042% → 42%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+44
57.8%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 44 yds to the BALL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
57.3%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to James BlackStrainSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
57.3%
Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the BALL 38Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-11
57.4%
Jacob Clark sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the BALL 49Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 17
OPP 49
+12
57.9%
Grant Burkett punt for 39 yds , Qian Magwood returns for 12 yds to the BALL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:2658% → 56%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
57.9%
Braedon Sloan run for 7 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+6
58.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
58.0%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the BALL 37Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+19
58.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 19 yds to the MOST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-59
55.6%
P.J. Hall 59 Yd Interception Return (Yousef Obeid Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4MISSED FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 6:0155% → 53%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.5%
Braedon Sloan run for 5 yds to the BALL 30Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
54.4%
Braedon Sloan run for 4 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
54.3%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the BALL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
54.0%
Cam Pickett run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
50
+9
54.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Maximus Webster for 9 yds to the MOST 41Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
54.9%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete to Malcolm Gillie, broken up by Dylan SimmonsSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+7
54.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 7 yds to the MOST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
54.8%
Tj Horton run for 11 yds to the MOST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
54.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for a loss of 3 yards to the MOST 26Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+6
54.2%
Braedon Sloan run for 6 yds to the MOST 20Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-1
53.6%
Kadin Semonza sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 21Similar
Q2 14:58
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
52.5%
Jackson Courville 38 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1749% → 48%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
51.4%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Hunter WoodSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
51.5%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Jmariyae RobinsonSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
52.0%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Hunter Wood, broken up by Jordan ColemanSimilar
Q2 14:38
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
52.4%
Grant Burkett punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 5:0553% → 59%
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
52.7%
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the BALL 44Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+6
52.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 3
50
+17
52.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 17 yds to the MOST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
53.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 7 yds to the MOST 26Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+5
53.6%
Missouri State Penalty, off-side (Sterling Smithson) to the MOST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
53.5%
Kadin Semonza run for 5 yds to the MOST 16Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+6
53.4%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 6 yds to the MOST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
53.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 11Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-4
53.2%
Cam Pickett run for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 15Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
59.3%
Kadin Semonza 15 Yd Run (Jackson Courville Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3243% → 44%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
56.8%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Lance Mason for 19 yds to the MOST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
55.1%
Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the MOST 46Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-5
54.9%
Jacardia Wright run for a loss of 5 yards to the MOST 41Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 13
OWN 41
-5
55.7%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Jmariyae Robinson Missouri State Penalty, off-side (-5 Yards) to the MOST 46Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+2
54.9%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 2 yds to the MOST 48Similar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
55.8%
Grant Burkett punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:3859% → 59%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
58.7%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the BALL 31Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
58.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 8 yds to the BALL 39Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
59.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the BALL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.2%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
59.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 5 yds to the BALL 45Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
60.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 4 yds to the BALL 49Similar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 1
OWN 49
-1
59.3%
Braedon Sloan run for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1448% → 47%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
52.4%
Jacob Clark run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 12
50
+8
53.1%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 8 yds to the BALL 42Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+1
51.9%
Jayden Becks run for 1 yd to the BALL 41 Jayden Becks fumbled, recovered by MOST Jayden BecksSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
53.3%
Grant Burkett punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2758% → 56%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
58.1%
Braedon Sloan run for 4 yds to the BALL 17Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+18
58.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 18 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.7%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete to Cam PickettSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
58.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for a loss of 5 yards to the BALL 30Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+6
56.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 6 yds to the BALL 36Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+2
56.4%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 45 yds , Hunter Wood returns for 2 yds to the MOST 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
54.8%
Jacardia Wright run for 6 yds to the BALL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1145% → 43%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
54.9%
Jacardia Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 23Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
55.1%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Gary ClintonSimilar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 11
OWN 23
-6
56.4%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jacardia Wright for a loss of 6 yards to the MOST 17Similar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
57.4%
Grant Burkett punt for 53 yds , Qian Magwood returns for no gain to the BALL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1259% → 57%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
58.9%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the BALL 32Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
59.0%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
58.0%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete to Cam Pickett, broken up by Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
56.9%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 42 yds , Hunter Wood returns for no gain to the MOST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1945% → 42%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
55.2%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Jmariyae RobinsonSimilar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
55.5%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Lance Mason, broken up by Jackson WiegoldSimilar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
56.6%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to DVontae Key, broken up by Myles NorwoodSimilar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+4
57.9%
Grant Burkett punt for 48 yds , Qian Magwood returns for 4 yds to the BALL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:0859% → 60%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
58.5%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete to Cam Pickett Missouri State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Thomas Anderson) to the BALL 49Similar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
61.2%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 2 yds to the MOST 49Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+4
61.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 4 yds to the MOST 45Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+1
61.3%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the MOST 44Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 3
OPP 44
-9
59.5%
Kadin Semonza sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the BALL 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:4549% → 69%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
51.3%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 6 yds to the BALL 41Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
50.8%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 1 yd to the BALL 40Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
51.1%
Jacob Clark run for 4 yds to the BALL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
51.0%
Jacob Clark pass complete to DVontae Key for 7 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
49.4%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to DVontae KeySimilar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
51.0%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 5 yds to the BALL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
49.2%
Jacardia Wright run for a loss of 5 yards to the BALL 29Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+24
51.1%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 24 yds to the BALL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
31.4%
Jacardia Wright 5 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1638% → 60%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
38.4%
Tj Horton run for 12 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
39.3%
Pemberton,Vaughn rush left (Hall,P.J.).Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
38.5%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 5 yds to the BALL 42Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-10
39.2%
Kadin Semonza pass intercepted by Lemondre Joe, Missouri State Penalty, Defensive holding (P.J. Hall) to the MOST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
41.9%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the MOST 45Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
41.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 4 yds to the MOST 41Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
41.4%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete to Isaiah Thacker, broken up by Dylan SimmonsSimilar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+41
59.6%
Malcolm Gillie 41 Yd pass from Kadin Semonza (Jackson Courville Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:5764% → 64%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
63.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 1 yd to the MOST 26Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+4
63.8%
Braedon Sloan run for 4 yds to the MOST 22Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+9
62.2%
Kadin Semonza run for 9 yds to the MOST 13 Kadin Semonza fumbled, recovered by BALL Cam Pickett for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
64.0%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the MOST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:1115% → 22%
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
85.1%
Braedon Sloan 11 Yd pass from Kadin Semonza (Jackson Courville Kick)Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.5%
Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the MOST 29Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
75.9%
Jayden Becks run for 9 yds to the MOST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
77.8%
Jacob Clark pass intercepted Joey Stemler fumbled, recovered by BALL Keionte NewsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:4686% → 94%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
85.6%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete to Cam PickettSimilar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
85.5%
Braedon Sloan run for 7 yds to the MOST 34Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+21
85.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 21 yds to the MOST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
86.7%
Tj Horton run for a loss of 3 yards to the MOST 16Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 13
OPP 16
0
86.7%
Kadin Semonza pass incomplete to Braedon Sloan, broken up by Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+16
94.2%
Qian Magwood 16 Yd pass from Kadin Semonza (Jackson Courville Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 21TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:079% → 21%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
91.0%
Jacardia Wright run for 6 yds to the MOST 23Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+9
90.4%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dylan Simmons for 9 yds to the MOST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
90.6%
Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the MOST 34Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+9
91.3%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dylan Simmons for 9 yds to the MOST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
79.2%
Lance Mason 57 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:2288% → 96%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
88.0%
pass incomplete to Cam PickettSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
87.8%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 6 yds to the MOST 41Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+33
87.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 33 yds to the MOST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
89.0%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 3 yds to the MOST 5Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
90.1%
pass incomplete to Cam PickettSimilar
Q4 7:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.1%
K. Semonza pass to T. Koziol for 5 yds for a TD (J. Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 23INT
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:557% → 6%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.5%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Gary Clinton, broken up by Aj TaylorSimilar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
93.5%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Gary Clinton for 7 yds to the MOST 29Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-5
93.5%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Dash Luke for a 1ST down Missouri State Penalty, off-side (-5 Yards) to the MOST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
93.5%
Jacardia Wright run for 5 yds to the MOST 39Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+16
93.3%
Jacardia Wright run for 16 yds to the BALL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
93.3%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Gary Clinton, broken up by Keionte NewsonSimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
93.3%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 13 yds to the BALL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
94.2%
Jacardia Wright run for 3 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-12
94.0%
Jacob Clark pass intercepted for a 1ST down Ball State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jack Beebe) to the BALL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 24TD
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:416% → 13%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
94.1%
Jayden Becks run for 4 yds to the BALL 13Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+1
94.2%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jayden Becks for 1 yd to the BALL 12Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-5
94.7%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for no gain to the BALL 12 Missouri State Penalty, illegal forward pass (Jacob Clark) to the BALL 17Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+5
95.3%
Ball State Penalty, off-side (Darin Conley) to the BALL 12Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+5
95.1%
Ball State Penalty, off-side (5 Yards) to the BALL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
94.3%
Jacardia Wright run for 6 yds to the BALL 1Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
94.3%
Jacardia Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the BALL 3Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.9%
J. Robinson run for 3 yds for a TD (Y. Obeid PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:5696% → 98%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
96.0%
Braedon Sloan run for 5 yds to the MOST 41Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
96.0%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the MOST 40Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+40
98.4%
Braedon Sloan 40 Yd Run (Jackson Courville Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 26TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:473% → 14%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.4%
Jacob Clark run for 8 yds to the MOST 33Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
97.2%
Jacob Clark pass complete to DVontae Key for 11 yds to the MOST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
97.2%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Hunter Wood for 27 yds to the BALL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
96.3%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Dylan Simmons for a 1ST down Ball State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Myles Norwood) to the BALL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
96.3%
pass incomplete to Hunter WoodSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
85.7%
Jmariyae Robinson 14 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:55
Braedon Sloan 11 Yd pass from Kadin Semonza (Jackson Courville Kick)
+21.2
TD · Q3 5:50
Jacardia Wright 5 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)
-19.7
TD · Q3 2:31
Malcolm Gillie 41 Yd pass from Kadin Semonza (Jackson Courville Kick)
+18.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com