2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadINST aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreINST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:33 · Harry Traum punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:07: Max Klare 9 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Spencer Porath Kick) — INST win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:21: Hudson Card pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 8 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK) — PUR win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:29: Hudson Card pass complete to De'Nylon Morrissette for 8 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK) — PUR win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 14:54: Hudson Card pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 20 yds to the INST 46 for a 1ST down — PUR win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:43: Reggie Love III run for 6 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK) — PUR win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4INST made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 12:48INST 4th & 4 at INST 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q1 6:59INST 4th & 6 at INST 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q1 1:26INST 4th & 11 at INST 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q2 11:42INST 4th & 9 at INST 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q2 5:17INST 4th & 12 at PUR 42, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−<0.124% to convertField goal1.8%−<0.130% to makePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 1:46PUR 4th & 12 at PUR 33, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.1%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%average punt
- Q3 10:43PUR 4th & 1 at INST 6, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.5%69% to convertField goal98.2%−0.391% to makePunt97.5%−0.9average punt
- Q3 8:05INST 4th & 16 at INST 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 4:20INST 4th & 12 at INST 23, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 2:00PUR 4th & 14 at PUR 46, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 13:33INST 4th & 16 at midfield, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:20INST 4th & 6 at INST 29, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:03PUR 4th & 21 at PUR 41, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 3:44INST 4th & 6 at INST 20, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 9:07PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:21PUR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:29PUR Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:43PUR Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:10PUR Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:13PUR Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:56PUR Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartINSTDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:122% → 2%
PURDrive 2TD8 plays · 55 yds · 3:4198% → 98%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
97.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 11 yds to the INST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
97.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 12 yds to the INST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+8
97.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for 8 yds to the INST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
97.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Drew Biber for 6 yds to the INST 4Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
97.6%
Hudson Card sacked by Geoffrey Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the INST 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 2:083% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4FUMBLE8 plays · 53 yds · 2:5197% → 97%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
97.3%
Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for 12 yds to the PUR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+12
97.3%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 12 yds to the PUR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+19
97.2%
Hudson Card pass complete to De'Nylon Morrissette for 19 yds to the INST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
97.1%
Hudson Card pass complete to Drew Biber for 2 yds fumbled, forced by Maddix Blackwell, recovered by INST Garret Ollendieck G. Ollendieck return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:423% → 3%
Q1 1:26
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
96.6%
Harry Traum punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dillon Thieneman at the PUR 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6TD7 plays · 76 yds · 3:0597% → 97%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
96.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 2 yds to the PUR 26Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+8
96.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Shamar Rigby for 8 yds to the PUR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+43
96.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for 43 yds to the INST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
97.3%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 8 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:343% → 3%
Q2 11:42
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
96.7%
Harry Traum punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dillon Thieneman at the PUR 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8TD3 plays · 57 yds · 1:1397% → 98%
Q2 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.3%
Hudson Card pass complete to De'Nylon Morrissette for 8 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 43 yds · 5:072% → 2%
Q2 9:10
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+15
98.0%
OWENS, Elijah pass up the middle incomplete dropped by NEUENSCHWANDER, Nick thrown to the ISU30. PENALTY PUR Roughing the Passer on SILLAH, Shitta enforced 15 yards from the ISU33 to the ISU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 11
OPP 41
-1
97.9%
Elijah Owens sacked by Kydran Jenkins for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10PUNT12 plays · 13 yds · 3:3198% → 98%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
98.5%
(03:55) CARD, Hudson pass deep up the middle complete for 27 yards to EDRINE, Jahmal caught at the ISU38 and advanced to the ISU38 (KING, Trey). PENALTY PUR Holding on SALES JR., Joshua enforced 10 yards from the PUR35 to the PUR25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+3
98.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 3 yds to the PUR 28Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 17
OWN 28
-10
98.5%
(03:00) CARD, Hudson pass deep up the middle complete for 34 yards to KLARE, Max caught at the ISU43 and advanced to the ISU38 (BLACKWELL, Maddix). PENALTY PUR Holding on COLY, Bakyne enforced 10 yards from the PUR28 to the PUR18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 27
OWN 18
+13
98.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to Drew Biber for 13 yds to the PUR 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 11MISSED FG10 plays · 49 yds · 1:462% → 2%
Q2 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+15
98.1%
Purdue Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jeffrey M'Ba) to the INST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+1
97.9%
Elijah Owens pass complete to Zavion Taylor for 1 yd to the INST 46Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+8
98.0%
Elijah Owens pass complete to Rashad Rochelle for 8 yds to the PUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12TD10 plays · 66 yds · 4:1199% → 100%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
98.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 20 yds to the INST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-1
98.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for a loss of 1 yard to the INST 43Similar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
98.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 16 yds to the INST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
98.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 5 yds to the INST 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:380% → 0%
PURDrive 14TD4 plays · 50 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q3 7:44
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-10
99.8%
Purdue Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jahmal Edrine) to the INST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+16
99.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to Leland Smith for 16 yds to the INST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to Leland Smith for 31 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q3 4:20
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Harry Traum punt for 40 yds , Dillon Thieneman returns for 2 yds to the PUR 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q3 2:48
3RD & 23
OWN 37
+9
99.8%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Jayden Dixon-Veal for 9 yds to the PUR 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 3:090% → 0%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.9%
Elijah Owens pass complete to Rashad Rochelle for 15 yds to the INST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+23
99.9%
Elijah Owens pass complete to Matt Ross for 23 yds to the PUR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
99.9%
Elijah Owens sacked by Will Heldt for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-10
99.9%
(15:00) OWENS, Elijah pass short up the middle incomplete intended for RIOS, Kai thrown to the PUR40. PENALTY ISU Holding on TODT, Alex enforced 10 yards from the PUR45 to the ISU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18TD5 plays · 91 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
INSTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q4 9:20
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+14
99.9%
Harry Traum punt for 49 yds , Andrew Sowinski returns for 14 yds to the PUR 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.9%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Andrew Sowinski for 8 yds to the PUR 44Similar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
99.9%
QB Keeper BROWNE, Ryan rush up the middle for a gain of 36 yards to the ISU12 (BENNETT, Shane). PENALTY PUR Holding on GRIFFIN, Luke enforced 10 yards from the ISU48 to the PUR42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+12
99.9%
Ryan Browne pass complete to Andrew Sowinski for 12 yds to the INST 46Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
99.9%
BROWNE, Ryan pass deep to the left complete for 32 yards to BRANCH, Arhmad caught at the ISU15 and advanced to the ISU14, out of bounds. PENALTY PUR Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GRANT, Jalen declined PUR Holding on GRIFFIN, Luke enforced 10 yards from the ISU46 to the PUR44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 18
OWN 44
-3
99.9%
Ryan Browne sacked by Dallas Westhoff for a loss of 3 yards to the PUR 41Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 21
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Rashad Rochelle at the INST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:190% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22TD6 plays · 35 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
INSTDrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · 6 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:29
Hudson Card pass complete to De'Nylon Morrissette for 8 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q3 10:43
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 13:21
Hudson Card pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 8 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
+0.9