Try the model
SUU

Southern Utah 27 at UTEP 24

UTEP
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Sun Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadSUU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreSUU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:50 · Daniel King 39 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 89Pregame prior+7.8Home team on offense+10.1Garbage-time factor+0.9Score differential+4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Time remaining+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:31: Targhee Lambson 20 Yd Run (Mark Bails Run for Two-Point Conversion) — SUU win probability +15.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 13:15: Targhee Lambson run for 46 yds for a TD (Daniel King KICK) — SUU win probability +28.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: SUU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 2:39: Daniel King 38 yd FG GOOD — SUU win probability +7.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SUU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:00: Jaden Smith pass complete to Skyler Locklear for 4 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK) — UTEP win probability +47.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Daniel King 33 yd FG GOOD — SUU win probability +15.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: SUU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 7 of 9SUU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:33UTEP 4th & 5 at SUU 5, tied
    Close callWent for it · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:18SUU 4th & 17 at SUU 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:16UTEP 4th & 20 at UTEP 20, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:56SUU 4th & 18 at SUU 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−2.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:57UTEP 4th & 16 at SUU 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−1.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:07SUU 4th & 12 at SUU 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:49UTEP 4th & 22 at SUU 37, up 11
    Close callPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−1.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:50SUU 4th & 17 at UTEP 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:30UTEP 4th & 14 at UTEP 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:44UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:14SUU 4th & 3 at SUU 35, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:58UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:18UTEP 4th & 9 at SUU 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−15.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:39SUU 4th & 5 at UTEP 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−13.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:05UTEP 4th & 3 at SUU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−6.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−9.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SUU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 10:33UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:09SUU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:35UTEP Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:31SUU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:15SUU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:00UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−7.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5868% → 69%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
68.2%
Skyler Locklear run for 5 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
68.1%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Marcus Vinson for 7 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
68.0%
(13:45) LOCKLEAR, Skyler pass deep up the middle complete for 73 yards to GOODMAN, Trey caught at the TEP44 and advanced to the SUU0, TOUCHDOWN TEP, score nullified by penalty, clock 13:32 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY TEP Holding on WRIGHT, Isaiah enforced 10 yards from the TEP27 to the TEP17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+65
68.0%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kam Thomas for 65 yds to the SUU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
68.3%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jaden Smith for 9 yds to the SUU 9Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+2
68.3%
Jevon Jackson run for 2 yds to the SUU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
68.3%
Skyler Locklear run for a loss of 4 yards to the SUU 11 Skyler Locklear fumbled, recovered by UTEP Skyler Locklear S. Locklear return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 11:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
68.3%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 10 yds to the SUU 1Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
68.2%
Skyler Locklear run for a loss of 4 yards to the SUU 5Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.3%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 5 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2131% → 33%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
69.0%
Braedon Wissler run for 7 yds to the SUU 32Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
68.9%
Braedon Wissler run for a loss of 1 yard to the SUU 31Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
69.4%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Gabe Nunez for 6 yds to the SUU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
69.2%
Jackson Berry run for a loss of 1 yard to the SUU 36Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+12
69.5%
Braedon Wissler run for 12 yds to the SUU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
69.1%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Zach Mitchell for 8 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+4
69.0%
Targhee Lambson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
69.1%
(06:19) BARRON, Bronson pass deep to the right complete for 40 yards to MITCHELL, Zach caught at the TEP20 and advanced to the TEP0, TOUCHDOWN SUU, clock 06:09 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY TEP Roughing the Passer on MOORE, Oscar enforced 15 yards from the SUU00 to the SUU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
66.8%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Zach Mitchell for 40 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3468% → 72%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
67.8%
Jevon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 24Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
67.7%
Skyler Locklear run for 10 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
67.9%
Skyler Locklear run for 2 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
68.0%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 8 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+26
68.6%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kam Thomas for 26 yds to the SUU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
69.0%
Jevon Jackson run for 6 yds to the SUU 24Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
69.0%
Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds to the SUU 21Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
68.6%
Jevon Jackson run for 4 yds to the SUU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
68.8%
Skyler Locklear run for 7 yds to the SUU 10Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+5
68.8%
Jevon Jackson run for 5 yds to the SUU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
72.2%
Skyler Locklear run for 5 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 4PUNT
13 plays · 20 yds · 6:1229% → 26%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.5%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Mark Bails Jr. for no gain to the SUU 20Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
71.8%
Targhee Lambson run for 3 yds to the SUU 23Similar
Q1 0:09
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+14
72.3%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Zach Mitchell for 14 yds to the SUU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
71.3%
Braedon Wissler run for a loss of 1 yard to the SUU 36Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
71.8%
(14:25) BERRY, Jackson pass to the left incomplete intended for CARR, Shane broken up by ODUMS, AJ at the SUU50, clock 14:19. PENALTY SUU Holding on ACORD, Joshua TEP Pass Interference on ODUMS, AJ , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+1
71.8%
Braedon Wissler run for 1 yd to the SUU 37Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+10
72.5%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Mark Bails Jr. for 10 yds to the SUU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
71.0%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Braedon Wissler for a loss of 2 yards to the SUU 45Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-10
72.0%
(12:11) BERRY, Jackson pass to the left incomplete thrown to the SUU45; QB hurried by WESTMORELAND, Maurice, clock 10:54. PENALTY SUU Holding on EAKINS, Steven enforced 10 yards from the SUU45 to the SUU35 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 22
OWN 35
-5
72.7%
(12:04) LAMBSON, Targhee rush up the middle for no gain to the SUU35 (CHAPMAN, Kory;HOPKINS, Dorian), clock 10:08. PENALTY Before the snap, SUU Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the SUU35 to the SUU30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 27
OWN 30
+5
72.8%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Devin Downing for 5 yds to the SUU 35Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 22
OWN 35
+5
73.6%
Jackson Berry run for 5 yds to the SUU 40Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
73.9%
Alyas Vigil punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:5272% → 71%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
72.1%
Jevon Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-3
72.7%
Kam Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 31Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-11
71.6%
Skyler Locklear sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the UTEP 20 Skyler Locklear fumbled, recovered by UTEP , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 20
OWN 20
0
70.9%
Adam Jacklin punt for 43 yds , Gabe Nunez returns for no gain to the SUU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 2:1027% → 24%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
73.3%
Braedon Wissler run for 1 yd to the SUU 38Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-6
73.4%
Jackson Berry sacked by Josiah Allen for a loss of 6 yards to the SUU 32Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 15
OWN 32
-3
75.3%
Jackson Berry sacked by Ekow Taylor and Devin Goree for a loss of 3 yards to the SUU 29Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
75.9%
Alyas Vigil punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kam Thomas at the UTEP 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:5974% → 78%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+37
73.6%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 37 yds to the SUU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
75.9%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+19
75.7%
Jevon Jackson run for 19 yds to the SUU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
76.6%
(05:04) LOCKLEAR, Skyler pass to the left incomplete intended for GOODMAN, Trey thrown to the SUU20, clock 03:26. PENALTY TEP Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the SUU20 to the SUU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+7
76.6%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 7 yds to the SUU 18Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-6
76.8%
Jevon Jackson run for a loss of 6 yards to the SUU 24Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 14
OPP 24
-2
75.4%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kam Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the SUU 26Similar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 16
OPP 26
+43
77.6%
Buzz Flabiano 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5021% → 19%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
79.2%
Southern Utah Penalty, Delay Of Game (Mikey Allen) to the SUU 20Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
79.3%
Braedon Wissler run for 3 yds to the SUU 23Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
79.9%
Jackson Berry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
80.6%
Jackson Berry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
81.0%
Alyas Vigil punt for 17 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:1081% → 79%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
81.0%
Skyler Locklear run for 15 yds to the SUU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
81.0%
Skyler Locklear sacked by Lacarea Pleasant-Johnson and Kohner Cullimore for a loss of 2 yards to the SUU 27Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+5
81.0%
Jevon Jackson run for 5 yds to the SUU 22Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
80.5%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 7
OPP 22
-15
79.7%
UTEP Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Trey Goodman) to the SUU 37Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 22
OPP 37
0
79.0%
Adam Jacklin punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Gabe Nunez at the SUU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 10Uncategorized
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:4220% → 20%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
80.1%
Jackson Berry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
80.3%
Jackson Berry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+14
80.9%
Jackson Berry run for 14 yds to the SUU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
79.4%
Jackson Berry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+27
79.6%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Shane Carr for 27 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
78.5%
Jackson Berry run for 12 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-11
76.8%
Alyas Vigil run for a loss of 11 yards to the UTEP 37 Alyas Vigil fumbled, recovered by SUU Daniel KingSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 23
OPP 37
0
79.8%
PENALTY SUU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on PERKINS, Jeremy TEP Unsportsmanlike Conduct on MATAMOROS, Luka , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 4:1021% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
79.1%
Targhee Lambson run for 7 yds to the SUU 42Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
78.3%
Targhee Lambson run for 4 yds to the SUU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+39
78.4%
Targhee Lambson run for 39 yds to the UTEP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
76.9%
Jackson Berry run for 1 yd to the UTEP 14Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-2
77.1%
Jackson Berry run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 16Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 11
OPP 16
-6
78.8%
Jackson Berry sacked by KD Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 22Similar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+39
81.6%
Daniel King 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1782% → 81%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
81.9%
Jevon Jackson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
82.0%
Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-9
81.7%
Skyler Locklear sacked by Lando Brown and Walker Harris for a loss of 9 yards to the UTEP 18Similar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
80.9%
Adam Jacklin punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:5021% → 37%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
50
+2
79.1%
Braedon Wissler run for 2 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+11
79.3%
Braedon Wissler run for 11 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
79.4%
Braedon Wissler run for 11 yds to the UTEP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
78.1%
Targhee Lambson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
78.3%
Targhee Lambson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+20
62.6%
Targhee Lambson 20 Yd Run (Mark Bails Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4668% → 66%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.3%
Skyler Locklear run for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
68.3%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
66.6%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
66.0%
Adam Jacklin punt for 45 yds, downed at the SUU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:2134% → 31%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
66.5%
Targhee Lambson run for 5 yds to the SUU 33Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
65.4%
Targhee Lambson run for no gain to the SUU 33Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+2
67.6%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Chase Merrell for 2 yds Chase Merrell fumbled, recovered by SUU Shane Carr S. Carr return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
69.0%
Daniel King punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kam Thomas at the UTEP 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:1668% → 65%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
68.0%
Jevon Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-10
68.2%
(02:44) LOCKLEAR, Skyler pass to the left complete for 2 yards to THOMAS, Kam caught at the TEP25 and advanced to the TEP30 (STROMSTAD, Mason), out of bounds, clock 02:38. PENALTY TEP Holding on LOCKLEAR, Skyler enforced 10 yards from the TEP28 to the TEP18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+8
67.3%
Jevon Jackson run for 8 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+5
66.1%
Southern Utah Penalty, Offsides (Walker Harris) to the UTEP 31Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-10
67.4%
(01:10) JACKSON, Jevon rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the TEP34 (BROWN, Lando;STROMSTAD, Mason), clock 01:05. PENALTY TEP Holding on VINSON, Marcus enforced 10 yards from the TEP31 to the TEP21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+12
65.8%
Skyler Locklear run for 12 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 1
OWN 33
-5
66.4%
UTEP Penalty, Encroachment on ESCOBAR, Ivan enforced (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 28Similar
Q4 14:58
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
65.1%
Adam Jacklin punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:3734% → 64%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
65.7%
Braedon Wissler run for a loss of 1 yard to the SUU 39Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+15
68.2%
Targhee Lambson run for 15 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
64.2%
Jackson Berry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
35.9%
Targhee Lambson run for 46 yds for a TD (Daniel King KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:5744% → 43%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.2%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
44.6%
Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
42.9%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Marcus Vinson for 4 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+44
44.5%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 44 yds to the SUU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
50.9%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 5 yds to the SUU 15Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+7
50.8%
Jevon Jackson run for 7 yds to the SUU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
50.7%
Jevon Jackson run for 1 yd to the SUU 7Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
50.5%
(10:30) QB Keeper LOCKLEAR, Skyler rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the SUU5 (BROWN, Lando), clock 10:14. PENALTY Before the snap, TEP Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the SUU7 to the SUU12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
50.6%
Jevon Jackson run for 6 yds to the SUU 6Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
46.9%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Marcus Vinson for 2 yds to the SUU 4Similar
Q4 8:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
43.4%
UTEP Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SUU 9Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
43.1%
Buzz Flabiano 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 19FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:3567% → 90%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
32.9%
Targhee Lambson run for 4 yds to the SUU 24Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
32.1%
Targhee Lambson run for 1 yd to the SUU 25Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+5
30.8%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Shane Carr for 5 yds to the SUU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
29.0%
UTEP Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Xavier Smith) to the SUU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
26.0%
Targhee Lambson run for 15 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
23.7%
Braedon Wissler run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 42Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+2
23.4%
Braedon Wissler run for 2 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+14
21.9%
Jackson Berry run for 14 yds to the UTEP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
18.8%
Targhee Lambson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
14.4%
Targhee Lambson run for no gain to the UTEP 23Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+2
14.7%
Targhee Lambson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 21Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
10.3%
Daniel King 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 2:3219% → 62%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
19.1%
Skyler Locklear run for 10 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+41
17.3%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jaden Smith for 41 yds to the SUU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
27.6%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
25.0%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kam Thomas for 4 yds to the SUU 22Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+3
23.6%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 3 yds to the SUU 19Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+9
15.0%
Skyler Locklear run for 9 yds to the SUU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
18.6%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jaden Smith for no gain to the SUU 10Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
15.9%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kam Thomas for 6 yds to the SUU 4Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
14.7%
(00:15) JACKSON, Jevon rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the SUU4 (PLEASANT-JOHNSON, LaCarea), clock 00:09. PENALTY TEP Holding on TONEY, Jaquan SUU Personal Foul , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.4%
Jaden Smith pass complete to Skyler Locklear for 4 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 70%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
41.1%
Targhee Lambson run for 8 yds to the UTEP 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-3
41.1%
Jackson Berry sacked by KD Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+7
43.6%
Jackson Berry run for 7 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
41.1%
Targhee Lambson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-15
41.1%
Southern Utah Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UTEP 27Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 24
OPP 27
-10
44.1%
(00:00) QB Keeper BERRY, Jackson rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the TEP22 (ODUMS, AJ). PENALTY SUU Holding on NUNEZ, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the TEP27 to the TEP37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 34
OPP 37
+21
45.4%
Jackson Berry run for 21 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 16
0
45.5%
Jackson Berry pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+33
29.7%
Daniel King 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0042% → 28%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
42.2%
Jevon Jackson run for 6 yds to the SUU 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
42.2%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-1
38.7%
Jevon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SUU 20Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+5
29.5%
(00:00) FLABIANO, Buzz field goal attempt from 38 yards NO GOOD (wide left) [kick was spotted at SUU28]. PENALTY SUU Offsides on LEDUC, Cooper enforced 5 yards from the SUU20 to the SUU15 and results in a 1ST DOWN [FG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
42.2%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jaden Smith for 6 yds to the SUU 9Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-10
42.2%
(00:00) LOCKLEAR, Skyler pass to the left incomplete intended for SMITH, Jaden thrown to the SUU0. PENALTY TEP Holding on WRIGHT, Isaiah enforced 10 yards from the SUU9 to the SUU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+4
33.6%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 4 yds to the SUU 15Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
33.0%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
27.5%
Buzz Flabiano 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Jaden Smith pass complete to Skyler Locklear for 4 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
+47.7
TD · Q4 13:15
Targhee Lambson run for 46 yds for a TD (Daniel King KICK)
-28.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-27.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com