View as
Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadUTU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreUTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:14 · Deacon Hill pass complete to Chris Street for 31 yds for a TD (Ilya Uvaydov KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:57: Deacon Hill pass complete to Alec Burton for 64 yds for a TD (Ilya Uvaydov KICK) — UTU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UTU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 10:59: Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ricky White III for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UTU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q1 7:33: Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ricky White III for 55 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:23: Matthew Sluka run for 30 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- FG · Q2 9:41: Caden Chittenden 28 yd FG GOOD — UTU win probability +0.7 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UTU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 9:27UTU 4th & 8 at UTU 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q1 5:58UTU 4th & 15 at UTU 20, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q1 2:42UNLV 4th & 3 at UTU 7, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.4%46% to convertField goal98.3%−0.191% to makePunt97.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 0:26UTU 4th & 16 at UTU 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 14:11UNLV 4th & 5 at UTU 9, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call98.7%89% to makePunt98.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 13:18UTU 4th & 4 at UTU 31, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 9:41UNLV 4th & 7 at UTU 10, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%88% to makePunt98.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 7:52UTU 4th & 1 at UTU 34, down 34Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:05UNLV 4th & 3 at UTU 18, up 34Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%51% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%−<0.179% to makePunt99.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:05UTU 4th & 9 at UNLV 20, down 37Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call0.5%75% to makePunt0.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:35UNLV 4th & 21 at UNLV 9, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q3 10:45UTU 4th & 18 at UTU 19, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 7:27UNLV 4th & 1 at UTU 25, up 37Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.7%−0.166% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 1:14UTU 4th & 4 at UNLV 31, down 44Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%48% to convertField goal0.0%−0.154% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:14UTU 4th & 10 at UTU 45, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:58UTU 4th & 12 at UTU 23, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:42UTU 4th & 9 at UTU 26, down 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 9 of 9UTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:54UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 12:57UTU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.4%97% to makeGo for two1.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:59UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:33UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:42UNLV Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:23UNLV Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:17UNLV Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:14UTU Touchdown, down 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:08UNLV Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:50UNLV Touchdown, up 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:25UNLV Touchdown, up 57 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNLVDrive 1TD4 plays · 64 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
Q1 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+36
99.1%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 36 yds to the UTU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 2TD5 plays · 75 yds · 0:571% → 1%
UNLVDrive 3TD8 plays · 51 yds · 1:5799% → 99%
Q1 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+15
99.0%
Greg Burrell run for 11 yds to the UTU 9 for a 1ST down Utah Tech Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Malakai Fakahua) to the UTU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ricky White III for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:321% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5TD4 plays · 76 yds · 1:5499% → 99%
UTUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:351% → 1%
UNLVDrive 7TD9 plays · 62 yds · 3:1699% → 99%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
98.8%
Utah Tech Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UTU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+3
98.8%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 3 yds to the UTU 7Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+7
98.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ricky White III for 7 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 2:161% → 1%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Reggie Graff pass complete to Eric Olsen for no gain to the UTU 25Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.0%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Bryce Parker for a loss of 1 yard to the UTU 24Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-10
99.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hill,Deacon pass complete short middle to Street,Chris caught at UTT22, for 22 yards to the UTT46 (Woodard,Jackson) PENALTY UTT Holding (Reynolds,Nolan) 10 yards from UTT24 to UTT14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+5
99.0%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Nygel Osborne for 5 yds to the UTU 19Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
98.9%
Andy Day punt blocked by Ricky White III, recovered by UNLV Catalon,Jalen at UTT19, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9FG4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+2
98.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ricky White III for 2 yds to the UTU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q2 13:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.0%
Andy Day punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11TD3 plays · 72 yds · 0:3799% → 99%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+42
99.1%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ricky White III for 42 yds to the UTU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 12INT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:281% → 1%
Q2 10:54
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.0%
Deacon Hill pass intercepted Johnathan Baldwin return for no gain to the UTU 13 Johnathan Baldwin fumbled, recovered by UTU Jett EladSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q2 7:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.6%
Andy Day punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15FG9 plays · 59 yds · 5:36100% → 100%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
99.6%
Matthew Sluka run for 10 yds to the UTU 25 Matthew Sluka fumbled, recovered by UTU Greg Burrell for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 16MISSED FG12 plays · 55 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.7%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Chris Street for 4 yds to the UTU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+28
99.8%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Jay McEuen for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Melvin Laster) to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-5
99.7%
(01:54) PENALTY UTT False Start (Crowley,Bryce) 5 yards from UNLV31 to UNLV36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+15
99.7%
(01:31) No Huddle Hill,Deacon pass incomplete short right to Thomason,Daniel thrown to UNLV29 PENALTY UNLV Pass Interference (Wiley,La'Vario) 15 yards from UNLV36 to UNLV21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 0:23100% → 100%
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-11
99.7%
Matthew Sluka sacked by Rick Mua'e for a loss of 11 yards to the UNLV 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 18END OF HALF3 plays · 38 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+37
99.8%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Bryce Parker for 37 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 19FUMBLE5 plays · 30 yds · 1:440% → 0%
UNLVDrive 20FUMBLE3 plays · 28 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
99.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 15 yds to the UTU 27 Hajj-Malik Williams fumbled, recovered by UTU Foster SlaughterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
99.8%
(11:55) Shotgun Hill,Deacon pass complete short left to Street,Chris caught at UTT28, for 5 yards to the UTT32 (Elad,Jett) PENALTY UTT Holding (Crowley,Bryce) 10 yards from UTT27 to UTT17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 20
OWN 17
+2
99.8%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Chris Street for 2 yds to the UTU 19Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 18
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Andy Day punt for 41 yds, fair catch by DeAngelo Irvin Jr. at the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22TD13 plays · 60 yds · 5:17100% → 100%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
99.9%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Burrell,Greg rush right for 4 yards gain to the UTT30 (Vuki,Micah) PENALTY UNLV Holding (Vicari,Mason) 10 yards from UTT34 to UTT44. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 23TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:560% → 0%
Q3 3:36
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+10
99.9%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun Hill,Deacon sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UTT37 (Muavesi,Waisale, Scott,Brennon) PENALTY UNLV Holding (Wiley,La'Vario) 10 yards from UTT40 to UTT50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
99.9%
Reggie Graff pass complete to Eric Olsen for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+8
99.9%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Chris Street for 8 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+31
99.9%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Chris Street for 31 yds for a TD (Ilya Uvaydov KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24TD10 plays · 64 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
99.9%
Reggie Graff pass complete to Bryce Parker for 16 yds to the UTU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-4
99.9%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Hill,Deacon pass complete short right to Olsen,Eric caught at UTT47, for 4 yards to the UTT49 (Scott,Brennon) PENALTY UTT Illegal Touch-Pass (Olsen,Eric). NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
99.9%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Timothy Conerly for 30 yds to the UTU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 27PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
100.0%
(08:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Osborne,Nygel rush right for 2 yards gain to the UTT27 (Scott,Brennon) PENALTY UTT Block Below Waist (Price,Trey) 12 yards from UTT25 to UTT13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
100.0%
PENALTY UTT False Start (Jackson,Scooter) 5 yards from UTT28 to UTT23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Andy Day punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Damien McDaniel at the UNLV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28TD7 plays · 66 yds · 4:25100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:270% → 0%
Q4 1:42
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Andy Day punt for 34 yds, fair catch by DeAngelo Irvin Jr. at the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 30END OF GAME3 plays · 10 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 9:41
Caden Chittenden 28 yd FG GOOD
-0.7
TD · Q2 12:23
Matthew Sluka run for 30 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 12:57
Deacon Hill pass complete to Alec Burton for 64 yds for a TD (Ilya Uvaydov KICK)
-0.1