2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreLIB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:42 · CJ Hester run for no gain to the LIB 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 13:09: Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +19.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:08: Ahmad Haston run for 2 yds for a TD (AJ Hairston pass to Dominick Mazotti for Two-Point Conversion) — MASS win probability +36.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:49: Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +37.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Jalen John 2 Yd Run (Jacob Lurie PAT failed) — MASS win probability +21.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Q. Cooley run for 5 yds for a TD (C. Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +64.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 2:42MASS 4th & 1 at LIB 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.3%71% to convertField goal25.7%−0.781% to makePunt23.6%−2.7average punt
- Q2 14:15LIB 4th & 6 at MASS 41, down 7Close callPunted · 71.3% before the snapGo for it71.5%40% to convertField goal71.0%−0.532% to makePuntTheir call71.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 7:20MASS 4th & 4 at LIB 4, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snapGo for it38.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call37.5%−0.493% to makePunt32.8%−5.2average punt
- Q2 1:33MASS 4th & 5 at LIB 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snapGo for it36.2%−0.541% to convertField goalTheir call36.7%68% to makePunt32.0%−4.8average punt
- Q3 8:47MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 37, up 6Close callPunted · 51.3% before the snapGo for it52.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.9%−0.6average punt
- Q3 6:02LIB 4th & 7 at MASS 46, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snapGo for it48.4%−0.137% to convertField goal45.4%−3.223% to makePuntTheir call48.6%average punt
- Q3 4:01MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 18, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 55.4% before the snapGo for it56.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.0%−1.3average punt
- Q4 2:51MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snapGo for it44.5%−5.832% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.3%average punt
- Q4 1:54LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 38, tiedClose callPunted · 49.1% before the snapGo for it44.8%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 0:01MASS 4th & 3 at LIB 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snapGo for it50.4%−13.552% to convertField goalTheir call63.9%66% to makePunt37.4%−26.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 9:20MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.2%97% to makeGo for two20.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:01LIB Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.3%97% to makeGo for two66.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:10MASS Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.4%97% to makeGo for two57.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 10:01LIB Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.5%97% to makeGo for two46.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:09LIB Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.9%97% to makeGo for two56.2%−0.745% to convert
- Q4 7:08MASS Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick72.3%−0.897% to makeGo for twoTheir call73.1%45% to convert
- Q4 3:49LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call44.7%−0.197% to makeGo for two44.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMASSDrive 1TD10 plays · 77 yds · 5:3412% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2INT8 plays · 1 yds · 3:4284% → 81%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 2 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
17.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Vaughn Blue for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 33Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-10
18.4%
(06:09) SALTER, Kaidon pass deep up the middle complete for 51 yards to SIBLEY, Treon caught at the UMASS20 and advanced to the UMASS13 (ELLIS, Lake), clock 05:56. PENALTY LIB Holding on TUCKER, Jack enforced 10 yards from the LIB36 to the LIB26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 19
OWN 26
0
19.1%
Kaidon Salter pass intercepted Te'Rai Powell return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3DOWNS6 plays · 34 yds · 2:4720% → 22%
Q1 4:10
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+8
20.8%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 8 yds to the LIB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 43 yds · 3:2179% → 77%
Q1 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 16
-10
22.3%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Christian LeBrun for a loss of 10 yards to the LIB 6Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 20
OWN 6
+15
23.2%
(01:00) MORGAN, Max punt 19 yards to the LIB25 out of bounds, clock 00:52. PENALTY UMASS Roughing the Kicker on MARTIN, Tyler enforced 15 yards from the LIB6 to the LIB21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+34
22.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 34 yds to the MASS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5FG14 plays · 86 yds · 6:4824% → 33%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
25.7%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 9 yds to the MASS 40Similar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
28.0%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 2 yds to the MASS 43Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+32
28.9%
AJ Hairston pass complete to T.Y. Harding for 32 yds to the LIB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
30.7%
(09:35) HAIRSTON, AJ pass up the middle incomplete intended for KEENEY-JAMES, Jakobie broken up by OLIVER, Alex at the LIB10, clock 09:31. PENALTY LIB Holding on OLIVER, Alex enforced 10 yards from the LIB24 to the LIB14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD6 plays · 82 yds · 2:1066% → 75%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
33.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7FG12 plays · 51 yds · 3:2731% → 40%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
36.0%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for a loss of 3 yards to the LIB 46Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+5
35.0%
(02:36) HAIRSTON, AJ pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GIBSON, Jacquon thrown to the LIB30, clock 02:34. PENALTY LIB Offsides on BAZILE, JR., CJ enforced 5 yards from the LIB46 to the LIB41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+12
36.3%
AJ Hairston pass complete to T.Y. Harding for 12 yds to the LIB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8FUMBLE3 plays · 8 yds · 0:1058% → 60%
MASSDrive 9TD7 plays · 45 yds · 0:5744% → 53%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
43.5%
AJ Hairston run for 1 yd to the LIB 44 for a 1ST down Liberty Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (TJ Bush Jr.) to the LIB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-3
44.6%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the LIB 6 fumbled, recovered by MASS Ahmad Haston A. Haston return for 11 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
60.2%
(00:07) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at LIB19 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11TD13 plays · 82 yds · 4:4647% → 61%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
53.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 16 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+18
54.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 18 yds to the MASS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
-10
52.2%
(13:00) SALTER, Kaidon pass short to the right complete for 14 yards to JENKINS, Jacob caught at the UMASS24 and advanced to the UMASS15 (AYERS, Macklin), clock 12:46. PENALTY LIB Holding on FLORES, John Paul enforced 10 yards from the UMASS29 to the UMASS39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0148% → 48%
Q3 8:47
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+6
47.5%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 48 yds , Brylan Green returns for 6 yds to the LIB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3454% → 51%
MASSDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5452% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15TD13 plays · 89 yds · 5:3848% → 71%
MASSDrive 16TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:5837% → 86%
Q4 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
35.7%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 15 yds to the MASS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+25
44.0%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 25 yds to the LIB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+9
45.9%
Liberty Penalty, Face mask (9 yards) (Dexter Ricks Jr.) to the LIB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.1%
Ahmad Haston run for 2 yds for a TD (AJ Hairston pass to Dominick Mazotti for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17TD10 plays · 65 yds · 3:1822% → 63%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
77.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 8 yds to the LIB 43Similar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+13
80.5%
(04:29) SALTER, Kaidon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for CANION, Elijah thrown to the UMASS0, clock 04:25. PENALTY UMASS Pass Interference on ELLIS, Lake enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the UMASS4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5053% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4655% → 53%
Q4 1:54
4TH & 5
OWN 38
-5
46.9%
Max Morgan punt for 47 yds , T.Y. Harding returns for a loss of 5 yards to the MASS 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20MISSED FG15 plays · 65 yds · 1:4253% → 62%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
53.1%
AJ Hairston pass complete to T.Y. Harding for 15 yds to the MASS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
54.7%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 15 yds to the MASS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
60.0%
(00:43) HAIRSTON, AJ pass to the left incomplete intended for HARDING, T.Y. thrown to the LIB47, clock 00:40. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on RICKS, JR., Dexter enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the LIB47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
64.0%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 15 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
67.0%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 9 yds to the LIB 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21TD2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 87%
LIBDrive 22TD3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0024% → 90%
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Q. Cooley run for 5 yds for a TD (C. Karhu KICK)
-64
TD · Q4 3:49
Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
-37.6
TD · Q4 7:08
Ahmad Haston run for 2 yds for a TD (AJ Hairston pass to Dominick Mazotti for Two-Point Conversion)
+36