Try the model
MASS

Massachusetts 3 at Buffalo 34

BUF
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · UB Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:13 · CJ Kolodziey punt for 71 yds , Victor Snow returns for 27 yds to the BUF 45 Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Jalen McNair) to the BUF 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Home team on offense+5.0Score differential+1.3Pregame prior+5.0Garbage-time factor−0.3Blowout margin+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:50: Jacob Lurie 34 yd FG GOOD — MASS win probability +2.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:19: Jalen John run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 43 — MASS win probability +5.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:24: Upton Bellenfant 34 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +7.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:38: C.J. Ogbonna 8 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick) — BUF win probability +10.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:00: Marquis Cooper 100 Yd Interception Return (Upton Bellenfant Kick) — BUF win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MASS made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 0:11MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:17MASS 4th & 4 at BUF 32, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:13BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:26MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:23BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:06MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 10, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:52BUF 4th & 6 at MASS 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:13MASS 4th & 17 at MASS 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:10BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:10MASS 4th & 1 at BUF 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−2.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:50MASS 4th & 6 at BUF 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−5.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:27MASS 4th & 1 at BUF 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−2.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:24BUF 4th & 9 at MASS 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−8.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:17MASS 4th & 13 at MASS 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−3.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:51BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:13MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:01MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 23, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:54BUF 4th & 1 at MASS 1, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:34MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:25MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:10BUF 4th & 2 at MASS 45, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:06BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:38BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:00BUF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:0158% → 60%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
57.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jake Orlando for no gain to the BUF 15Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
57.6%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 4 yds to the BUF 19Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+31
57.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
50
+1
58.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 1 yd to the MASS 49Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+9
58.0%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 9 yds to the MASS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
60.1%
JJ Jenkins 40 Yd pass from C.J. Ogbonna (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0237% → 37%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
62.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 4 yds to the MASS 24Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+9
62.7%
Jalen John run for 9 yds to the MASS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
62.5%
Jalen John run for 4 yds to the MASS 37Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-3
62.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jalen John for a loss of 3 yards to the MASS 34Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+5
63.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Jacquon Gibson, broken up by Charles McCartherens Buffalo Penalty, off-side (Malin White) to the MASS 39Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-1
62.4%
Jalen John run for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 38Similar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
63.2%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 5:4341% → 39%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
59.4%
CJ Hester run for 3 yds to the MASS 21Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+9
59.5%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 9 yds to the MASS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
59.3%
Hester,CJ rush left (Dolac,Shaun).Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
59.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 15 yds to the MASS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
59.1%
CJ Hester run for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 44Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+1
59.2%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 1 yd to the MASS 45Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-5
59.3%
Massachusetts Penalty, false start (Jakobie Keeney-James) to the MASS 40Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+22
59.5%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 22 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
58.9%
CJ Hester run for 2 yds to the BUF 36Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+4
58.9%
CJ Hester run for 4 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
58.9%
pass incomplete to Sterling GalbanSimilar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+50
61.3%
Jacob Lurie 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0462% → 62%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
62.1%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUF 33Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
62.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Victor Snow, broken up by Tyler RudolphSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+7
61.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Messiah Burch for 7 yds to the BUF 40Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
62.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4738% → 37%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
62.2%
pass incomplete to Jakobie Keeney-JamesSimilar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-2
62.3%
Brandon Campbell run for a loss of 2 yards to the MASS 16 Massachusetts Penalty, Offensive holding (Benjamin Roy Jr.) to the MASS 16Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 12
OWN 16
0
62.8%
pass incomplete to T.Y. HardingSimilar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
63.0%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0363% → 62%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
62.6%
pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
62.5%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the BUF 36Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
62.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Messiah Burch, broken up by Derrieon CraigSimilar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+63
62.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 63 yds Massachusetts Penalty, personal foul (Macklin Ayers) to the MASS 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 15:5443% → 36%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+3
57.5%
Jalen John run for 3 yds to the MASS 7Similar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
62.7%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 3 yds to the MASS 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+3
63.8%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 3 yds to the MASS 10Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 1
OWN 10
+9
64.4%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 37 yds , Victor Snow returns for 9 yds to the MASS 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1465% → 66%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
65.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the MASS 31Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
65.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the MASS 29Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+5
64.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incomplete to Taji Johnson, broken up by Isaiah Rutherford for a 1ST down Massachusetts Penalty, off-side (Derrieon Craig) to the MASS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
65.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the MASS 21Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
65.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the MASS 20Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
64.7%
pass incomplete to Javien CuffSimilar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
65.7%
Upton Bellenfant 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3935% → 32%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.5%
pass incomplete to CJ HesterSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
65.6%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Kobe Stewart and Malin White for a loss of 5 yards to the MASS 20Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-2
66.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to CJ Hester for a loss of 2 yards to the MASS 18Similar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+27
68.1%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 71 yds , Victor Snow returns for 27 yds to the BUF 45 Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Jalen McNair) to the BUF 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0367% → 66%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
66.5%
Barksdale,Jacqez rush middle (Craig,Derrieon).Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+4
66.4%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the BUF 9Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+1
65.7%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUF 10Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+6
66.4%
Ethan Duane punt for 51 yds , T.Y. Harding returns for 6 yds to the MASS 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11FG
13 plays · 39 yds · 6:2033% → 34%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
67.0%
Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the MASS 48Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
66.7%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 5 yds to the BUF 47Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
66.7%
Brandon Campbell run for 1 yd to the BUF 46Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
67.5%
Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
66.5%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
66.6%
Brandon Campbell run for 9 yds to the BUF 35Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+5
66.2%
Jalen John run for 5 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
65.6%
Jalen John run for 4 yds to the BUF 26Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+6
65.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Sterling Galban for 6 yds to the BUF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
65.3%
Jalen John run for 1 yd to the BUF 19Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+3
65.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jalen John for 3 yds to the BUF 16Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
68.8%
pass incomplete to Jalen JohnSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
66.5%
Jacob Lurie 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12Uncategorized
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:3169% → 71%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
69.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 4 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+13
69.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Javien Cuff for 13 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
70.9%
pass incomplete to Al-Jay HendersonSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-6
70.8%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Louce Julien for a loss of 6 yards to the BUF 41 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by MASS Derrieon Craig , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:1835% → 35%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
65.1%
Jalen John run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 43Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+11
66.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 11 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
64.6%
John,Jalen rush middle (Dolac,Shaun).Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
66.1%
Jalen John run for 2 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
63.8%
pass incomplete to Jacquon GibsonSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
63.9%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 3 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+45
65.5%
Jacob Lurie 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:3670% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
70.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 1 yd to the BUF 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
70.0%
pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+34
68.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 34 yds to the MASS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
72.2%
pass incomplete to Taji JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
72.1%
Henderson,Al-Jay rush right (Reuben,Etinosa;Wiggins Jr.,Jermaine).Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+19
71.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Javien Cuff for 19 yds to the MASS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
72.4%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the MASS 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
72.4%
pass incomplete to Javien CuffSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
-2
71.6%
C.J. Ogbonna run for a loss of 2 yards to the MASS 16Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
76.0%
Upton Bellenfant 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0724% → 21%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.6%
CJ Hester run for 1 yd to the MASS 26Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
75.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 3 yds to the MASS 29Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
76.1%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Shaun Dolac for a loss of 7 yards to the MASS 22Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
78.9%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:2678% → 79%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
77.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Javien Cuff for 4 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
78.0%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 4 yds to the BUF 38Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
77.8%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
78.8%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Sahnai Swain-Price for a loss of 5 yards to the BUF 36Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
77.4%
Shelton,Terrance rush left (Swain-Price,Sahnai).Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+10
76.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Lamar Sperling for 10 yds to the BUF 46Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
79.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3821% → 19%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
79.1%
Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the MASS 11Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
79.1%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
80.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Matt Smith, broken up by Shaun DolacSimilar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 7
OWN 11
+11
81.0%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MASS 20 for a 1ST down , Victor Snow returns for 11 yds to the MASS 22 for a 1ST down Massachusetts Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jaelyn Lay) to the MASS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:3582% → 93%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
82.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Messiah Burch for 12 yds to the MASS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
92.8%
C.J. Ogbonna 8 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:389% → 2%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Jakobie Keeney-James, broken up by Charles McCartherensSimilar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jalen John for 6 yds to the MASS 31Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
91.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jalen John for 15 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
90.9%
Sterling Galban run for a loss of 7 yards to the MASS 39Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+8
91.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jalen John for 8 yds to the MASS 47Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+24
91.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 24 yds to the BUF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+21
89.4%
Brandon Campbell run for 21 yds to the BUF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
89.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Owen Anderson, broken up by Clevester Hines IIISimilar
Q3 4:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
89.4%
Jalen John run for 3 yds to the BUF 5Similar
Q3 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
92.8%
Buffalo Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MASS 8Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-100
97.7%
Marquis Cooper 100 Yd Interception Return (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
Brandon Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
99.8%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 6 yds to the MASS 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
99.7%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Red Murdock for a loss of 7 yards to the MASS 23Similar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
99.8%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 52 yds , Victor Snow returns for no gain to the BUF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 8:07100% → 100%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.7%
Lamar Sperling run for 8 yds to the BUF 33Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
99.7%
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.8%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the BUF 39Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
99.8%
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+16
99.7%
Lamar Sperling run for 16 yds to the MASS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
99.8%
Lamar Sperling run for 22 yds to the MASS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Sperling,Lamar rush right (Powell,Te'Rai;Johnson,Gerrell).Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
99.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Andrew Schnackenberg for 9 yds to the MASS 11Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
99.7%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the MASS 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.8%
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the MASS 5Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.8%
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the MASS 3Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.7%
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the MASS 1Similar
Q4 4:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Lamar Sperling 1 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:290% → 0%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
pass incomplete to Kezion Dia-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to CJ Hester, broken up by SaVeon BrownSimilar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
pass incomplete to CJ HesterSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
CJ Kolodziey puntSimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the BUF 35Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+12
99.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 12 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Sperling,Lamar rush left (Dyson,Donovan).Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the MASS 49Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+4
100.0%
Mark-Anthony Scott Jr. run for 4 yds to the MASS 45Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
99.9%
punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24Uncategorized
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
100.0%
Jackson Paradis run for 5 yds to the MASS 6Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 6
-1
100.0%
Jackson Paradis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:38
C.J. Ogbonna 8 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)
+10.8
FG · Q3 11:24
Upton Bellenfant 34 yd FG GOOD
+7.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:19
Jalen John run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 43
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com