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MASS

Massachusetts 23 at Toledo 38

TOL
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:35 · CJ Kolodziey punt for 35 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for no gain to the TOL 28 Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TOL 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+38.9Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:42: Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 14 yds for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK) — MASS win probability +9.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:01: Jacob Lurie 42 Yd Field Goal — MASS win probability +2.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 4:08: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 73 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +16.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:30: Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +5.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:56: Taisun Phommachanh run for 8 yds for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK) — MASS win probability +11.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MASS made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 13:35MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:13TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:06MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:36TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:35MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:42TOL 4th & 8 at MASS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 5:02MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:52MASS 4th & 5 at TOL 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:09TOL 4th & 6 at MASS 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:01MASS 4th & 7 at TOL 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:01TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:30MASS 4th & 4 at TOL 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:44MASS 4th & 5 at TOL 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−6.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:24TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:26MASS 4th & 13 at MASS 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−3.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:39TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:19MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:21MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 46, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:04TOL 4th & 3 at MASS 27, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−2.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:17MASS 4th & 2 at TOL 13, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−0.3
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−1.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:51MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 3:19TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:42MASS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:08TOL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:30TOL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:56MASS Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:26TOL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2510% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.6%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 5 yds to the MASS 30Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
89.4%
Jalen John run for a loss of 2 yards to the MASS 28Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
89.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
89.2%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 35 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for no gain to the TOL 28 Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TOL 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1189% → 89%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
89.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the MASS 48Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-5
89.1%
Toledo Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the TOL 47Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+6
89.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the MASS 47Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
88.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 6
OPP 47
-5
88.8%
Toledo Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the TOL 48Similar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 11
OWN 48
+1
88.8%
Emilio Duran punt for 48 yds , Sterling Galban returns for 1 yd to the MASS 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5711% → 12%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
88.8%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Jackson Barrow and Cavon Butler for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 4Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+2
88.6%
Jalen John run for 2 yds to the MASS 6Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+3
88.5%
Jalen John run for 3 yds to the MASS 9Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 6
OWN 9
0
88.3%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 43 yds, downed at the TOL 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2388% → 88%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
88.4%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
88.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
88.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 10
OWN 48
+2
88.0%
Emilio Duran punt for 40 yds , Sterling Galban returns for 2 yds to the MASS 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5712% → 12%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
88.0%
Taisun Phommachanh run for a loss of 2 yards to the MASS 12Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 12
OWN 12
0
87.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+1
88.0%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 1 yd to the MASS 13Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
87.9%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4988% → 87%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
87.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the MASS 48Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-4
87.8%
Willie Shaw III run for a loss of 4 yards to the TOL 48Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+3
87.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 3 yds to the MASS 49Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
87.0%
Emilio Duran punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3313% → 13%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
86.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Sterling Galban for 8 yds to the MASS 28Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
86.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to CJ Hester for 1 yd to the MASS 29Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
86.6%
punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:3887% → 89%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
86.5%
Willie Shaw III run for 5 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
86.7%
Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+18
86.5%
Tucker Gleason run for 18 yds to the MASS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
88.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 40 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9FG
11 plays · 86 yds · 6:2012% → 15%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
87.9%
Brandon Campbell run for 7 yds to the MASS 16Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+6
87.7%
Brandon Campbell run for 6 yds to the MASS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
87.8%
Brandon Campbell run for a loss of 2 yards to the MASS 20Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+8
87.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 8 yds to the MASS 28Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+25
87.6%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 25 yds to the TOL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+39
86.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 39 yds to the TOL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
86.0%
Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the TOL 6Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
85.8%
Taisun Phommachanh run for no gain to the TOL 6Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
86.1%
Massachusetts Penalty, False Start (Sterling Galban) to the TOL 11Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
86.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Matt Smith for 6 yds to the TOL 5Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
84.8%
Jacob Lurie 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:4385% → 87%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
84.9%
Massachusetts Penalty, Targeting on JOHNSON, Gerrell enforced (Gerrell Johnson) to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
85.6%
Massachusetts Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Gerrell Johnson) to the MASS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
85.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 4 yds to the MASS 37Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
85.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+12
85.2%
Massachusetts Penalty, Face mask (12 yards) (Gerrell Johnson) to the MASS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
85.5%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the MASS 11Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
85.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+3
85.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 3 yds to the MASS 8Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
86.7%
Dylan Cunanan 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:2613% → 26%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.6%
Jalen John run for 4 yds to the MASS 29Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
86.3%
Jalen John run for 3 yds to the MASS 32Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
86.6%
Jalen John run for 6 yds to the MASS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
86.0%
Jalen John run for a loss of 2 yards to the MASS 36Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+7
86.5%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 7 yds to the MASS 43Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+7
85.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jaelyn Lay for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
50
+23
84.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 23 yds to the TOL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
83.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 6 yds to the TOL 21Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+8
83.7%
Jalen John run for 8 yds to the TOL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
83.5%
Jalen John run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 14Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+14
73.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 14 yds for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 2:3015% → 18%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
85.3%
CJ Hester run for 7 yds to the MASS 42Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
84.4%
CJ Hester run for 5 yds to the MASS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
84.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 4 yds to the TOL 49Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
83.5%
(01:34) PHOMMACHANH, Taisun scrambles up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the TOL47 (HOLT, Deshawn), clock 01:29. PENALTY TOL Offsides on HOLT, Deshawn enforced 5 yards from the TOL49 to the TOL44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+3
82.9%
CJ Hester run for 3 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
83.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+14
83.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 14 yds to the TOL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
81.8%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 4 yds to the TOL 23Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
81.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 4 yds to the TOL 19Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-5
83.6%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Anthony Dunn Jr. and Martez Poynter for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 24Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
81.7%
Jacob Lurie 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:5682% → 80%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
81.5%
GLEASON, Tucker pass up the middle incomplete intended for NEWTON, Jerjuan thrown to the TOL40, clock 14:57. PENALTY MAS Pass Interference on RUTHERFORD, Isaiah enforced 15 yards to the TOL40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 40Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
81.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
81.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:01
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+9
79.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 40 yds , Sterling Galban returns for 9 yds to the MASS 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14FG
19 plays · 59 yds · 7:1420% → 26%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
80.5%
Jalen John run for 5 yds to the MASS 34Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
79.5%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+5
80.5%
(13:25) PHOMMACHANH, Taisun pass to the left incomplete intended for SMITH, Matt thrown to the MAS41, clock 13:23. PENALTY TOL Offsides on RAGIN, D'Andre enforced 5 yards from the MAS34 to the MAS39 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
79.3%
Jalen John run for 1 yd to the MASS 40Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
79.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+10
80.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
50
0
77.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
50
+2
78.0%
Jalen John run for 2 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+11
77.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 11 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
77.4%
Taisun Phommachanh run for no gain to the TOL 37Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
77.8%
CJ Hester run for 6 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
77.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+5
79.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to CJ Hester for 5 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
76.0%
Massachusetts Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+15
77.1%
Toledo Penalty, Block below the waist on BOWERS, Nasir enforced (Nasir Bowers) to the TOL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
75.5%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to CJ Hester for 3 yds to the TOL 14Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
75.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+2
76.3%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 2 yds to the TOL 12Similar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
74.4%
Jacob Lurie 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1777% → 74%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
75.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
74.2%
James Roe punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Sterling Galban at the MASS 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:5927% → 28%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
73.5%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 18 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
72.0%
CJ Hester run for 1 yd to the TOL 39Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-1
71.8%
Taisun Phommachanh run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 40Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
72.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass intercepted Braden Awls return for no gain to the TOL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
88.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 73 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:3014% → 11%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
86.5%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Matt Smith for 17 yds to the MASS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
86.9%
Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the MASS 40Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
86.9%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 2 yds to the MASS 42Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-7
87.2%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Deshawn Holt for a loss of 7 yards to the MASS 35Similar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+7
88.9%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 35 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 7 yds to the TOL 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4390% → 89%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
89.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
89.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
88.8%
James Roe punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Sterling Galban at the MASS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1512% → 11%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
88.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
88.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Sterling Galban for 4 yds to the MASS 27Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-1
88.6%
Taisun Phommachanh run for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 26Similar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
89.3%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:3991% → 96%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
90.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 9 yds to the MASS 46Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
91.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the MASS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+39
91.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 39 yds to the MASS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.3%
Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 3:066% → 5%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.5%
CJ Hester run for 4 yds to the MASS 29Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
94.5%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Matt Smith for 15 yds to the MASS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
94.3%
CJ Hester run for 3 yds to the MASS 47Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+2
94.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to CJ Hester for 2 yds to the MASS 49Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-3
95.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Sterling Galban for a loss of 3 yards to the MASS 46Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 8
OWN 46
-12
95.5%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Darius Alexander and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren for a loss of 12 yards to the MASS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0797% → 97%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
96.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the MASS 33Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
96.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+6
96.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 6 yds to the MASS 27Similar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 3
OPP 27
0
96.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 5:015% → 16%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+25
95.3%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 25 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
95.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Sterling Galban for 14 yds to the TOL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
94.7%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 5 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+8
94.4%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 8 yds to the TOL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
94.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
94.6%
Jalen John run for 5 yds to the TOL 16Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+3
95.1%
Jalen John run for 3 yds to the TOL 13Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+7
96.1%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 7 yds to the TOL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
95.8%
Taisun Phommachanh run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 8Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.2%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 8 yds for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:1496% → 99%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+12
96.2%
Connor Walendzak run for 12 yds to the MASS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
96.3%
Connor Walendzak run for 4 yds to the MASS 9Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+2
96.9%
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the MASS 7Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
98.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:351% → 1%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.2%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Malachi Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the MASS 21Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
99.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jalen John for 10 yds to the MASS 31Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -9 yds · 1:1499% → 99%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
99.4%
(01:43) [NHSG] Kneel down by GLEASON, Tucker at MAS36 (team loss of 5), clock 01:38.Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 15
OPP 36
-3
99.4%
(01:02) [NHSG] Kneel down by GLEASON, Tucker at MAS39 (team loss of 3), clock 00:54.Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 18
OPP 39
-1
99.3%
(00:29) [NHSG] Kneel down by GLEASON, Tucker at MAS40 (team loss of 1), clock 00:19.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:08
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 73 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
+16.8
TD · Q4 2:56
Taisun Phommachanh run for 8 yds for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q2 2:42
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 14 yds for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK)
-9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com