2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:44 · CJ Hester run for 4 yds to the EMU 29 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:47: Cole Snyder 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick) — EMU win probability +6.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:31: Oran Singleton 18 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Jesus Gomez Kick) — EMU win probability +9.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:43: Jalen John run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK) — MASS win probability +10.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:43: Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 40 yds to the MASS 35 for a 1ST down — EMU win probability +6.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:49: Jesús Gómez 20 Yd Field Goal — EMU win probability +6.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7EMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 9:21MASS 4th & 23 at EMU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snapGo for it58.0%−0.37% to convertField goal58.2%−0.225% to makePuntTheir call58.4%average punt
- Q1 4:32EMU 4th & 2 at MASS 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.2%57% to convertField goal41.7%−0.538% to makePunt41.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:40MASS 4th & 5 at EMU 45, tiedClose callPunted · 58.9% before the snapGo for it59.1%41% to convertField goal58.5%−0.525% to makePuntTheir call58.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 5:28MASS 4th & 19 at EMU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snapGo for it44.0%−2.011% to convertField goalTheir call46.0%66% to makePunt40.8%−5.2average punt
- Q2 3:27EMU 4th & 12 at MASS 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snapGo for it54.2%−0.623% to convertField goal53.9%−0.925% to makePuntTheir call54.8%average punt
- Q2 1:02MASS 4th & 7 at EMU 36, down 7Close callWent for it · 45.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.4%−0.237% to convertField goal45.5%42% to makePunt43.7%−1.8average punt
- Q3 14:07EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 28, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snapGo for it69.1%−1.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.4%average punt
- Q3 4:49EMU 4th & 2 at MASS 2, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snapGo for it67.4%48% to convertField goalTheir call64.8%−2.694% to makePunt53.8%−13.5average punt
- Q3 4:44MASS 4th & 1 at EMU 33, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.8%71% to convertField goal26.8%−4.049% to makePunt25.5%−5.3average punt
- Q4 14:50MASS 4th & 9 at EMU 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snapGo for it24.4%−1.031% to convertField goalTheir call25.3%60% to makePunt18.0%−7.3average punt
- Q4 7:49EMU 4th & 13 at MASS 13, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snapGo for it81.2%−2.417% to convertField goalTheir call83.6%85% to makePunt74.2%−9.5average punt
- Q4 6:12MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 34, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.5%−1.6average punt
- Q4 2:00EMU 4th & 2 at MASS 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.5%57% to convertField goal97.0%−0.542% to makePunt96.7%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q2 12:47EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.1%97% to makeGo for two48.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:31EMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.7%97% to makeGo for two65.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:43MASS Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.9%97% to makeGo for two35.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:43EMU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick98.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call97.9%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 3:06MASS Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.5%97% to makeGo for two3.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMASSDrive 1PUNT13 plays · 25 yds · 5:3958% → 58%
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
57.9%
PHOMMACHANH, Taisun pass up the middle incomplete intended for GIBSON, Jacquon thrown to the UMA50, clock 13:40. PENALTY EMU Offsides on CARTER, David declined EMU Pass Interference on SCOTT, Joshua enforced 15 yards to the EMU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+6
58.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jalen John for 6 yds to the EMU 34Similar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
58.4%
JOHN, Jalen rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard to the EMU33, out of bounds, clock 12:07. PENALTY UMA Holding on ATWOOD, Josh enforced 10 yards from the EMU32 to the EMU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 20
OPP 42
-4
58.2%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Trey Laing for a loss of 4 yards to the EMU 46Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 24
OPP 46
-2
58.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to CJ Hester for a loss of 2 yards to the EMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2DOWNS10 plays · 54 yds · 4:4942% → 43%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
58.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 8 yds to the EMU 16Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
58.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for no gain to the EMU 23Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+19
58.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 19 yds to the EMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+5
57.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 5 yds to the MASS 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5259% → 59%
Q1 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+10
58.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Sterling Galban for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4TD13 plays · 97 yds · 3:5342% → 52%
Q1 0:49
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+11
57.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 11 yds to the EMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
57.2%
SNYDER, Cole pass short to the right incomplete intended for LILLIS, Hans thrown to the EMU19, clock 00:43. PENALTY UMA Pass Interference on ELLIS, Lake enforced 15 yards to the EMU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+32
55.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 32 yds to the MASS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+11
55.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Max Reese for 11 yds to the MASS 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
54.7%
MCMILLAN, Dontae rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the UMA6 (CRAIG, Derrieon). PENALTY UMA Offsides enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the UMA7 to the UMA3 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5MISSED FG15 plays · 51 yds · 7:1350% → 45%
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
50.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 10 yds to the MASS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-10
51.7%
Massachusetts Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dominick Mazotti) to the MASS 38Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+19
51.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 19 yds to the EMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
53.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Keshawn Brown for 9 yds to the EMU 21Similar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-15
50.4%
Massachusetts Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brandon Campbell) to the EMU 30Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 24
OPP 30
+8
48.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 8 yds to the EMU 22Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 16
OPP 22
-3
47.6%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by James Djonkam for a loss of 3 yards to the EMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3457% → 56%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
43.0%
SNYDER, Cole pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SINGLETON, Oran broken up by CAMERON JR., Jerrod at the UMA25, clock 06:01. PENALTY UMA Pass Interference on CAMERON JR., Jerrod enforced 15 yards to the UMA43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
42.6%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MASS 49Similar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
44.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 17 yds to the EMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7DOWNS10 plays · 32 yds · 2:2545% → 43%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
44.5%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MASS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
45.4%
Taisun Phommachanh run for no gain to the MASS 36 Taisun Phommachanh fumbled, recovered by MASS return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-6
44.1%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Peyton Price for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 30Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+31
42.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 31 yds to the EMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
47.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 3 yds to the EMU 36Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 7
OPP 36
-7
43.3%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Donovan Green and Justin Jefferson for a loss of 7 yards to the EMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8TD8 plays · 57 yds · 0:3162% → 72%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+29
38.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 29 yds to the MASS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9END OF HALF4 plays · 11 yds · 0:2529% → 29%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
29.4%
Massachusetts Penalty, Delay Of Game (Taisun Phommachanh) to the MASS 33Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+11
28.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jalen John for 11 yds to the MASS 44Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+11
29.6%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jalen John for 11 yds to the EMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
29.3%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Justin Jefferson for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5370% → 69%
MASSDrive 11TD11 plays · 70 yds · 5:2431% → 44%
Q3 14:07
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+5
33.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jalen John for 5 yds to the EMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
34.0%
PHOMMACHANH, Taisun pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SIMPSON, Anthony thrown to the EMU0. PENALTY EMU Pass Interference on MCNULTY, Dramarian enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the EMU10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12FG10 plays · 73 yds · 3:5462% → 71%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
37.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 40 yds to the MASS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
34.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 5 yds to the MASS 30Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+10
35.1%
Massachusetts Penalty, Defensive Holding (Arsheen Jiles) to the MASS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13MISSED FG11 plays · 57 yds · 4:5429% → 25%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
32.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for a loss of 1 yard to the EMU 43Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+6
31.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Keshawn Brown for 6 yds to the EMU 33Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-10
34.0%
PHOMMACHANH, Taisun pass to the left incomplete intended for GALBAN, Sterling broken up by MCNULTY, Dramarian at the EMU21. PENALTY UMA Holding on TERLAAK, Wyatt enforced 10 yards from the EMU27 to the EMU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 18
OPP 37
+9
27.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jalen John for 9 yds to the EMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14FG15 plays · 59 yds · 7:0175% → 92%
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+33
26.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 33 yds to the MASS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+10
18.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 10 yds to the MASS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
12.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Dontae McMillan for a loss of 5 yards to the MASS 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3710% → 8%
EMUDrive 16TD2 plays · 33 yds · 0:2995% → 99%
MASSDrive 17TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:371% → 5%
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 9 yds to the MASS 34Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
1.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to CJ Hester for 6 yds to the MASS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
1.1%
PHOMMACHANH, Taisun pass short to the right incomplete intended for MAZOTTI, Dominick thrown to the EMU37, clock 04:12. PENALTY EMU Face mask on EVANS, Carter enforced 15 yards from the EMU41 to the EMU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-7
1.2%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Justin Jefferson and Peyton Price for a loss of 7 yards to the EMU 33Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 17
OPP 33
+19
1.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Sterling Galban for 19 yds to the EMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
1.2%
PHOMMACHANH, Taisun pass to the right incomplete intended for SIMPSON, Anthony thrown to the EMU0. PENALTY EMU Pass Interference on WHITE, Daiquan enforced 12 yards to the EMU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18END OF GAME10 plays · 8 yds · 3:0597% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:43
Jalen John run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK)
+10
TD · Q2 0:31
Oran Singleton 18 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Jesus Gomez Kick)
-9.4
TD · Q2 12:47
Cole Snyder 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)
-6.6