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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:08 · Maddux Trujillo 60 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q3 2:43: Maddux Trujillo 42 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +8.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:11: Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 58 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +20.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:52: Forrest Brock run for 8 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — TEM win probability +34.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:46: Durell Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +40.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:00: Jordan Wright 96 Yd Fumble Return — CONN win probability +19.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TEM made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
- Q1 11:02CONN 4th & 1 at TEM 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.4%71% to convertField goal86.2%−0.170% to makePunt85.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:06TEM 4th & 17 at TEM 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snapGo for it14.0%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.2%average punt
- Q1 7:51CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snapGo for it85.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.1%average punt
- Q1 6:25CONN 4th & 12 at TEM 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snapGo for it84.6%−0.122% to convertField goalTheir call84.7%66% to makePunt84.0%−0.7average punt
- Q1 5:35TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it14.5%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.7%average punt
- Q1 3:09CONN 4th & 9 at TEM 46, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snapGo for it84.2%−0.132% to convertField goal83.9%−0.323% to makePuntTheir call84.3%average punt
- Q2 14:56TEM 4th & 4 at CONN 47, down 3Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snapGo for it17.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 13:36CONN 4th & 11 at CONN 9, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snapGo for it81.4%−0.624% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
- Q2 11:43TEM 4th & 8 at CONN 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snapGo for it17.8%−0.134% to convertField goal17.4%−0.525% to makePuntTheir call17.8%average punt
- Q2 10:32CONN 4th & 13 at CONN 9, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snapGo for it79.8%−0.818% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.5%average punt
- Q2 8:31CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 34, down 4Close callPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 5:55TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 24, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snapGo for it24.1%−0.838% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.0%average punt
- Q2 1:45CONN 4th & 6 at TEM 6, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snapGo for it71.0%−0.331% to convertField goalTheir call71.3%91% to makePunt65.8%−5.5average punt
- Q2 1:30TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 27, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snapGo for it24.9%−1.033% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.9%average punt
- Q2 0:08CONN 4th & 17 at TEM 17, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snapGo for it70.9%−1.713% to convertField goalTheir call72.7%80% to makePunt68.8%−3.9average punt
- Q3 11:08TEM 4th & 11 at CONN 42, down 2Close callKicked a field goal · 23.3% before the snapGo for it23.4%−0.527% to convertField goalTheir call23.1%−0.830% to makePunt23.9%average punt
- Q3 9:05TEM 4th & 11 at CONN 14, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snapGo for it30.1%−1.923% to convertField goalTheir call32.0%84% to makePunt23.4%−8.5average punt
- Q3 4:56TEM 4th & 22 at TEM 25, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snapGo for it29.4%−5.67% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.0%average punt
- Q3 2:43TEM 4th & 20 at CONN 23, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snapGo for it30.1%−5.39% to convertField goalTheir call35.4%70% to makePunt23.2%−12.2average punt
- Q4 8:31CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 33, down 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 43.3% before the snapGo for it42.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.0%−1.0average punt
- Q4 7:22TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 29, up 4Close callPunted · 63.9% before the snapGo for it65.0%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.3%−0.7average punt
- Q4 1:52TEM 4th & 1 at CONN 10, down 3Numbers favored field goal by 7.0 ptsWent for it · 30.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.3%−7.071% to convertField goal36.3%88% to makePunt10.8%−25.5average punt
- Q4 0:00TEM 4th & 1 at CONN 1, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.5%59% to convertField goal40.2%−12.294% to makePunt7.9%−44.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 10:32TEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.0%97% to makeGo for two21.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:11CONN Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.6%97% to makeGo for two73.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:52TEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.4%97% to makeGo for two54.0%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 3:46CONN Touchdown, up 2 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call72.5%−0.997% to makeGo for two73.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCONNDrive 1DOWNS9 plays · 52 yds · 3:5788% → 87%
Q1 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 15 yds to the CONN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
87.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 11 yds to the TEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+8
87.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 8 yds to the TEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 1:5313% → 14%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
86.8%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Dante Wright for a loss of 1 yard to the TEM 22Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+2
86.6%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Dante Wright for 2 yds to the TEM 24Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-8
86.5%
Forrest Brock sacked by Jayden McDonald for a loss of 8 yards to the TEM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2186% → 86%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
86.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 7 yds to the CONN 33Similar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+43
85.6%
Connor Stutz punt for 43 yds , Dante Wright returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TEM 23, Wright fumble at the TEM 23 recovered by CONNSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
86.2%
EDWARDS, Cam rush to the left for a gain of 10 yards to the TU13 (KEATON, Andreas), clock 07:37. PENALTY UCONN Holding on HOEH, Wes enforced 10 yards from the TU23 to the TU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4FG4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0086% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4714% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 37 yds · 2:1886% → 85%
TEMDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 41 yds · 3:0615% → 17%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
84.9%
Forrest Brock pass complete to James Della Pesca for 1 yd to the TEM 25Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+22
84.6%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Dante Wright for 22 yds to the TEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+1
83.3%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 1 yd to the CONN 47Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
83.5%
Dante Atton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1484% → 82%
Q2 14:12
3RD & 6
OWN 14
-7
82.9%
(14:12) FAGNANO, Joe scrambles to the right for a gain of 22 yards to the UCONN36, out of bounds, clock 14:06. PENALTY UCONN Holding on LUNDT, Chase enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the UCONN14 to the UCONN7 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4717% → 17%
Q2 11:43
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
82.8%
Dante Atton punt for 33 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT TD4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0583% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5979% → 77%
Q2 9:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
77.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 5 yds fumbled, forced by Jaylen Lewis, recovered by CONN Louis Hansen L. Hansen return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:3123% → 24%
Q2 7:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-10
75.9%
(07:48) QB Keeper DOUGLAS, Tyler rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the TU25 (DIXON-WILLIAMS, Malik;BRINSON, D'Mon), clock 07:47. PENALTY TU Holding on DELLA PESCA, James enforced 10 yards from the TU23 to the TU13 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+9
76.0%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Antwain Littleton for 9 yds to the TEM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13FG15 plays · 53 yds · 3:5976% → 76%
Q2 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
75.7%
(05:00) FAGNANO, Joe pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BELL, Skyler thrown to the TU29, clock 04:56. PENALTY TU Offsides on BLACK, Diwun enforced 5 yards from the UCONN47 to the TU48 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+6
76.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the TEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
75.7%
Temple Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaylen Lewis) to the TEM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
76.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Louis Hansen for 7 yds to the TEM 13Similar
Q2 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
75.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 3 yds to the TEM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:1427% → 26%
CONNDrive 15FG18 plays · 51 yds · 1:1575% → 80%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
76.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Durell Robinson for 1 yd to the CONN 48Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+10
76.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Louis Hansen for 10 yds to the TEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+15
76.2%
Temple Penalty, Targeting on WOODBURY, D.J. enforced (D.J. Woodbury Sr.) to the TEM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+12
74.4%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Cam Edwards for 12 yds to the TEM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
77.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Louis Hansen for 5 yds to the TEM 26Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+16
75.4%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 16 yds to the TEM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-7
73.7%
UConn Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Joe Fagnano) to the TEM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
78.0%
(00:02) Kneel down by TEAM at TU24 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17FG12 plays · 39 yds · 3:4522% → 29%
CONNDrive 18INT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1372% → 65%
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Louis Hansen for 5 yds to the CONN 30Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-12
70.6%
Joe Fagnano pass intercepted Jaylen Lewis return for 12 yds to the CONN 27Similar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
65.1%
(09:54) BROCK, Forrest pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Dante thrown to the UCONN7, clock 09:51. PENALTY UCONN Roughing the Passer on BANKS, Jevon enforced 15 yards from the TU00 to the TU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19MISSED FG4 plays · 13 yds · 0:3735% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20PUNT11 plays · 6 yds · 3:1571% → 66%
Q3 8:20
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
68.7%
FAGNANO, Joe pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GATHINGS, Jasaiah broken up by JOHNSON, Jamel at the UCONN44, clock 08:20. PENALTY TU Personal Foul on BLACK, Diwun enforced 15 yards from the UCONN23 to the UCONN38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 33
OWN 26
+3
66.2%
Connor Stutz punt for 40 yds , Dante Wright returns for 3 yds to the TEM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 0:4834% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22FUMBLE1 play · -12 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
67.6%
Joe Fagnano run for a loss of 12 yards to the CONN 13 Joe Fagnano fumbled, recovered by TEM Tra Thomas T. Thomas return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23FG4 plays · -10 yds · 1:5440% → 46%
CONNDrive 24TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3057% → 78%
TEMDrive 25INT9 plays · 43 yds · 3:0524% → 28%
Q3 0:45
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
76.1%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Dante Wright for 5 yds to the TEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+13
72.8%
Forrest Brock pass complete to John Adams for 13 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
72.0%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 4 yds to the CONN 44Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+8
71.9%
Forrest Brock pass complete to John Adams for 8 yds to the CONN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-16
71.7%
Forrest Brock pass intercepted Malik Dixon-Williams return for 16 yds to the CONN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26INT4 plays · 14 yds · 1:4480% → 81%
Q4 12:05
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-25
80.7%
Joe Fagnano pass intercepted Elijah Deravil return for 25 yds to the CONN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 27TD5 plays · 44 yds · 2:0229% → 65%
CONNDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1648% → 46%
TEMDrive 29PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0462% → 64%
Q4 7:22
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
35.8%
Dante Atton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 30TD10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3046% → 87%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
46.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Durell Robinson for no gain to the CONN 30Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+32
40.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Brett Buckman for 32 yds to the TEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
48.9%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 9 yds to the TEM 29Similar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
51.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Brett Buckman for no gain to the TEM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 31FUMBLE RETURN TD15 plays · 71 yds · 3:4527% → 5%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
73.1%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Dante Wright for 21 yds to the TEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:46
Durell Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+40.6
TD · Q4 9:52
Forrest Brock run for 8 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
-34.9
TD · Q3 2:11
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 58 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+20.9