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BUF

Buffalo 3 at UConn 47

CONN
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:43 · Connor Stutz punt for 33 yds, downed at the BUF 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense+30.3Score differential+22.3Pregame prior+7.9Blowout margin+9.7Garbage-time factor+8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:32: Cam Edwards run for 43 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +2.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:09: Chris Freeman 39 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +5.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 5:18: Chris Freeman 22 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +2.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:13: Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 40 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +6.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:12: Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 70 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 14:04BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:49CONN 4th & 8 at BUF 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:42BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:30BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:28CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:13BUF 4th & 1 at CONN 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−1.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:09CONN 4th & 6 at BUF 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:49BUF 4th & 19 at BUF 16, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:09CONN 4th & 19 at CONN 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−2.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:37BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 7, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:18CONN 4th & 3 at BUF 4, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.7%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−7.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:00BUF 4th & 26 at BUF 6, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:39BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 15, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:43CONN 4th & 9 at BUF 37, up 27
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:15BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 10, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:04BUF 4th & 1 at CONN 16, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:57BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 32, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:00CONN 4th & 8 at BUF 9, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:30BUF 4th & 9 at CONN 9, down 44
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:32CONN 4th & 2 at BUF 30, up 44
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:49BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 30, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:32CONN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:13CONN Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:12CONN Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:33CONN Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:56CONN Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5531% → 31%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.1%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the BUF 28Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
69.0%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUF 31Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
69.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+9
69.0%
Ethan Duane punt for 44 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 9 yds to the CONN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:0969% → 69%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
69.0%
Cam Edwards run for 5 yds to the CONN 39Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+2
69.0%
Nick Evers pass complete to Cam Edwards for 2 yds to the CONN 41Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+4
68.9%
Nick Evers run for 4 yds to the CONN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
69.0%
Cam Edwards run for 13 yds to the BUF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
69.0%
Nick Evers run for 4 yds to the BUF 38Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+9
69.0%
Nick Evers pass complete to Skyler Bell for 9 yds to the BUF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
69.1%
Mel Brown run for 4 yds to the BUF 25Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+16
69.1%
Nick Evers pass complete to Skyler Bell for 16 yds to the BUF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
69.1%
Nick Evers run for 1 yd to the BUF 8Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
69.1%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
68.8%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
68.9%
Chris Freeman 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1831% → 31%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 4 yds to the BUF 29Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
68.8%
Victor Snow run for 6 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
68.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
68.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 4 yds to the BUF 39Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
68.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+22
69.1%
Ethan Duane punt for 40 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 22 yds to the CONN 43Similar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
69.2%
(06:30) BROWN, Mel rush up the middle for a gain of 10 yards to the BUFF47 (MURDOCK, Red;FUQUA, Marcus), clock 06:28. PENALTY UCONN Holding on FORTIN, Christopher enforced 10 yards from the UCONN43 to the UCONN33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:4269% → 72%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+5
68.5%
Nick Evers pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 5 yds to the CONN 38Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+15
68.6%
Buffalo Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Solomon Brown) to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
69.4%
Nick Evers sacked by Shaun Dolac for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 43Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+43
72.3%
Cam Edwards run for 43 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0129% → 28%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.8%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
70.8%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 12 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
70.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 2 yds to the BUF 41Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
70.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
71.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
72.1%
Ethan Duane punt for 42 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5972% → 71%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
72.0%
Mel Brown run for 4 yds to the CONN 21Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
72.0%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
71.7%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
71.3%
Connor Stutz punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0829% → 28%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
71.0%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 9 yds to the CONN 33Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
70.4%
Jacqez Barksdale run for no gain to the CONN 33Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 1
OPP 33
0
70.9%
Jacqez Barksdale run for no gain to the CONN 33Similar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
71.8%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for no gain to the CONN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:5873% → 79%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
72.6%
Cam Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 32Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+3
72.5%
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the CONN 35Similar
Q2 14:29
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+5
72.3%
(14:29) EVERS, Nick pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GATHINGS, Jasaiah thrown to the BUFF45, clock 14:27. PENALTY BUFF Offsides on MURDOCK, Red enforced 5 yards from the UCONN35 to the UCONN40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+10
72.8%
Cam Edwards run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
50
+7
73.6%
Nick Evers pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 7 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+6
73.8%
Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the BUF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
73.9%
Nick Evers pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 5 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+7
74.2%
Durell Robinson run for 7 yds to the BUF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
74.3%
Nick Evers run for 2 yds to the BUF 23Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
74.4%
Nick Evers run for 2 yds to the BUF 21Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
74.3%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
79.4%
Chris Freeman 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2123% → 22%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
77.2%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Langston Hardy for a loss of 6 yards to the BUF 19Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-3
77.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUF 16Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
78.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+1
78.5%
Ethan Duane punt for 39 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 1 yd to the CONN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:3081% → 79%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
81.0%
Nick Evers pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 7 yds to the BUF 47Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
81.3%
Nick Evers run for 4 yds to the BUF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
81.4%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Red Murdock for a loss of 4 yards to the BUF 47Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
81.3%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
80.8%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 14
OPP 47
-5
79.2%
UConn Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CONN 48Similar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 19
OWN 48
0
79.2%
Connor Stutz punt for 51 yds, downed at the BUF 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2921% → 18%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
79.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 4 yds to the BUF 5Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+2
79.5%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUF 7Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
80.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 4
OWN 7
+33
80.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 48 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 33 yds to the BUF 22Similar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
81.8%
(06:29) FAGNANO, Joe pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GATHINGS, Jasaiah thrown to the BUFF0, clock 06:26. PENALTY BUFF Pass Interference on PLEASANT III, Eddie enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the BUFF11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12FG
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:0782% → 84%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
81.8%
Cam Edwards run for 5 yds to the BUF 6Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
82.0%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the BUF 4Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
81.8%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
84.0%
Chris Freeman 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 2:1218% → 16%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
81.8%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 21Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-5
82.1%
Buffalo Penalty, False Start (Javien Cuff) to the BUF 16Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 16
OWN 16
-5
82.4%
Buffalo Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the BUF 11Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 21
OWN 11
+6
82.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 6 yds to the BUF 17Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 15
OWN 17
-11
82.9%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Langston Hardy for a loss of 11 yards to the BUF 6Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 26
OWN 6
0
83.7%
Ethan Duane punt for 58 yds, downed at the CONN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 1:0886% → 95%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
86.1%
Durell Robinson run for 6 yds to the CONN 42Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
86.6%
Durell Robinson run for 2 yds to the CONN 44Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
85.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
50
0
86.1%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
50
+1
85.9%
Durell Robinson run for 1 yd to the BUF 49Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+9
87.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 9 yds to the BUF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
94.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 40 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 1:118% → 6%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
92.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 16 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
92.0%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 6 yds to the BUF 47Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
91.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Javien Cuff for 5 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
91.6%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 8 yds to the CONN 40Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+11
91.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Javien Cuff for 11 yds to the CONN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
93.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+47
93.9%
Upton Bellenfant 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4793% → 98%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.4%
Joe Fagnano run for 5 yds to the CONN 30Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
93.8%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+70
98.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 70 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:254% → 3%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
95.7%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Tui Faumuina-Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the BUF 13Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
96.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+2
96.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 2 yds to the BUF 15Similar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
97.1%
Ethan Duane punt for 47 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:5099% → 99%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
98.5%
Joe Fagnano run for 5 yds to the CONN 43Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+15
98.7%
Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (Dion Crawford) to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.7%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
98.7%
Mel Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 39Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+7
98.8%
Joe Fagnano run for 7 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 4
OPP 32
-5
98.9%
UConn Penalty, Illegal Snap on HOEH, Wes enforced (Wes Hoeh) to the BUF 37Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
98.9%
Connor Stutz punt for 33 yds, downed at the BUF 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:221% → 1%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
99.1%
Lamar Sperling run for 1 yd to the BUF 5Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
99.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 9
OWN 5
+5
99.1%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the BUF 10Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
99.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 47 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 43Similar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.1%
(08:09) FAGNANO, Joe pass up the middle incomplete intended for HONIG, Alex thrown to the BUFF45, clock 08:07. PENALTY BUFF Roughing the Passer on COLCLOUGH, Antonio enforced 15 yards from the UCONN43 to the BUFF42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:3299% → 100%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 7 yds to the BUF 35Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+4
99.2%
Joe Fagnano run for 4 yds to the BUF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
99.4%
Cam Edwards run for 11 yds to the BUF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
99.4%
Joe Fagnano run for 2 yds to the BUF 18Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+6
99.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the BUF 12Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+12
99.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 12 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:251% → 0%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
99.5%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 20 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
99.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Ryan Daly for 13 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the CONN 35Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+10
99.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 10 yds to the CONN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
99.6%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the CONN 21Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
99.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+5
99.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 5 yds to the CONN 16Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 1
OPP 16
-1
99.6%
C.J. Ogbonna run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
99.6%
Durell Robinson run for 8 yds to the CONN 25Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+11
99.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Ezeriah Anderson for 11 yds to the CONN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+41
99.7%
Durell Robinson run for 41 yds to the BUF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.8%
Mel Brown run for 23 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.8%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the BUF 32Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
99.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
99.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+24
99.8%
Ethan Duane punt for 42 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 24 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24FG
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
50
+22
99.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Mel Brown for 22 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
99.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 17 yds to the BUF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.8%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.8%
Mel Brown run for 2 yds to the BUF 9Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
99.8%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
99.8%
Chris Freeman 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:300% → 0%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
Buffalo Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the BUF 20Similar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Gunnar Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
99.9%
UConn Penalty, Roughing the Passer on SIMON, Jayden enforced (Jayden Simon) to the CONN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.9%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Qua Sanders for 8 yds to the CONN 39Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
99.9%
Messiah Burch run for 1 yd to the CONN 38Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+14
99.9%
Messiah Burch run for 14 yds to the CONN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.9%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Tadd Barr for 4 yds to the CONN 20Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+11
99.9%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Tadd Barr for 11 yds to the CONN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Gunnar Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Gunnar Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Gunnar Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
-16
99.9%
Gunnar Gray pass intercepted Rante Jones return for 16 yds to the CONN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 54 yds · 5:42100% → 100%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.9%
Durell Robinson run for 4 yds to the CONN 20Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+17
99.9%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shamar Porter for 17 yds to the CONN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Durell Robinson run for 4 yds to the CONN 41Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Mel Brown run for 5 yds to the CONN 46Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Mel Brown run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
50
+12
99.9%
Tucker McDonald pass complete to Mel Brown for 12 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
99.9%
Mel Brown run for 6 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+2
99.9%
Mel Brown run for 2 yds to the BUF 30Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Tucker McDonald run for no gain to the BUF 30Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 2
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Tucker McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Messiah Burch run for no gain to the BUF 30Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Gunnar Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Gunnar Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Ethan Duane punt for 39 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
100.0%
(01:46) [NH] Kneel down by UCONN at UCONN29 (team loss of 2), clock 01:41.Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-2
100.0%
(01:06) [NH] Kneel down by UCONN at UCONN27 (team loss of 2), clock 01:03.Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 14
OWN 27
-2
100.0%
(00:31) [NH] Kneel down by UCONN at UCONN25 (team loss of 2), clock 00:27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:13
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 40 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+6.9
FG · Q2 11:09
Chris Freeman 39 yd FG GOOD
+5.2
TD · Q3 14:12
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 70 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com