2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreFAU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:09 · Chris Freeman 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:32: Nick Evers pass complete to Mel Brown for 5 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +4.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:50: Durell Robinson run for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +12.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:09: Nick Evers run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +5.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:47: Chris Freeman 35 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:17: CJ Campbell Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK) — FAU win probability +4.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 4FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 14:02FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snapGo for it46.9%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.9%average punt
- Q1 10:09CONN 4th & 4 at FAU 16, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snapGo for it53.8%46% to convertField goalTheir call53.8%−<0.181% to makePunt53.1%−0.7average punt
- Q1 9:07FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snapGo for it45.2%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.3%average punt
- Q1 3:27FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snapGo for it43.6%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.2%average punt
- Q2 7:52FAU 4th & 8 at CONN 45, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snapGo for it34.1%−0.134% to convertField goal33.2%−1.025% to makePuntTheir call34.2%average punt
- Q2 0:55FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snapGo for it16.5%−1.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.2%average punt
- Q3 8:31CONN 4th & 1 at FAU 4, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.3%65% to convertField goal86.5%−2.893% to makePunt78.9%−10.4average punt
- Q3 5:47CONN 4th & 4 at FAU 17, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.4%47% to convertField goalTheir call95.3%−0.180% to makePunt92.1%−3.3average punt
- Q4 5:02CONN 4th & 9 at FAU 33, up 27Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−<0.132% to convertField goal99.9%49% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:37FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 28, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 11:32CONN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.5%97% to makeGo for two64.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:50CONN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.0%97% to makeGo for two78.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:09CONN Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:17FAU Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.0%97% to makeGo for two3.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:26CONN Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:45CONN Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:57FAU Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.3%45% to convert
- Q4 5:02CONN Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5846% → 46%
CONNDrive 2FG10 plays · 57 yds · 3:5154% → 56%
Q1 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
54.3%
Nick Evers pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 11 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
54.6%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, Roughing the Passer on HILL, Daedae enforced (15 Yards) to the FAU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
54.9%
Nick Evers pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 5 yds to the FAU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5045% → 44%
CONNDrive 4FUMBLE8 plays · 38 yds · 3:0856% → 56%
Q1 6:14
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+10
56.9%
Nick Evers run for 10 yds to the FAU 37 Nick Evers fumbled, recovered by FAU Eddie Williams E. Williams return for 4 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:2744% → 43%
Q1 3:29
4TH & 6
OPP 49
-5
56.6%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, Delay Of Game (Wendol Philord) to the FAU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6TD14 plays · 80 yds · 6:4856% → 64%
Q1 3:01
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+43
56.4%
Nick Evers pass complete to Skyler Bell for 43 yds to the FAU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
59.0%
(13:45) EVERS, Nick pass up the middle complete for 8 yards to HONIG, Alex caught at the FAU0 and advanced to the FAU0, TOUCHDOWN UCONN, score nullified by penalty, clock 13:43 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UCONN Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on FORTIN, Christopher enforced 5 yards from the FAU8 to the FAU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.0%
Nick Evers pass complete to Mel Brown for 5 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 3:3937% → 33%
Q2 11:06
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-10
62.4%
(11:06) FANCHER, Cam scrambles up the middle for a gain of 9 yards to the FAU42 (HARDY, Langston), clock 11:00. PENALTY FAU Holding on ATCAVAGE, Alex enforced 10 yards from the FAU33 to the FAU23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
64.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Omari Hayes for 6 yds to the FAU 29Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-5
63.0%
(08:34) FANCHER, Cam pass short to the left incomplete intended for PLATT, Jayshon thrown to the UCONN39, clock 08:31. PENALTY Before the snap, FAU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UCONN40 to the UCONN45. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-5
63.7%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
67.4%
Logan Lupo punt for 36 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for no gain to the CONN 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8TD14 plays · 91 yds · 5:5565% → 86%
FAUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 0:5419% → 19%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 4 yds to the FAU 29Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
80.5%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, False Start (Zuberi Mobley) to the FAU 24Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
81.5%
Logan Lupo punt for 50 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 1 yd to the CONN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0586% → 86%
CONNDrive 11TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:5083% → 95%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
85.5%
Nick Evers pass complete to TJ Sheffield for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 45Similar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
88.9%
(10:19) ROBINSON, Durell rush to the left for a loss of 3 yards to the FAU30 (BRADLEY, Marlon), clock 10:18. PENALTY FAU Personal Foul on BRADLEY, Marlon enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the FAU27 to the FAU13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12INT2 plays · 8 yds · 0:206% → 6%
CONNDrive 13FG4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5496% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14TD9 plays · 72 yds · 3:241% → 5%
Q3 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+16
99.2%
Cam Fancher pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 16 yds to the FAU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+26
99.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jabari Smith for 26 yds to the CONN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.5%
(02:24) FANCHER, Cam pass to the left incomplete intended for PLATT, Jayshon thrown to the UCONN15; QB hurried by CHOUTE, Kervins, clock 02:21. PENALTY UCONN Holding on RENWICK, Amir enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the UCONN7 to the UCONN3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4996% → 100%
Q3 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
95.3%
Durell Robinson run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16Uncategorized4 plays · 36 yds · 1:290% → 0%
CONNDrive 17TD4 plays · 46 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
FAUDrive 18TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:480% → 0%
CONNDrive 19TD8 plays · 57 yds · 4:50100% → 100%
FAUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 3:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Logan Lupo punt for 45 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21END OF GAME8 plays · 42 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 0:32
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+14
100.0%
SHABAN, Daniel rush up the middle for no gain to the FAU28 (DUNNAM, Phillip;BRANTLEY JR, Eric), clock 00:32. PENALTY FAU Personal Foul on JERRELS, Jarrett enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the FAU28 to the FAU14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-15
100.0%
UConn Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the FAU 29Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 25
OPP 29
-2
100.0%
(00:24) [NHSG] Kneel down by UCONN at FAU31 (team loss of 2), clock 00:20.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:50
Durell Robinson run for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+12.9
TD · Q3 8:09
Nick Evers run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q2 11:32
Nick Evers pass complete to Mel Brown for 5 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+4.7